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cajun
05-19-2009, 05:56 PM
The Top 25

1. Florida
Two words, Tim Tebow. The Gators return the greatest player in college football history and the fastest defense in America. They have an SEC schedule that sets up nicely. At LSU on October 10th will be a test. But anything less than another BCS Championship will be a shocker. The Gators are loaded.

2. Oklahoma State
The Cowboys return quarterback Zac Robinson, tailback Kendall Hunter and receiver Dez Bryant. Defensively they will be vastly improved. A win over Georgia early will set in motion a memorable season for “The Man” Mike Gundy. Yes you are reading this correctly. It’s an Oklahoma school, but a different one. With Georgia, Texas Tech and Texas all at home this could be a year they won’t soon forget in Stillwater.

3. Texas
Quarterback Colt McCoy is on a mission. The talented and vocal quarterback needs a ground game to take some of the pressure off him and receivers Jordan Shipley and Malcolm Williams. True freshmen running back Chris Whaley must make an impact. Texas verses Oklahoma State at Stillwater October 30th will be a war with the winner looking good down the stretch.

4. Southern Cal
The Trojans will be breaking in a new quarterback and they have to replace eight starters on defense including linebackers Brian Cushing, Rey Maualuga and Clay Matthews. At Ohio State September 12th is early enough that if they take a loss they could win out and be sniffing around for a title chance at season's end.

5. Alabama
Rebuilding an offensive line takes some time. Especially when breaking in a new quarterback. But after watching the Tide’s spring game I saw a defense that will take over games. Defense, a quarterback who can’t make mistakes and Nick Saban. By season's end, Alabama could be the second best team in the country and SEC.

6. Virginia Tech
Quarterback Tyrod Taylor now has big game experience and the athleticism to take over games. A strong defense returns and of course in Blacksburg special teams will win at least one game. The opener is a killer but a win could send the Hokies flying high all season. With a win over Alabama the Hokies could be the team to beat in the ACC. A loss could take weeks to recover from in a competitive ACC.

7. LSU
Nobody is talking about Les Miles’ Tigers. Knowing Les, that’s a good thing. The Tigers are fast, skilled and have a young freshmen quarterback coming in that could have the nation a buzz by mid season. Tailback Charles Scott and receiver Brandon LaFell are elite. At Georgia on October 3rd , at Alabama on November 7th and at Ole Miss on November 21st. Ouch! But winning two of those could have the Tigers looking good at BCS time.

8. Ohio State
In a weak league Ohio State is one team that has the skill to compete nationally and will get to prove that early against Southern California in Columbus. The Buckeyes have an improved offensive line returning and a physical defense led by an experienced defensive line. With one in conference challenge this year November 7th at Penn State look for the Buckeyes to again be in the discussion for a title match-up if they come out of State College with a win.

9. North Carolina
The Tarheels return the best defensive line in the country. Their defensive tackles are ready for the Sunday league now. If quarterback T.J. Yates can stay healthy, look out! The schedule is feisty.. at Georgia Tech on September 26th, at Virginia Tech on October 29th and at NC State on November 28th all will pose a challenge. But don’t discount Butch Davis’ gang. These guys are skilled and under the radar nationally.

10. Mississippi
The Rebels are good folks. Real good. Led by quarterback Jevan Snead, receiver Shay Hodge and multi-talented Dexter McCluster, and returning most of their offensive line, the score board will be lighting up in Oxford. Defensively they are good enough to exploit a weak non-conference schedule competitive enough to take every game down to the wire. And, with the experienced Snead behind center look for the Rebels to take up where they left off last season. Yes, they are for real!

11. Oklahoma
Last year's Heisman Trophy winner quarterback Sam Bradford and the Sooners will be as good as their new offensive line. And new they will be. The Sooners are replacing four starters across the front. Bradford has playmakers in his arsenal, but it’s hard to throw when your running for your life, or on your back. November 28th at home against Oklahoma State will be interesting and equally fun will be Longhorns in Dallas October 17th.

12. Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets return nine starters on offense, including quarterback Josh Nesbitt and running backs Jonathan Dwyer and Roddy Jones. The schedule is interesting having Clemson on September 10th, North Carolina on Sept 26th, Virginia Tech on October 17th and Wake Forest on November 7th all at home. But they play three games in the first 12 days of the season. GT is a decent schedule away from contending for the BCS title.

