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tayb
08-22-2008, 07:45 PM
Seriously. What the heck is going on. This thing keeps zigzagging across Florida and now it is back in the water... on the other side... again.

jtk1519
08-22-2008, 07:48 PM
God hates Florida.

mad_fan
08-22-2008, 07:48 PM
Bush doesn't do that stuff anymore...plausible deniability...
So it's probably Cheney...
:rolleyes:

hunterbunter
08-22-2008, 08:02 PM
its the constant suckage coming from ou

mad_fan
08-22-2008, 08:34 PM
its the constant suckage coming from ou

combined with the blow from tu...

TheBigPeach
08-22-2008, 08:49 PM
I hope it comes to GA, we need the rain.

slorch
08-22-2008, 08:54 PM
combined with the blow from tu...

the blow comes from NM...

you know that.:rolleyes:

jc84chill
08-22-2008, 09:08 PM
This is one of the crazier storms I've seen.

We along the Gulf need to start keeping an eye on 94L developing and currently located near 10.9N 54.5W. It's just a tiny ole 25mph tropical disturbance right now and still quite a few days until any significant development could occur, but it's far enough south to eventually pop it out in the GOM.

EagleDude73
08-22-2008, 09:10 PM
This is one of the crazier storms I've seen.

We along the Gulf need to start keeping an eye on 94L developing and currently located near 10.9N 54.5W. It's just a tiny ole 25mph tropical disturbance right now and still quite a few days until any significant development could occur, but it's far enough south to eventually pop it out in the GOM.

jtk and hook em think your crazy

jtk1519
08-22-2008, 09:13 PM
jtk and hook em think your crazy

EagleDoop thinks Houston has better hurricanes than Dallas.

tayb
08-22-2008, 09:14 PM
jtk and hook em think your crazy

Let me guess... "Well, Houston gets more Hurricanes than Florida."

jtk1519
08-22-2008, 09:16 PM
Let me guess... "Well, Houston gets more Hurricanes than Florida."

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

mad_fan
08-22-2008, 09:32 PM
the blow comes from NM...

you know that.:rolleyes:

Last time I was that way...the wind was to my back side...
:rolleyes:

the_phoenix612
08-22-2008, 10:49 PM
God hates Florida.

Florida=old people

God hates old people?

explains a lot. :D

GoOwls
08-23-2008, 07:59 PM
Newsflash:
7:56PM

The Associated Press has announced that The National Weather Service will rename Hurricane Fay. It has zig-zagged and waffled it's way across Florida so much that it's name will be changed to Obama......

:D :D

CoveMom
08-23-2008, 10:54 PM
We along the Gulf need to start keeping an eye on 94L developing and currently located near 10.9N 54.5W. It's just a tiny ole 25mph tropical disturbance right now and still quite a few days until any significant development could occur, but it's far enough south to eventually pop it out in the GOM.

Could you please re-state that in English?

:confused:

jc84chill
08-23-2008, 11:12 PM
Could you please re-state that in English?

:confused:

Sorry, I've been visiting the weather blogs too much and get used to their "lingo". :)

There is a weather system (called "Invest 94" or "94L" until it becomes a tropical depression, and then when it becomes a tropical storm it gets a name) with a large area of thunderstorms just northeast of Venezuela. It has a good chance of developing into a significant tropical system over the course of the next week given the surrounding conditions. If that were to occur, it also has a chance of making its way to the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) according to where it is now.

We all know that once a large storm makes its way there, all of us here in Texas have to be alert.

Thus is life along the coast during hurricane season, but I think this will be the next system that has a chance of directly affecting us here in Texas.

I know most of us don't care until something is a couple days from landfall, but I like to follow them from the beginning.

jc84chill
08-25-2008, 01:21 PM
94L turned into Tropical Depression #7 and after around 24 hours is now Tropical Storm "Gustav"...I would imagine that it wont take long for this one to become Hurricane Gustav. The lastest hurricane hunter (the guys who fly into the storm) information has it at 60 mph max winds already. It's headed in the NW direction right now.

