Early look at the BCS rankings

[lonny23]

The BCS rankings won't be out for another 2 weeks, but I thought I'd give you a preview. The rankings are composed of 3 factors:

USA Today Coaches Poll
Harris Ratings
Average of 6 computer rankings with best and worst rank discarded.

Since only 4 of the 6 computer rankings are out, I won't include them right now and will only show what the current rankings are with the the 2 human factors since the 1st Harris Ratings came out this week.

The official ratings for both of the human polls are composed of each team's point value in the poll expressed as a % of the maximum points if you were a unanimous #1. Likewise, you get % points in the computer rankings based upon how close to a unanimous #1 you are in each of the 4 rankings that count in your score.

I will give the total points out of 4375 for each of the top 25 in the human polls, but will only give the % points for a few teams.

1. Oklahoma 4355 (.9954)
2. LSU 4036 (.9225)
3. Alabama 3951
4. Missouri 3922
5. Texas 3765
6. Penn State 3248
7. USC 2987
8. Texas Tech 2980
9. BYU 2958
10. Georgia 2719
11. Florida 2576
12. South Florida 2545
13. Ohio State 2336
14. Auburn 2282
15. Utah 1879
16. Wisconsin 1494
17. Kansas 1421
18. Boise State 1254
19. Vanderbilt 1055
20. Fresno State 773
21. Oregon 762
22. Oklahoma State 528
23. Virginia Tech 511
24. Connecticut 466
25. Wake Forest 371 (.0848)

[tayb]

I love this system.

This way instead of really knowing who is the better team we will just let a showing of hands determine that Oklahoma and LSU are the two best teams and let them duke it out on the field.

Flawless system I saw. Flawless. Keeps me excited.

[LeanderLions3033]

The BCS rankings won't be out for another 2 weeks, but I thought I'd give you a preview. The rankings are composed of 3 factors:

USA Today Coaches Poll
Harris Ratings
Average of 6 computer rankings with best and worst rank discarded.

Since only 4 of the 6 computer rankings are out, I won't include them right now and will only show what the current rankings are with the the 2 human factors since the 1st Harris Ratings came out this week.

The official ratings for both of the human polls are composed of each team's point value in the poll expressed as a % of the maximum points if you were a unanimous #1. Likewise, you get % points in the computer rankings based upon how close to a unanimous #1 you are in each of the 4 rankings that count in your score.

I will give the total points out of 4375 for each of the top 25 in the human polls, but will only give the % points for a few teams.

1. Oklahoma 4355 (.9954)
2. LSU 4036 (.9225)
3. Alabama 3951
4. Missouri 3922
5. Texas 3765
6. Penn State 3248
7. USC 2987
8. Texas Tech 2980
9. BYU 2958
10. Georgia 2719
11. Florida 2576
12. South Florida 2545
13. Ohio State 2336
14. Auburn 2282
15. Utah 1879
16. Wisconsin 1494
17. Kansas 1421
18. Boise State 1254
19. Vanderbilt 1055
20. Fresno State 773
21. Oregon 762
22. Oklahoma State 528
23. Virginia Tech 511
24. Connecticut 466
25. Wake Forest 371 (.0848)

If USC is ranked ahead of an undefeated Tech team then i will :Censor: a brick. That would make no sense.

[Mhs06]

If USC is ranked ahead of an undefeated Tech team then i will :Censor: a brick. That would make no sense.

Heck no, Oregon State really is a good team. They should still be top 5 easy. *kidding of course*

[DragonFan0316]

If USC is ranked ahead of an undefeated Tech team then i will :Censor: a brick. That would make no sense.

Tech may not be undefeated in 2 weeks. :D

[lonny23]

If USC is ranked ahead of an undefeated Tech team then i will :Censor: a brick. That would make no sense.
USC won't be ahead of Tech after this week in all likelihood. There are many people that are taking a wait and see approach with the Red Raiders.