13. South Florida
Senior quarterback Matt Grothe is posed to lead the Bulls to their first Big East championship. The gutty senior has weapons all around him on offense and a defense led by arguably the nation’s best edge rusher in George Selvie. USF travels to Tallahassee September 26th and entertains Miami November 28. Both sexy games with conference chest pounding ramifications at stake. However their season will come down to October 30th when West Virginia arrives in Tampa for the Big East championship.

14. Boise State
Boise State returns starters six starters on offense and six on defense from a team that ran the table last year finishing 12-0. Quarterback Kellen Moore and talented receivers Austin Pettis and Titus Young will create havoc for opposing defensive coordinators. At Fresno State on September 18th and at Tulsa on October 14th will either break or make their BCS positioning.

15. California
Perhaps the nation’s best tailback Jahvid Best will lead Cal who is flying undetected nationally. Best, who ran for 1,580 yards and 15 touchdowns last season can single handedly take over games for the Golden Bears. A rugged schedule could make things interesting with games at Minnesota, Oregon, UCLA and Arizona State.

16. Nebraska
The Cornhuskers are replacing a lot of production on offense, mainly at quarterback. But tailbacks Roy Helu Jr. and Quentin Castille and new quarterback Zac Lee's running will be enough. Defensively Nebraska is skilled, fast and talented. September 19th at Virginia Tech could be one of the best games on the entire season. Two manageable conference road games at Missouri and Kansas, However Texas Tech and Oklahoma visit Lincoln. If the Huskers start strong and start believing in themselves, they could make BCS noise.

17. Penn State
Quarterback Daryll Clark returns and is a playmaker. However Clark will only go as far as his young and inexperienced offensive line takes him. Additionally, the receiving core must also be replaced. Defensively they must develop their defensive line and get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The good news is Penn State plays Ohio State and Iowa at home.

18. Georgia
Quarterback Joe Cox will replace the NFL’s top pick Matt Stafford in Athens. Cox has game experience and he has a solid group of ball carriers lining up behind him. Caleb King, Richard Samuel and elusive Carlton Thomas give the Dawg’s talented ball carriers. Thomas is super quick and gives Cox a player outside to drop the ball off to. Georgia entertains Arizona State at home on September 26.

19. Kansas
Senior quarterback Todd Reesing returns for his final season. Reesing is one of those players that seems like he’s been the Jayhawk quarterback forever. Also returning are running back Jake Sharp and receivers Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier. Replacing their linebacker core from last year is the key. Kansas entertains Oklahoma at Lawrence but will travel to Texas Tech and Texas.

20. Florida State
Christian Ponder returns and for the first time in the past few seasons there isn’t a quarterback battle in Tallahassee. This is Ponder’s team and with an experienced offensive line in front of him the Noles are hoping their return is imminent. One big question on offense is finding a go to receiver. Defensively FSU is loaded led by an NFL type secondary. With the opener at home against instate and hated rival Miami, a win here could get the Seminoles rolling.

21. Wake Forest
Senior quarterback Riley Skinner is one of the most underrated players in the nation. All he’s done at Wake is win and nothing this year is available to prove that trend won’t continue. Skinner will have eight other offensive starters returning. The question is defense. The Deacons lose seven starters on defense including a couple early draft picks.

22. Oregon
The Chip Kelly era has officially begun for the Ducks. One of the hottest names over the past couple of years when head coaching positions would open, Kelly takes over an offense that must develop an offensive line. Skill position wise, Oregon has the athletes to compete. The defense will be lead by experienced linebackers Spencer Paysinger, Casey Matthews and Eddie Pleasant.

23. West Virginia
Life in Morgantown without Pat White started in the spring with a bang when new starting Mountaineer quarterback Jarrett Brown completed his first 16 passes in the WVU spring game. Brown is big, talented, athletic and offer’s an NFL arm. Noel Devine and his fellow super small but equally super fast running backs and slots all return. Seven defensive starters are back along with 2007 Fiesta Bowl MVP Reed Williams who missed '08 due to injury. The WVU season could come down to a trip to South Florida.

24. East Carolina
ECU returns quarterback Patrick Pinkney and a whole host of starters on offense. Kentucky transfer running back Brandon Jackson will impact. WR Patrick Bowman is talented and offers Pinkney a go to receiver. September 12th at Morgantown and WVU and November 5th at home against Virginia Tech will tell the tale.