Obviously it's still too early to know where it's going to go beyond that. The model runs are pretty widespread at this point. Let's just hope that it doesn't shoot the gap between the Yucatan and Cuba to make its way into the Gulf of Mexico. If that happens, someone along the gulf coast won't like what's headed to their doorstep.

jc84chill
08-25-2008, 01:35 PM
http://www.5atexasfootball.com/Justin/gustav.jpg

Miss Kitty
08-25-2008, 01:39 PM
What is with the French names? :confused:

grayowl60
08-25-2008, 04:03 PM
What is with the French names? :confused:
Gustav is very German. My Daschunds offiicial name is Gustav (Von something) to me he is just ol Gus
That Gustav storm, from where it started and the time of year, could be scary. This could be the storm that screws up the opining day of dove season.

jc84chill
08-25-2008, 11:08 PM
Expect it to be a Hurricane by tomorrow afternoon. I feel for the people in Haiti right now. It's gonna be messy when that thing rolls into town. The mudslides are going to be claiming some lives. It's already up to 70mph surface winds and is strengthening rapidly right now.

It looks more and more like this one will be finding its way to the GOM.

jc84chill
08-26-2008, 01:06 AM
I'm going to go ahead and change the subect of this thread to "Gustav"...hope you don't mind HookEm.

I'm waiting on the 1am updates to come in from the Hurricane Hunters who are currently flying through the thing as we speak.

It will be very interesting to see where the surface level winds are. A tropical system usually undergoes the most convection during the early morning.

Water holds heat more efficiently than land, so at night water stays warm while the air above it cools. The greater the difference between water and air, the faster that warm air rises up into the storm system. This time period where this process is at its greatest is called "diurnal max" which occurs just before sunrise.

hunterbunter
08-26-2008, 01:18 AM
if this thing doesnt hit the yucatan peninsula, im praying it stays away from Texas. it could be a strong one.


http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa33/rolib_1999/025812W_sm.gif

jc84chill
08-26-2008, 01:20 AM
The most recent reads on the situation has it skirting just south of Cuba. While that's good for the mountainous regions of Cuba, that's not good news for people along the GOM. The more time over water = the stronger Gustav will become.

Like I said before, don't freak out...but definitely keep an eye on this thing. The model predictions have this thing growing into a monster by the time it hits the GOM.

Let's hope that's not the case...some how.

jc84chill
08-26-2008, 01:24 AM
if this thing doesnt hit the yucatan peninsula, im praying it stays away from Texas. it could be a strong one.


http://i197.photobucket.com/albums/aa33/rolib_1999/025812W_sm.gif

That tip of Haiti is about to get blasted. Pray for those folks too.

hunterbunter
08-26-2008, 01:24 AM
yea, usually when it goes over the yucatan, they tend to break up and reform so theyre not as strong right? and we're just barely gettin over Dolly, i cant imagine another one so soon

jc84chill
08-26-2008, 01:29 AM
000
WTNT62 KNHC 260620
TCUAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
220 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR. THIS CHANGE WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 5 AM EDT ADVISORY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

It looks like we have a hurricane already folks...80mph winds...pressure = 986mb

jc84chill
08-26-2008, 04:08 AM
Here's the 4AM update from the National Hurricane Center..


000
WTNT32 KNHC 260848
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

...GUSTAV STRENGTHENING SOUTH OF HAITI...SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL LATER
TODAY...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. ALSO THE
GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST
NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...
160 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 300 MILES
...480 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK THIS HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI LATER TODAY AND NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF CUBA ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN HAITI LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS REPORTED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE INTENSE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...17.2 N...71.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

jc84chill
08-26-2008, 04:12 AM
That's a Category 3 hurricane prediction (111mph-130mph) 5 days from now with a lot of warm water to still cross over...Right now, it's predicted to do exactly what I hoped it wouldn't do...shoot the gap between the Yucatan and Cuba. They also have this thing getting up to a Cat 2 before it makes landfall on Haiti, weakening a little bit back to a Cat 1, and then back to a Cat 2 pretty quickly.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_5day.gif

Favpack
08-26-2008, 07:50 AM
Seems the computer models are all over the place on Gustav.

slorch
08-26-2008, 08:04 AM
Seems the computer models are all over the place on Gustav.

we should probably do the prudent thing and buy 50 gallons of gas and put it in the garage, along with some ramen noodles and 10 cases of bottled water...

avoid gridlock, start the exodus now!!!

