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Thread: Playoff Projections (Week 10)

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    Default Playoff Projections (Week 10)

    Next week, they're for real.

    Playoff Projections (Week 10)

    1-5A- EP Franklin*, EP Montwood, EP El Dorado*, EP Americas
    2-5A- San Angelo Central*, Amarillo, Lub. Monty*, Amarillo Tascosa
    3-5A- Abilene, Abilene Cooper, Odessa Permian*, Midland*
    4-5A- Arlington Martin*, Arlington Lamar, Arlington, Arlington Bowie*
    5-5A- Cedar Hill*, Mansfield, Mansfield Timberview, Duncanville*
    6-5A- Euless Trinity*, Colleyville Heritage, Hurst Bell*, Grapevine
    7-5A- Southlake Carroll*, Denton Guyer, Keller Central*, Keller Fossil Ridge
    8-5A- Allen*, FM Marcus, Hebron, Plano West*

    9-5A- Dallas Skyline*, Dallas Jesuit, Richardson Berkner*, Lake Highlands
    10-5A- Garland*, McKinney Boyd*, Rowlett, Sachse
    11-5A- DeSoto*, Longview, Mesquite Horn, Mesquite*
    12-5A- Copperas Cove, A&M Consolidated*, Temple, Belton*
    13-5A- Klein Oak*, Spring Dekaney, Klein Collins, Spring*
    14-5A- Lufkin, The Woodlands*, Kingwood*, TW College Park
    15-5A- Austin Westlake*, Austin Bowie*, Austin Anderson, Del Valle
    16-5A- Leander, RR Westwood*, Pflugerville, Round Rock*

    17-5A- Cy Fair*, Cy Falls*, Cy Woods, Cy Ranch
    18-5A- Alief Taylor, Alief Elsik*, Eisenhower, Aldine Nimitz*
    19-5A- Katy, Cinco Ranch*, Memorial, Morton Ranch*
    20-5A- Hou. Lamar*, Hou. Bellaire*, Hou. Westside, Hou. Madison
    21-5A- La Porte, PA Memorial, North Shore*, Beaumont West Brook*
    22-5A- Deer Park*, Pasadena Dobie*, Pasadena Memorial, Pasadena
    23-5A- FB Hightower*, FB Bush, FB Elkins*, FB Marshall
    24-5A- Clear Springs, Pearland*, Clear Creek, Brazoswood*

    25-5A- Cibolo Steele, SA Wagner*, Converse Judson*, New Braunfels
    26-5A- SA Reagan, SA Madison*, SA Johnson, SA Churchill*
    27-5A- SA Brandeis, SA Warren*, SA Clark, SA Stevens*
    28-5A- SA East Central*, CC King, SA Southwest*, CC Carroll
    29-5A- Laredo Alexander, Del Rio*, Laredo United*, Eagle Pass
    30-5A- McAllen Memorial, Mission Sharyland*, McAllen, Donna*
    31-5A- Harlingen*, PSJA North, PSJA Memorial, Edinburg*
    32-5A- Weslaco, San Benito*, Los Fresnos*, Brownsville Pace

    Division 1

    Region 1


    EP Franklin vs. Lub. Monterey
    Odessa Permian vs. Arlington Bowie
    Cedar Hill vs. Hurst Bell
    Southlake Carroll vs. Plano West

    EP El Dorado vs. San Angelo Central
    Midland vs. Arlington Martin
    Duncanville vs. Euless Trinity
    Keller Central vs. Allen

    Region 2

    Dallas Skyline vs. McKinney Boyd
    DeSoto vs. Belton
    Klein Oak vs. Kingwood
    Austin Westlake vs. Round Rock

    Richardson Berkner vs. Garland
    Mesquite vs. A&M Consolidated
    Spring vs. The Woodlands
    Austin Bowie vs. RR Westwood

    Region 3

    Cy Fair vs. Aldine Nimitz
    Cinco Ranch vs. Houston Bellaire
    North Shore vs. Pasadena Dobie
    FB Hightower vs. Brazoswood