25. NC State
Quietly NC State has one of the nation's premier quarterbacks in Russell Wilson. The two sport star is a big time athlete and after throwing for almost 2,000 yards last year and 17 touchdowns, look for a bigger season this coming fall. Defensively the Pack must get better defending the pass. The season opener September 3rd against rival South Carolina will be a war.

http://www.southernpigskin.com/index.php/site/national_top_25/

F18mustang
05-19-2009, 05:58 PM
QueTF?

Top 10? Yeah

Number 2? NO

slorch
05-19-2009, 06:01 PM
drug testing is obviously not required to vote in this poll.

Florida is the ONLY school I would vote ahead of UT, and that's because of my Madden-like belief that you stay the champ until someone takes you down.

Oklahoma State has not proven it can win on the road. I think top 15 is realistic, but not 2nd in the country until they provide something beyond potential.

Kansas? For freaking real? Did anyone see what Tech did to them in Lawrence last season?

People are jumping on the Nebraska wagon pretty big. I love Pelini being there, but they need to show me more consistency before I would put them in the top25.

Oklahoma is too low. Still don't see how anyone could vote OSU ahead of the Sooners, yet...

cajun
05-19-2009, 06:11 PM
It's a different perspective for sure...

farmerfan
05-19-2009, 06:21 PM
They love the Pokes home schedule and win over UGA to start the season will be huge as far the Mo goes to carry them on. Getting Tech, Texas and UGA at home will be huge. OSU played Texas pretty tough in Stillwater here of late and played them to the wire in Austin last year. I know I am skeptical to pick the Dawgs to beat the Pokes next year.

cajun
05-19-2009, 06:30 PM
They love the Pokes home schedule and win over UGA to start the season will be huge as far the Mo goes to carry them on. Getting Tech, Texas and UGA at home will be huge. OSU played Texas pretty tough in Stillwater here of late and played them to the wire in Austin last year. I know I am skeptical to pick the Dawgs to beat the Pokes next year.

Oklahoma State could be like Mississippi was last year...No one really taking them serious till it's too late...I still don't think many people really take Ole Miss serious, but they got some players, man....

OSU might be the real deal...

farmerfan
05-19-2009, 06:37 PM
Oklahoma State could be like Mississippi was last year...No one really taking them serious till it's too late...I still don't think many people really take Ole Miss serious, but they got some players, man....

OSU might be the real deal...

I am glad UGA avoided Ole Miss last year. We barely got out of Vaught Hemingway a few years ago with a win.
I think you're right about Ole Miss and not being taken serious. While not one of the best coaches in the land Houston Nutt not a bad coach either. You're right about the players they have.
I am looking forward to going to Stillwater simply because it means a football weekend with UGA but I dont know if I am looking forward to that game especially with it being the new stadium dedication of Boone Pickens. They have a great shot to do to us what we did to them in Athens 2 years ago.

yankee
05-19-2009, 07:22 PM
one question.
who came up with this poll, skip bayless?

tayb
05-19-2009, 07:28 PM
Losing 6 starters from a shady defense that got lit up last season? Dez Bryant coming off of some major knee surgery? Losing one of their go to guys in Pettigrew?

I get that they have all of their tough games at home but they are still going to be very very tough games.

I would switch Oklahoma and Oklahoma State...

yankee
05-19-2009, 07:30 PM
Losing 6 starters from a shady defense that got lit up last season? Dez Bryant coming off of some major knee surgery? Losing one of their go to guys in Pettigrew?

I get that they have all of their tough games at home but they are still going to be very very tough games.

I would switch Oklahoma and Oklahoma State...

if ou is ranked ahead of texas in most preseason polls, i would be shocked. i don't put any faith at all in polls, but just sayin'...

Favpack
05-19-2009, 07:32 PM
Agree totally - switch the two Okie schools. No way OU should be lower than 5 with what they have coming back.

TWHS10
05-19-2009, 09:19 PM
what about Utah? are they going to be good like they were last season?

Firebird
05-20-2009, 08:53 AM
drug testing is obviously not required to vote in this poll.

Florida is the ONLY school I would vote ahead of UT, and that's because of my Madden-like belief that you stay the champ until someone takes you down.

Oklahoma State has not proven it can win on the road. I think top 15 is realistic, but not 2nd in the country until they provide something beyond potential.