I'll use the AP Poll since I know where everybody ranks the Red Raiders. Tech is ranked 7th and that's about the right spot for a BCS conference team that was ranked to end last year and was ranked to start this year and is still undefeated. We could argue about Tech being better than some other teams coming into the year, but you can't argue much because there are teams that were ranked higher than Tech to end last year and are good this year and still undefeated.

Tech is not a super strong #7 right now. There are voters in all polls who are ranking them lower than 7th and as soon as Tech proves they're a very good team, you're going to see them jump up in the points. There are 65 AP voters:

24 voters have Tech ranked between 5th and 7th. You can say they're drinking the Kool Aid!:D

25 voters have Tech ranked between 8th and 10th. You can say they have some reservations and that means they either favor some of the 1 loss teams over Tech right now or they haven't seen enough from Tech to put them over the BYU and South Florida's of the world. Tech will jump these people in the polls as soon as they show they're going to win some Big 12 road games.

16 voters have Tech ranked between 11th and 17th. They're expecting the so-called typical Tech losses. They're not forecasting anything better than 9-3 from the Red Raiders. These people are going to be forced to jump Tech up 5-10 spots in the next month if they keep winning.

That is what the AP says, but it's somewhat indicative of the Coaches Poll and Harris Ratings that both have Tech ranked at 8th.

Tech is 8th in the Harris Ratings. If they were 8th on every ballot, they'd have 2052 points instead of 1933. That means more people have them ranked below 8th than higher and the average voter has them around 9th.

Tech is 8th in the Coaches Poll. 8th on every ballot would be 1098 points, not 1047. They are a little stronger of an #8 team in this poll.

Tech is 7th in the AP. They would have 1235 points as a unanimous #7, but have 1105. They're ranked more like a #9 right now.

The point in all of this is Tech will make progress just by winning and doesn't even have to have teams above them lose to gain ground in the rankings. I'm glad for the other teams to lose, but Tech will make ground just by proving the advance hype.

[lonny23]

Tech may not be undefeated in 2 weeks. :D
I'm liable to do like Leander if K-State beats them and I'm likely to throw a brick if Nebraska beats them!:D

[DragonFan0316]

I'm liable to do like Leander if K-State beats them and I'm likely to throw a brick if Nebraska beats them!:D

Just fun'n with him. Tech fans are so sure every year. I would like them better if not for the head boy over there. I just don't trust Leach's looks. Plus after recruiting McElroy he signed Taylor Potts too. Poor Mac had to go to Bama.

[jtk1519]

The REAL early BCS rankings are out. In a shocking turn of events, the REAL rankings don't think as highly of Tech as loony...

http://picsorban.com/upload/bcssjghsjklds.jpg

http://grjash.netfirms.com/bcs/bcs_rankings.html

[pied]

I love this system.

This way instead of really knowing who is the better team we will just let a showing of hands determine that Oklahoma and LSU are the two best teams and let them duke it out on the field.

Flawless system I saw. Flawless. Keeps me excited.


Well actually we will have LSU and ou play 13 games. Lose one and they are in trouble of missing the game.

Flawless = New England Patriots regular season last year including beating the Giants on the road in the Meadowlands, whicha as it turns out meant nothing. They lost a neutral site game and the Giants who lost six games are clearly the better team.

NFL gets me going I tell you. Games are decided on the field. So many impactful games this last weekend right? I just have listened to the Cowboys tell me for two days that we can't get excited over one loss. Those things are going to happen. Awesome.

[lonny23]

The REAL early BCS rankings are out. In a shocking turn of events, the REAL rankings don't think as highly of Tech as loony...

http://picsorban.com/upload/bcssjghsjklds.jpg

http://grjash.netfirms.com/bcs/bcs_rankings.html
There aren't any real early rankings. There are 6 computer polls and 2 rankings get dropped. Only 4 rankings have been posted so far. I could tell you what the current 4 rankings say, but there are ZERO indications that would lead me to know what the other 2 rankings will say and likewise nobody knows what rankings to drop.