    Cy Falls vs. Alief Elsik
    Morton Ranch vs. Houston Lamar
    Beaumont West Brook vs. Deer Park
    FB Elkins vs. Pearland

    Region 4

    SA Wagner vs. SA Churchill
    SA Warren vs. SA Southwest
    Del Rio vs. Donna
    Harlingen vs. Los Fresnos

    Converse Judson vs. SA Madison
    SA Stevens vs. SA East Central
    Laredo United vs. Mission Sharyland
    Edinburg vs. San Benito

    Division 2

    Region 1

    EP Montwood vs. Amarillo Tascosa
    Abilene vs. Arlington
    Mansfield vs. Grapevine
    Denton Guyer vs. Hebron

    EP Americas vs. Amarillo
    Abilene Cooper vs. Arlington Lamar
    Mansfield Timberview vs. Colleyville Heritage
    Keller Fossil Ridge vs. FM Marcus

    Region 2

    Dallas Jesuit vs. Garland Sachse
    Longview vs. Temple
    Spring Dekaney vs. TW College Park
    Austin Anderson vs. Pflugerville

    Lake Highlands vs. Rowlett
    Mesquite Horn vs. Copperas Cove
    Klein Collins vs. Lufkin
    Del Valle vs. Leander

    Region 3

    Cy Woods vs. Aldine Eisenhower
    Katy vs. Houston Madison
    La Porte vs. Pasadena
    FB Bush vs. Clear Creek

    Cy Ranch vs. Alief Taylor
    Houston Memorial vs. Houston Westside
    Port Arthur Memorial vs. Pasadena Memorial
    FB Marshall vs. Clear Springs

    Region 4

    Cibolo Steele vs. SA Johnson
    SA Brandeis vs. CC Carroll
    Laredo Alexander vs. McAllen
    PSJA North vs. Brownsville Pace

    New Braunfels vs. SA Reagan
    SA Clark vs. CC King
    Eagle Pass vs. McAllen Memorial
    PSJA Memorial vs. Weslaco

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Playoff Projections (Week 10)

    I like Falls' bracket.
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    Default Re: Playoff Projections (Week 10)

    Quote Originally Posted by cyfallsbooster2 View Post
    I like Falls' bracket.
    Right up until you hit Deer Park. I hate to admit it, but they're a talented bunch and overlooked because of past history. The Deer have a solid club this year.
    GO DAWGS!

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    Default Re: Playoff Projections (Week 10)

    Quote Originally Posted by Dawg82 View Post
    Right up until you hit Deer Park. I hate to admit it, but they're a talented bunch and overlooked because of past history. The Deer have a solid club this year.
    Well, after the first week, most every team one faces should be pretty good.
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    Default Re: Playoff Projections (Week 10)

    I find the 3-5a prediction very interesting... OHS controls their own destiny... What makes yall feel they're gonna choke against a Lee team who has nothing left to play for and knows they will be putting their arch rivals in the playoffs if they win?

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    Default Re: Playoff Projections (Week 10)

    Quote Originally Posted by BackNBlack97 View Post
    I find the 3-5a prediction very interesting... OHS controls their own destiny... What makes yall feel they're gonna choke against a Lee team who has nothing left to play for and knows they will be putting their arch rivals in the playoffs if they win?
    I see it as a coin flip between the two games. I'm not completely convinced one way or the other.

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    Default Re: Playoff Projections (Week 10)

    Based on these projections here's a list of some potentially great games throughout the playoffs.

    D1 1st Round

    SLC vs. Plano West
    Keller Central vs. Allen
    Austin Westlake vs. Round Rock
    Austin Bowie vs. RR Westwood
    BWB vs. Deer Park

    D1 2nd Round (All games from here on out are assuming that these teams win obviously. However this does not mean i am predicting these matchups just saying i think they would be good games to watch.)