Kansas? For freaking real? Did anyone see what Tech did to them in Lawrence last season?

People are jumping on the Nebraska wagon pretty big. I love Pelini being there, but they need to show me more consistency before I would put them in the top25.

Oklahoma is too low. Still don't see how anyone could vote OSU ahead of the Sooners, yet...


Oklahoma is too low, but OSU is a top ten type team. They could make a TTU like run this year.

Kansas is going to be good. They year before last, Tech lost to Colorado and got spanked by Missouri (granted, not at home), then put together an amazing season. You can't judge the team by one game last year. They are my pick to win the North. I think 19 is realistic.

BAMF cowboy
05-20-2009, 09:18 AM
We are definitely NOT Top 2 material...right now.

We have the potential, but I need to see some results first. I have high hopes for the defense and our only tough road game is @OU. I think the 8-12 range is fair for now.

It's going to be a fun season.

Matthew 2000 Eagle
05-20-2009, 09:22 AM
Man, the 'Frogs didn't crack the top 25 AT ALL! I know they have to replace a good number of guys on defense but, that's never been a problem for Coach Patterson, or even Franochio for that matter. But, the 'Frogs will have, basically everyone back on offense. Andy Dalton will be throwing more this season to go with the rushing attack that they already have.

cajun
05-20-2009, 09:34 AM
Except for a couple of the dominate teams, it looks wide open to me...

Florida and Texas should be the best bets to reach the title game, in my opinion...Can they get there?...We will see...

Alot of teams "could" be good...

ATownTexan
05-20-2009, 09:35 AM
Oklahoma State could be like Mississippi was last year...No one really taking them serious till it's too late...I still don't think many people really take Ole Miss serious, but they got some players, man....

OSU might be the real deal...

Ole Miss may not be getting attention Nationally but folks is the SEC are definitely aware of what's going on in Oxford. They played several teams tough last year and looked solid in their Bowl win. I don't see them sneaking up on too may teams this year unless they start out slow and drop some early ones (S. Carolina/Vandy).

cajun
05-20-2009, 10:00 AM
Ole Miss may not be getting attention Nationally but folks is the SEC are definitely aware of what's going on in Oxford. They played several teams tough last year and looked solid in their Bowl win. I don't see them sneaking up on too may teams this year unless they start out slow and drop some early ones (S. Carolina/Vandy).

Ole Miss has to go to South Carolina also-not the easiest place to win a game...I keep thinking South Carolina will bust out one of these years-just ain't happening...Steve Spurrier spinnin his wheels over there...

slorch
05-20-2009, 07:46 PM
Oklahoma is too low, but OSU is a top ten type team. They could make a TTU like run this year.

Kansas is going to be good. They year before last, Tech lost to Colorado and got spanked by Missouri (granted, not at home), then put together an amazing season. You can't judge the team by one game last year. They are my pick to win the North. I think 19 is realistic.

I think Neb will win the North, but I do think overall, the north will be much more competitive.

South will be much tougher, though. I don't believe in the Pokes...yet.

aclb
05-21-2009, 07:11 AM
#2 in the state of Oklahoma.

cajun
05-21-2009, 08:08 AM
. I don't believe in the Pokes...yet.

You might before it's over with...;)

Sat. 11/14/09 at Oklahoma State

lonny23
05-21-2009, 11:49 AM
You might before it's over with...;)

Sat. 11/14/09 at Oklahoma State
We'll beat 'em. I don't believe the hype, either and they've given me no reason to. They get better recruiting classes than Tech most years and still end up with worse records and bowl games.

Firebird
05-21-2009, 11:57 AM
We'll beat 'em. I don't believe the hype, either and they've given me no reason to. They get better recruiting classes than Tech most years and still end up with worse records and bowl games.

Lots of confidence considering TTU lost in their last trip to Stillwater. That's never been an easy road game for Tech. I think the teams have split home/home wins since 2002.

BAMF cowboy
05-21-2009, 10:15 PM
We'll beat 'em. I don't believe the hype, either and they've given me no reason to. They get better recruiting classes than Tech most years and still end up with worse records and bowl games.

No way Tech beats OSU this year. Mark it.

Firebird
05-21-2009, 11:09 PM
No way Tech beats OSU this year. Mark it.