If all 6 computer models were out, I'd tell you guys 100% what the rankings are now. All I know is 67% of the equation. I held off on saying the computer rankings because you still have people like Northwestern 2nd in the Massey Rankings. There is still a little shuffling that needs to go on in the computer rankings before they're normalized. Sagarin's Rankings have been mostly based upon last year until now and not as much what is happening this year. Colley has Vandy 2nd. I'm not exactly sold that UConn should be 14th in Billingsley, but that poll looks a little more normal so far than some of the others.

What I said had nothing to do with what I thought. I said what the 2 human elements that account for 2/3 of the formula have to say right now. I considered it a futile effort to calculate any computer rankings when none of us know if those same rankings will be used. I can guarantee you the Anderson & Hester and/or Peter Wolfe rankings will be used for some teams and their numbers aren't posted. I'm wasting my time saying what the other 4 rankings say because some of those scores will be dropped. Thanks for once again proving your lack of editorial integrity. Disagree with my opinion, but don't try to spin a story that has nothing to do with what I said.

Tech is ranked 13, 18, 20, and 36 in the 4 computer polls that are out. You'd keep the 18 and 20 if you were dropping scores right now. The only thing I'll say about their current standing is they've been hurt in the computer polls to this point by playing 2 FCS teams. One poll only counts D1-A games and strength of schedule plays into the rankings. As long as Tech wins the next few weeks, their computer rankings will go up. As you can see from the previous paragraphs, we still have some upstart teams high in the computer polls and that will balance out more as the season goes along.

http://www.bcsfootball.org/bcsfb/rankings

[mad_fan]

The REAL early BCS rankings are out. In a shocking turn of events, the REAL rankings don't think as highly of Tech as loony...

http://picsorban.com/upload/bcssjghsjklds.jpg

http://grjash.netfirms.com/bcs/bcs_rankings.html

That ain't real...no Notre Dame...

[theTrutHurts]

In conclusion, none of this matters....

Also, of course in order to move up Tech has to keep winning...Madden Moment Loony

I do think it's ridiculous that computers! computers! are deciding things

It is time to have a 16 team playoff and even then there would be controversy

Set up an "NIT" tournament for the rest so that the Bowls and schools can get their revenue because we all know that it's all about the money.

[LeanderLions3033]

Tech may not be undefeated in 2 weeks. :D

Don't worry. Keep in mind, this isnt UT we're talking about lol. Remember this is the same team that lost to Louisville and let UL-lafayette put up a whopping 35 points against them. I understand that this is the first quality opponent that Tech will face, but on paper this "shouldnt" be a game.

[jtk1519]

I understand that this is the first quality opponent that Tech will face, but on paper this "shouldnt" be a game.

Neither should Directional 1AA Washington. Funny how the paper lies.

[LeanderLions3033]

Neither should Directional 1AA Washington. Funny how the paper lies.

Again JTK, i can't emphasize enough the fact that this game was in no way as close as it may have seen on the score board. Tech was up early in the game, and played that way throughout the 2nd and 3rd quarter when eastern washington got back in the game.

And one thing that coach Ruffin said that he would emphasize with this years defense is a variety of blitz packages. During this game TECH DIDNT BLITZ A SINGLE DOWN. Not on 3rd and obvious passing downs, not on 1st down, not at all. It was the most vanilla i've ever seen a defense play. It was pretty much base cover 2 and base cover 3 all game.

[jrock210]

Wow Tech never gets respect but this is the only poll I've seen Texas ranked higher than Mizzou unless it's an announcers poll but those are just :Censor: to look at lol

[theTrutHurts]

The game is in Manhattan and is the first conference game. I would expect for it to be a good game barring Freeman turnovers. Both teams will be fired up and ready to play. I expect a pretty good and close game.

[lonny23]

For those that want to see what the BCS rankings would be using the 4 computer rankings published right now and not discarding any rankings, here you go. Keep in mind a couple of the 4 have Northwestern and Vandy sitting in the 2 holes:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=3617926

He acknowledges that Tech loses points for playing Eastern Washington and UMass. By the same token, they'll move past BYU and Utah and others in the next few weeks with wins even without any more upsets.