    Cedar Hill vs. SLC/Plano West
    Euless Trinity vs. Allen/Keller Central
    Skyline vs. Desoto
    Klein Oak vs. Westlake/Round Rock
    The Woodlands vs. Austin Bowie/RR Westwood
    BWB/Deer Park vs. Pearland

    D1 3rd Round

    Arlington Bowie vs. Cedar Hill/SLC/Plano West
    Arlington Martin vs. ET/Allen/Keller Central
    Cy Fair vs. North Shore
    Cy Falls vs. Pearland/BWB/Deer Park
    Harlingen vs. SA Wagner

    D1 4th Round

    Cedar Hill/SLC/Plano West/Arl. Bowie vs. ET/Allen/Keller Central/Arl. Martin (any matchup out of these 8 will be a great game!!)
    Cy Fair vs. Cy Falls/BWB/Pearland/Deer Park
    SA Wagner/Harlingen vs. Converse Judson

    D1 5th Round

    Any of the 8 from the R1 championship vs. Desoto/Skyline
    Cy Fair/Cy Falls/BWB/Pearland/Deer Park vs. Harlingen/SA Wagner/Judson

    D1 Championship

    Any combination of the teams from 5th Round games would make for a great game. No matter who is in the final though it's usually a good game to watch.

    D2 1st Round

    Abilene vs. Arlington
    Denton Guyer vs. Hebron
    Spring Dekaney vs. TW College Park
    Mesquite Horn vs. Copperas Cove (This game and the Guyer game look like the best matchups in the 1st round IMO)
    Klein Collins vs. Lufkin

    D2 2nd Round

    Colleyville Heritage vs. FM Marcus
    Klein Collins/Lufkin vs. Leander
    Cy Woods vs. Katy
    Cibolo Steele vs. SA Brandeis (maybe, could be a blowout)

    D2 3rd Round

    Abilene/Arlington vs. Denton Guyer/Hebron
    Arlington Lamar vs. Colleyville Heritage/FM Marcus
    Longview vs. TW College Park/Spring Dekaney
    Mesquite Horn/Copperas Cove vs. Klein Collins/Lufkin/Leander
    Katy vs. LaPorte

    D2 4th Round

    Abilene/Arlington/Denton Guyer/Hebron vs. Arl. Lamar/FM Marcus/Colleyville
    Longview/TW College Park/Spring Dekaney vs. Mesquite Horn/Copperas Cove/Klein Collins/Lufkin/Leander
    Katy vs. PA Memorial

    D2 5th Round

    The massive list that would combine the teams from the R1 4th Round game and the R2 4th Round game. The R1 vs R2 in D2 semi final will be a great game to watch no matter what the teams are.

    Then there's Katy/PA Memorial vs. Cibolo Steele for the R3 vs. R4 semi final, and I'm sure there's plenty of people who can't wait for this game.

    D2 Championship

    Although there isn't as many legit contenders in R3 and R4 as there is in R1 and R2 i think the top team that does make it from the R3/R4 side will be the favorite to win the championship. While some say close games make your team better, too many close games in the playoffs can wear a team out. Cibolo/PA Memorial/Katy are all well coached and they won't be unprepared just because they had an easy schedule through the playoffs. I predict a D2 Championship coming to winner of the R3/R4 semi final.

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    Default Re: Playoff Projections (Week 10)

    Quote Originally Posted by BackNBlack97 View Post
    I find the 3-5a prediction very interesting... OHS controls their own destiny... What makes yall feel they're gonna choke against a Lee team who has nothing left to play for and knows they will be putting their arch rivals in the playoffs if they win?
    I'm assuming Lee is out of the picture here but I'm not 100% sure that's the situation. Either way i would believe (and hope) that the Coach at Lee would be more worried about getting a W and ending their season on a high note rather than throwing a game just to keep their arch rivals out of the playoffs. If i were coach i would want to win and send that team to the playoffs just so i could go watch them lose the first round, that would be more satisfying than keeping them out. I'm not saying Midland will lose the first round just stating how i would approach the situation as a coach. Take care of your team before you worry about another coach's.