It's gonna be a tall order for anyone to beat the Pokes in Stillwater. As far as Tech goes, they are 0-fer the past three trips to Stillwater, and the Cowboys are not looking like an inferior team. I expect a good game, and if I were a Tech fan I'd be sweating a bit over that one.

JagFan
05-21-2009, 11:19 PM
It's gonna be a tall order for anyone to beat the Pokes in Stillwater. As far as Tech goes, they are 0-fer the past three trips to Stillwater, and the Cowboys are not looking like an inferior team. I expect a good game, and if I were a Tech fan I'd be sweating a bit over that one.

I have been a Tech fan to long to assume any game is a given. OSU always gives a tough game and they are just getting better. Love my team but am realistic about outcomes. Gotten my hopes up to many times only to have them shredded in a meat grinder.

Firebird
05-21-2009, 11:22 PM
I have been a Tech fan to long to assume any game is a given. OSU always gives a tough game and they are just getting better. Love my team but am realistic about outcomes. Gotten my hopes up to many times only to have them shredded in a meat grinder.

Most long-time Tech fans share your attitude...

JagFan
05-21-2009, 11:35 PM
Most long-time Tech fans share your attitude...

Sad but true. The reality is Tech will have a good team and will give Mack Brown fits some years. Even play OU close (some years) We cannot out recruit teams like Texas and OU. I used to add A&M to that. They will come back as well and then we will be the third choice in Texas again. Even Baylor is getting better.

Like I said we will be good and really good some years but not a national champion team. I just enjoy giving Mack fits and beating him every few years.

lonny23
05-22-2009, 12:14 AM
Lots of confidence considering TTU lost in their last trip to Stillwater. That's never been an easy road game for Tech. I think the teams have split home/home wins since 2002.
Yes, I'm aware that Tech has lost the last 3 games in Stillwater. My point is that the odds say Tech is going to win on the road before the Cowboys do. Tech has been snakebit the last 3 trips in.

Firebird
05-22-2009, 12:22 AM
Yes, I'm aware that Tech has lost the last 3 games in Stillwater. My point is that the odds say Tech is going to win on the road before the Cowboys do. Tech has been snakebit the last 3 trips in.

What "odds" are these......:rolleyes:

BackNBlack97
05-22-2009, 12:33 AM
I cheer for tech as long as they aren't playing the Horns, but I don't think tech will beat OSU this year... I think OSU may be 11-1 and second in the south behind the Horns this season...

slorch
05-22-2009, 06:55 AM
It's gonna be a tall order for anyone to beat the Pokes in Stillwater. As far as Tech goes, they are 0-fer the past three trips to Stillwater, and the Cowboys are not looking like an inferior team. I expect a good game, and if I were a Tech fan I'd be sweating a bit over that one.

Shut up and worry about about winning your FBS games...;):D


I'm not saying Tech is going to walk all over OSU. I'm just saying I don't comprehend how anyone would predict they'll finish ahead of OU and UT, with the eveidence in hand. The OSU- Tech series is very much like the A&M series in that it's typically a blowout in Lubbock and one heck of a game on the road. OSU has held serve, so there's no denial here. The last Tech game in Stillwater had a terrible defensive effort by the Red Raiders that got the DC fired and the game winning catch bouncing off the shoulder pads of an eventual two-time Bilitnikof winner...

tayb
05-22-2009, 07:30 AM
Yes, I'm aware that Tech has lost the last 3 games in Stillwater. My point is that the odds say Tech is going to win on the road before the Cowboys do. Tech has been snakebit the last 3 trips in.

This is an interesting statement. Both teams lose on the road and it usually comes by way of a blowout. What "odds" does Tech have on their side to break this cycle? Does losing 6 offensive starters from last season including the RB, QB, star wide receiver, and 2 offensive lineman give Tech the "odds?

slorch
05-22-2009, 07:57 AM
What "odds" are these......:rolleyes:

Oklahoma State's last win in Lubbock was 1944.

I'll take those odds...

Firebird
05-22-2009, 07:59 AM
Oklahoma State's last win in Lubbock was 1944.

I'll take those odds...

That's not any sort of odds at all,that's buying into the gambler's fallacy.

slorch
05-22-2009, 08:03 AM
That's not any sort of odds at all,that's buying into the gambler's fallacy.

We were talking about taking odds right?, thus the gambling reference...

You asked why someone would take those odds and I told you.