[jtk1519]

Again JTK, i can't emphasize enough the fact that this game was in no way as close as it may have seen on the score board.

Try and sell that BS to somebody who didn't watch the game, because jtk isn't buying what you're shoveling. It was an 11 point game after 3 quarters. I never said the outcome was in doubt or Tech was on their heels... I said it was an 11 point game after 3 quarters.

[yankee]

i f'n hate polls.

[lonny23]

i f'n hate polls.
I'm not a huge fan of them myself when it comes to handpicking teams for important bowls.

[tayb]

Well actually we will have LSU and ou play 13 games. Lose one and they are in trouble of missing the game.

Flawless = New England Patriots regular season last year including beating the Giants on the road in the Meadowlands, whicha as it turns out meant nothing. They lost a neutral site game and the Giants who lost six games are clearly the better team.

NFL gets me going I tell you. Games are decided on the field. So many impactful games this last weekend right? I just have listened to the Cowboys tell me for two days that we can't get excited over one loss. Those things are going to happen. Awesome.

Unlike yourself I don't need some third party artificial system to make me interested in college or pro football. You must have missed the Cowboys Redskins game over the weekend. Probably didn't watch the exciting game because the loser wasn't immediately eliminated from the Superbowl. Or did you? Wonder what made you watch...

[lonny23]

Here are the numbers after this week in bold. There are other things, but it's funny how you loe points in close wins, on byes, and in Texas' case, even if you play pretty good.

1. Oklahoma 4355 4361
2. LSU 4036 4002
3. Alabama 3951 3933
4. Missouri 3922 3957
5. Texas 3765 3752
6. Penn State 3248 3413
7. USC 2987 3080
8. Texas Tech 2980 3137
9. BYU 2958 3050
10. Georgia 2719 2740
11. Florida 2576 2651
12. South Florida 2545 860
13. Ohio State 2336 2470
14. Auburn 2282 577
15. Utah 1879 2209
16. Wisconsin 1494 338
17. Kansas 1421 1824
18. Boise State 1254 1801
19. Vanderbilt 1055 2031
20. Fresno State 773 55
21. Oregon 762 66
22. Oklahoma State 528 1487
23. Virginia Tech 511 1195
24. Connecticut 466 37
25. Wake Forest 371 598

[jrock210]

Here are the numbers after this week in bold. There are other things, but it's funny how you loe points in close wins, on byes, and in Texas' case, even if you play pretty good.

1. Oklahoma 4355 4361
2. LSU 4036 4002
3. Alabama 3951 3933
4. Missouri 3922 3957
5. Texas 3765 3752
6. Penn State 3248 3413
7. USC 2987 3080
8. Texas Tech 2980 3137
9. BYU 2958 3050
10. Georgia 2719 2740
11. Florida 2576 2651
12. South Florida 2545 860
13. Ohio State 2336 2470
14. Auburn 2282 577
15. Utah 1879 2209
16. Wisconsin 1494 338
17. Kansas 1421 1824
18. Boise State 1254 1801
19. Vanderbilt 1055 2031
20. Fresno State 773 55
21. Oregon 762 66
22. Oklahoma State 528 1487
23. Virginia Tech 511 1195
24. Connecticut 466 37
25. Wake Forest 371 598

Well in 2 weeks things should clear up for 3 of the Top 5 teams....maybe :D lol

[tayb]

ESPN did a "mock BCS" after this past weekend...

http://img529.imageshack.us/img529/9605/bcsbj1.jpg

[lonny23]

ESPN did a "mock BCS" after this past weekend...

http://img529.imageshack.us/img529/9605/bcsbj1.jpg
The computer polls say they'll straighten out over time, but it's not time yet. 2-3 Oregon State is pretty high in some computer rankings. A good example of the craziness is Texas Tech dropped 8 spots in one computer ranking after a 30 point win on the road.