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    Default Re: Playoff Projections (Week 10)

    Quote Originally Posted by TrinityTrojan08-10 View Post
    I'm assuming Lee is out of the picture here but I'm not 100% sure that's the situation. Either way i would believe (and hope) that the Coach at Lee would be more worried about getting a W and ending their season on a high note rather than throwing a game just to keep their arch rivals out of the playoffs. If i were coach i would want to win and send that team to the playoffs just so i could go watch them lose the first round, that would be more satisfying than keeping them out. I'm not saying Midland will lose the first round just stating how i would approach the situation as a coach. Take care of your team before you worry about another coach's.
    I'm not necessarily saying he would throw the game but I'm not saying there's the extra added intensity that would be there if it were for a playoff spot... Their season is over, there is no way for them to make the playoffs, and even if Lee wins, they must win by 4 or more points for OHS to miss the playoffs, or Midland High must upset Abilene Cooper in addition to OHS losing... The playoff scenario is OHS wins and in, OHS loses and MHS (1-3 in district) beats Cooper (3-1 in district) and MHS is in, OHS loses by 3 or less and MHS loses and OHS is in. OHS loses by 4 and it's a tie on points between OHS and MHS so I'm not sure what happens then. OHS loses by 5+ and MHS is in. Lee is out by virtue of being -10 with a +12 limit per game and MHS being +3 right now and no possibility of point change this week... If both teams end up at +3 I'm not sure who goes in, but I do know that OHS beat MHS head to head...

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    Default Re: Playoff Projections (Week 10)

    Quote Originally Posted by BackNBlack97 View Post
    I'm not necessarily saying he would throw the game but I'm not saying there's the extra added intensity that would be there if it were for a playoff spot... Their season is over, there is no way for them to make the playoffs, and even if Lee wins, they must win by 4 or more points for OHS to miss the playoffs, or Midland High must upset Abilene Cooper in addition to OHS losing... The playoff scenario is OHS wins and in, OHS loses and MHS (1-3 in district) beats Cooper (3-1 in district) and MHS is in, OHS loses by 3 or less and MHS loses and OHS is in. OHS loses by 4 and it's a tie on points between OHS and MHS so I'm not sure what happens then. OHS loses by 5+ and MHS is in. Lee is out by virtue of being -10 with a +12 limit per game and MHS being +3 right now and no possibility of point change this week... If both teams end up at +3 I'm not sure who goes in, but I do know that OHS beat MHS head to head...
    As i stated before, i think coaches need to coach their team for the game that is coming up and not worry about what the other teams have going on. If Lee does have a chance, however slim it is, of making the playoffs then i think that Lee's coach should look at this game as a must win not a hey if we do win we knock our rivals out of the playoffs. I guess what I'm saying is even though Lee's outcome in their game effects the playoff implications of other teams, they need to take care of their own first and let the rest be sorted out by the officials who handle the tiebreakers and all the other formulas that go into deciding who made the playoffs.

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    Default Re: Playoff Projections (Week 10)

    Quote Originally Posted by TrinityTrojan08-10 View Post
    Cibolo/PA Memorial/Katy are all well coached and they won't be unprepared just because they had an easy schedule through the playoffs. I predict a D2 Championship coming to winner of the R3/R4 semi final.
    Katy yes. Cibolo, not sure. PAM...you've got to be kidding (as far as coaching--no disrespect intended). You think PAM had an easy road? Come play in 21-5A. The only team that's been successful against 21-5A is Katy. That doesn't say much for 19-5A, but it says a lot about Katy.....
    Last edited by Dawg82; 10-31-2011 at 12:45 PM.
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    Default Re: Playoff Projections (Week 10)

    Quote Originally Posted by TrinityTrojan08-10 View Post
    As i stated before, i think coaches need to coach their team for the game that is coming up and not worry about what the other teams have going on. If Lee does have a chance, however slim it is, of making the playoffs then i think that Lee's coach should look at this game as a must win not a hey if we do win we knock our rivals out of the playoffs. I guess what I'm saying is even though Lee's outcome in their game effects the playoff implications of other teams, they need to take care of their own first and let the rest be sorted out by the officials who handle the tiebreakers and all the other formulas that go into deciding who made the playoffs.
    I don't think there's a coach out there who would coach their kids down to lose a game... I am just saying that the letdown for the kids knowing they have been eliminated from the playoffs may impact the level of play... I wasn't implying they would throw the game...