Even with the transition of talent at Tech, there is no reason yet to think Oklahoma State has a better chance to post a road win in the series. Are all of these hosses going to get a 5th year of eligibility next season for OSU?

BTW, i haven't bet on sports in about 9 years, so I agree with the folly. I'm just explaining why I said what I said.

Firebird
05-22-2009, 08:08 AM
We were talking about taking odds right?, thus the gambling reference...

You asked why someone would take those odds and I told you.

BTW, i haven't bet on sports in about 9 years, so I agree with the folly.

Actually, I asked "what odds" Lonny was talking about. The point being that there are no odds whatsoever. Each game is a single, discrete event and the odds of one team or the other winning in any given year have nothing whatsoever to do with what happened last year. It's not quite a pure gambler's fallacy, but close. The only "odds" that you will find for this are the ones Las Vegas sets. I'm not sure if they have any right now.

slorch
05-22-2009, 08:11 AM
Actually, I asked "what odds" Lonny was talking about. The point being that there are no odds whatsoever. Each game is a single, discrete event and the odds of one team or the other winning in any given year have nothing whatsoever to do with what happened last year. It's not quite a pure gambler's fallacy, but close. The only "odds" that you will find for this are the ones Las Vegas sets. I'm not sure if they have any right now.

now we're being literal again...:rolleyes:

you know what I am saying makes sense. But this was Lonny's post, I know you weren't prepared for that...;):D

Firebird
05-22-2009, 08:19 AM
now we're being literal again...:rolleyes:

you know what I am saying makes sense. But this was Lonny's post, I know you weren't prepared for that...;):D

Not really. I think that this is just as likely to happen:

2009: OSU
2010: TTU
2011: OSU
2012:OSU

As this:

2009: OSU
2010:TTU
2011:TTU

There's no way at all of predicting based off of what's happened since the 1940s what the game is going to look like three or four years down the road.

slorch
05-22-2009, 08:39 AM
Not really. I think that this is just as likely to happen:

.

and there's your issue...

Firebird
05-22-2009, 08:41 AM
and there's your issue...

Keep believing that games from the 1940s have any bearing on games that will be played years from now. The only thing that Tech or any other team has going for it at any given home game is the usual home field advantage, everything else is all relative to the specifics of that game itself.

I can make just as convincing an argument by saying the odds are for OSU winning on the road before Tech because OSU is due for a win. That is, not a convincing argument at all.

slorch
05-22-2009, 08:48 AM
Keep believing that games from the 1940s have any bearing on games that will be played years from now. The only thing that Tech or any other team has going for it at any given home game is the usual home field advantage, everything else is all relative to the specifics of that game itself.

I can make just as convincing an argument by saying the odds are for OSU winning on the road before Tech because OSU is due for a win. That is, not a convincing argument at all.

Let's be clear, I didn't say absolutely Tech would do it first. I told you what lead me to beleive Tech would do it first. basically the games in Lubbock have been solid Tech wins, aside from the billion point shootout 3 years ago. The games in Stillwater have been close. That leads me to believe the chances are better for Tech to get a road win first in the series.

It's all speculation. It doesn't matter until they play the game.

I guess we could justl listen to Obama and believe the past doesn't matter...

lonny23
05-22-2009, 04:03 PM
Shut up and worry about about winning your FBS games...;):D


I'm not saying Tech is going to walk all over OSU. I'm just saying I don't comprehend how anyone would predict they'll finish ahead of OU and UT, with the eveidence in hand. The OSU- Tech series is very much like the A&M series in that it's typically a blowout in Lubbock and one heck of a game on the road. OSU has held serve, so there's no denial here. The last Tech game in Stillwater had a terrible defensive effort by the Red Raiders that got the DC fired and the game winning catch bouncing off the shoulder pads of an eventual two-time Bilitnikof winner...
I was deployed for the 2005 game and don't know what you can call that game, but the last place team in the South beat the #2 team in the South. 2003 was a big shootout game like 2007.

lonny23
05-22-2009, 04:05 PM
What "odds" are these......:rolleyes:
When one team usually blows out the other team in home games and loses close games on the road, the odds say that the team that wins big will probably take one on the road before the other team does.