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    Default Re: Playoff Projections (Week 10)

    Hmmm. Thought I saw one of the 8-5A posters say that in a three-way tie between Hebron, Plano West, and Plano East, West would be out on point differential. Plano East plays Lewisville this week, so they'll probably win, and obviously you're picking Marcus to beat Hebron.

    Might want to double check the tiebreakers there.

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    Default Re: Playoff Projections (Week 10)

    Im predicting an LBJ win and Eagle Pass loss for the Wolfpack to punch their first ever ticket to the playoffs (4th spot). Del Rio and United may switch depending on a United win against Alexander. If Alexander wins their game against United, then they are in the correct spots.
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    Default Re: Playoff Projections (Week 10)

    According to District 4-5A tiebreaker rules, the current projected order of finish (assuming, as you have, that Arlington beats Bowie and Lamar beats N. Crowley this Friday) should be:

    Arlington
    Arlington Martin*
    Arlington Lamar
    Arlington Bowie*

    Arlington High and Lamar should be switched in the seedings and brackets as you currently show.

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    Default Re: Playoff Projections (Week 10)

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom View Post
    Hmmm. Thought I saw one of the 8-5A posters say that in a three-way tie between Hebron, Plano West, and Plano East, West would be out on point differential. Plano East plays Lewisville this week, so they'll probably win, and obviously you're picking Marcus to beat Hebron.

    Might want to double check the tiebreakers there.
    Point differential is in head-to-head, not total. So if Hebron, West and East all end up 4-3, the only points that count are their games against each other.
    FOF


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    Default Re: Playoff Projections (Week 10)

    Quote Originally Posted by SWMHebron View Post
    Point differential is in head-to-head, not total. So if Hebron, West and East all end up 4-3, the only points that count are their games against each other.
    Yes, I understand that.

    Hebron: 20-point win over West, 3-point loss to East
    East: 3-point win over Hebron, 8-point loss to West
    West: 8-point win over East, 20-point loss to Hebron

    Obviously the West-Hebron spread is capped, but unless the cap is 13 or less, then the order is Hebron, East, West.

    I also understand that 8-5A doesn't go back to head-to-head once it goes to point differential, so East would get in ahead of West even though West beat them head-to-head. Correct me if I'm wrong on any of this.

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    Default Re: Playoff Projections (Week 10)

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom View Post
    Yes, I understand that.

    Hebron: 20-point win over West, 3-point loss to East
    East: 3-point win over Hebron, 8-point loss to West
    West: 8-point win over East, 20-point loss to Hebron

    Obviously the West-Hebron spread is capped, but unless the cap is 13 or less, then the order is Hebron, East, West.

    I also understand that 8-5A doesn't go back to head-to-head once it goes to point differential, so East would get in ahead of West even though West beat them head-to-head. Correct me if I'm wrong on any of this.
    You are correct. I think it is capped at 14 but I've read so many scenarios about so many districts I could easily be wrong about that.
    FOF


  19. #19
    All-Galaxy Tom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Playoff Projections (Week 10)

    Quote Originally Posted by SWMHebron View Post
    You are correct. I think it is capped at 14 but I've read so many scenarios about so many districts I could easily be wrong about that.
    Yeah. So for West to make the playoffs, either Hebron has to beat Marcus or Lewisville has to beat East. The former is certainly possible but not predicted here (otherwise Hebron would be the top seed in D2.) The latter is not likely.

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    Default Re: Playoff Projections (Week 10)

    Quote Originally Posted by Dawg82 View Post
    Katy yes. Cibolo, not sure. PAM...you've got to be kidding (as far as coaching--no disrespect intended). You think PAM had an easy road? Come play in 21-5A. The only team that's been successful against 21-5A is Katy. That doesn't say much for 19-5A, but it says a lot about Katy.....
    I agree to an extent. The coaching reared it's ugly head last week and in the WB game IMO. The rest of the games they were on point to me.
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