It's almost like A&M vs. Tech, except Tech does win the road games, too.

lonny23
05-22-2009, 04:06 PM
This is an interesting statement. Both teams lose on the road and it usually comes by way of a blowout. What "odds" does Tech have on their side to break this cycle? Does losing 6 offensive starters from last season including the RB, QB, star wide receiver, and 2 offensive lineman give Tech the "odds?
You might want to check those scores in Stillwater!:D

Firebird
05-22-2009, 04:08 PM
When one team usually blows out the other team in home games and loses close games on the road, the odds say that the team that wins big will probably take one on the road before the other team does.

It's almost like A&M vs. Tech, except Tech does win the road games, too.

Please show me these odds and how you calculated them.

lonny23
05-22-2009, 04:08 PM
We were talking about taking odds right?, thus the gambling reference...

You asked why someone would take those odds and I told you.

Even with the transition of talent at Tech, there is no reason yet to think Oklahoma State has a better chance to post a road win in the series. Are all of these hosses going to get a 5th year of eligibility next season for OSU?

BTW, i haven't bet on sports in about 9 years, so I agree with the folly. I'm just explaining why I said what I said.
I don't really care about the 1944 thing as much as this. The vast majority of the years in the Big 12 Tech has been better than OSU. Until OSU starts consistently being better than Tech, I'll usually pick Tech to be better.

lonny23
05-22-2009, 04:16 PM
Actually, I asked "what odds" Lonny was talking about. The point being that there are no odds whatsoever. Each game is a single, discrete event and the odds of one team or the other winning in any given year have nothing whatsoever to do with what happened last year. It's not quite a pure gambler's fallacy, but close. The only "odds" that you will find for this are the ones Las Vegas sets. I'm not sure if they have any right now.
This discussion is about odds that are not something you can't bet on. If it makes you feel better, we can use the word probability. It's almost like the John Hollinger power rankings for NBA teams. He gives credit for consistent large margins of victory and says it's usually a decent predictor of future success. The law of averages generally says close wins and close losses come close to balancing out. Hollinger says (For example) if you go 22-3 in games decided by 3 points or less, you got real lucky and I agree that it's some skill to win close games, but also luck to always win the close ones.

On that note, the Tech margin of victory in Lubbock is much larger than what OSU does in Stillwater, Tech does win some games on the road and OSU hasn't won in Lubbock since almost everybody on this board was born and I'll say Tech wins in Stillwater before OSU does in Lubbock.

lonny23
05-22-2009, 04:18 PM
Please show me these odds and how you calculated them.
It's above your comprehension level.

Firebird
05-22-2009, 04:28 PM
This discussion is about odds that are not something you can't bet on. If it makes you feel better, we can use the word probability. It's almost like the John Hollinger power rankings for NBA teams. He gives credit for consistent large margins of victory and says it's usually a decent predictor of future success. The law of averages generally says close wins and close losses come close to balancing out. Hollinger says (For example) if you go 22-3 in games decided by 3 points or less, you got real lucky and I agree that it's some skill to win close games, but also luck to always win the close ones.

On that note, the Tech margin of victory in Lubbock is much larger than what OSU does in Stillwater, Tech does win some games on the road and OSU hasn't won in Lubbock since almost everybody on this board was born and I'll say Tech wins in Stillwater before OSU does in Lubbock.

This post is entirely worthless and I will tell you why: the quality of the Oklahoma State or Texas Tech team in 2005 or 2006 has almost nothing to do with the quality of either one of those teams in 2009 or 2010. Aside from the fact that better teams are likely to recruit better and the few 2005 and 2006 contributors that will still be contributing in 2009 or 2010, and the fact that the coaches are the same, it has nothing to do whatsoever. Scores from past seasons are absolutely meaningless given the rate of turnover and learning curve on a college roster, as it almost never happens that two college teams will meet each other and be essentially the same team twice.

Hollinger's power rankings are used to track basketball teams within a single season, not across seasons. And basketball seasons are longer and teams play each other more often. His theory basically says that if you have two teams in a league all playing the same teams, and one is winning every night by 30 and the other by 3, the one winning by 30 is likely to be better. Yeah, that's an amazing insight...:rolleyes:

Across college football seasons this is worthless. For instance, maybe for the past three seasons in a row, Tumbleweed A&M won three national championships and beat everyone by 30+. However, the amazing, once in a lifetime class that produced those results is graduating and the coaches have only gotten one stars, most freshmen to take their place since then. Meanwhile their league opponents have all recruited well and will be starting teams of fifth year seniors. The past records have no bearing whatsoever on the liklihood of the games next season, or a season or two down the road.

The fact that you used the term "law of averages" in any sort of conjuction with probability shows that you have no idea what you are talking about at all.

Firebird
05-22-2009, 04:31 PM
Here is more proof that you have no idea what you are talking about, using John Hollinger's system. Note that he does not bother to start computing until the current season is ten games old. He never starts talking about odds or probability before a season starts, using data from the last season. And that is in the NBA where frequently core rosters can be more stable than in college football:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=playoffpredictor-081119

cajun
05-22-2009, 04:46 PM
I know LSU has had some great success at Oxford (won last 4 in roll), but I'm just as scared of that game as the Bama game in Tuscaloosa...

Both of them gonna be hard as hell to win..

lonny23
05-22-2009, 08:08 PM
Here is more proof that you have no idea what you are talking about, using John Hollinger's system. Note that he does not bother to start computing until the current season is ten games old. He never starts talking about odds or probability before a season starts, using data from the last season. And that is in the NBA where frequently core rosters can be more stable than in college football:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=playoffpredictor-081119
Nice research. BTW, I'm not completely enamrored with his system because it has flaws that are apparent to me. He starts out on the right foot, but he's a slave to his system and doesn't account for what the human eye can see and stats can't.

As far as your talk about players and recruits changing, it's very much true if you keep getting the same relative amount of talent. In that department, I submit that overall OSU is somewhat flatlining and Tech is getting better each year. Recruiting isn't an exact science and there are busts, but you do have to account for better talent affecting these type of things.

The main thing I was talking about is the fact that Tech always has better coaching than OSU and that hasn't changed the whole decade.

slorch
05-22-2009, 08:10 PM
Here is more proof that you have no idea what you are talking about, using John Hollinger's system. Note that he does not bother to start computing until the current season is ten games old. He never starts talking about odds or probability before a season starts, using data from the last season. And that is in the NBA where frequently core rosters can be more stable than in college football:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=playoffpredictor-081119

like playing with sawdust?

damn...:rolleyes:

sessamoid
05-24-2009, 05:21 PM
Aside from Bryant, who's coming back from knee surgery, does OSU have any receivers left?

BAMF cowboy
05-24-2009, 05:29 PM
Aside from Bryant, who's coming back from knee surgery, does OSU have any receivers left?

Damien Davis and Bo Bowling (the #2 and #3 receivers) were both dismissed from the team for various reasons.

We have a good group of very athletic but inexperienced receivers to use. Make of that what you will.

Hubert Anyiam - most built like Dez
DeMarcus Conner - best hands
Adrian Richards - fastest receiver
Justin Blackmon - has the best size

Anyiam and Conner look to be our #2 and #3 right now, but the others should see some reps.

bleedblue
06-03-2009, 02:49 PM
What a ajoke anow moutnain west teams

slorch
06-03-2009, 04:01 PM
Damien Davis and Bo Bowling (the #2 and #3 receivers) were both dismissed from the team for various reasons.

We have a good group of very athletic but inexperienced receivers to use. Make of that what you will.

Hubert Anyiam - most built like Dez
DeMarcus Conner - best hands
Adrian Richards - fastest receiver
Justin Blackmon - has the best size

Anyiam and Conner look to be our #2 and #3 right now, but the others should see some reps.

what ever happened to Broadway?

pied
06-03-2009, 05:09 PM
what ever happened to Broadway?

I really think that TV and movies replaced it. Along with the proliferation of touring companies around the country made it a bit less special. The lack of originality and constant retreads probably hurt quite a bit as well.

I'm no expert though.

BAMF cowboy
06-03-2009, 08:16 PM
what ever happened to Broadway?

Broadway was also dismissed from the team for violating team rules (the exact reason wasn't specified).

He had slipped my mind since he had a relatively insignificant season with only 2 catches (albeit 1 for a 95 yd TD). However, we could definitely use his experience this season.



LOL Pied

slorch
06-03-2009, 08:23 PM
Broadway was also dismissed from the team for violating team rules (the exact reason wasn't specified).

He had slipped my mind since he had a relatively insignificant season with only 2 catches (albeit 1 for a 95 yd TD). However, we could definitely use his experience this season.



LOL Pied

It was a big deal when he ditched Tech for OSU. Then he just faded into oblivion...

toonman
06-08-2009, 12:08 PM
I think they have their #2 and #11 the wrong way around.