Redhoss
08-26-2008, 03:08 PM
Newsflash:
7:56PM

The Associated Press has announced that The National Weather Service will rename Hurricane Fay. It has zig-zagged and waffled it's way across Florida so much that it's name will be changed to Obama......

:D :D

:notworthy

Redhoss
08-26-2008, 03:11 PM
This thing looks nasty. I hope it dies out over land as we don't need the destruction or the football season interruptions. :D

drgnbkr
08-26-2008, 03:12 PM
I hope it comes to GA, we need the rain.

Is lake lanier still real low?

Favpack
08-26-2008, 03:17 PM
This thing looks nasty. I hope it dies out over land as we don't need the destruction or the football season interruptions. :D

Who can forget Wed. night and Monday night football - too bizarre for me.

trojanbacker
08-26-2008, 03:18 PM
I blame it on Global Wetting.

tayb
08-26-2008, 03:32 PM
Got a bad feeling about this one. It is going strong right now and if it gets into that open water with its current speed could realistically hit category 4 and slam into Texas or Louisiana. Should have a lot more accurate picture of where this thing is headed once it passes over these islands in the next couple of days.

hunterbunter
08-26-2008, 04:31 PM
just the name gustav makes this storm sound like a jerk

country club
08-26-2008, 06:07 PM
Come on you guys in Houston and blow real hard to the east. My home is on the beachfront in JB. We already had one scare this season. Blow Harder. Here are a couple of good sights to follow storms with.

http://www.jbwo.org/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

tayb
08-26-2008, 10:01 PM
If this projected path is correct this could be disaster for Louisiana and possibly the New Orleans area.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W5+gif/025013W_sm.gif

cyfallsbooster2
08-26-2008, 10:25 PM
Come on you guys in Houston and blow real hard to the east. My home is on the beachfront in JB. We already had one scare this season. Blow Harder. Here are a couple of good sights to follow storms with.

http://www.jbwo.org/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

Thought you guys thought we blew all the time.:cool:

cougmantx
08-26-2008, 11:55 PM
Man, I hope that thing doesn't blow into New Orleans! I don't think that city can take another one and if gets stronger, N.O. will be on the dirty side. Besides, I don't want to spend another six months there.

yankee
08-26-2008, 11:57 PM
Man, I hope that thing doesn't blow into New Orleans! I don't think that city can take another one and if gets stronger, N.O. will be on the dirty side. Besides, I don't want to spend another six months there.

maybe this thing will slow do to like 1 foot per minute or something before it hits new orleans and obama will president by then...:rolleyes:

tayb
08-26-2008, 11:58 PM
Man, I hope that thing doesn't blow into New Orleans! I don't think that city can take another one and if gets stronger, N.O. will be on the dirty side. Besides, I don't want to spend another six months there.

I wonder if the citizens will blatantly ignore another evacuation notice if it does indeed head that direction.

yankee
08-26-2008, 11:59 PM
I wonder if the citizens will blatantly ignore another evacuation notice if it does indeed head that direction.

lawlz

hunterbunter
08-27-2008, 12:24 AM
I wonder if the citizens will blatantly ignore another evacuation notice if it does indeed head that direction.

i wonder if anybody has made improvements to the levees like they said they were going to

jc84chill
08-27-2008, 01:59 AM
As I'm sure you've heard...Hurricane Gustav has been weakened by the mountainous terrain in Haiti and is now a "tropical storm". I would expect that to last maybe a day as it reorganizes and builds back up. The center of circulation has recently emerged out over water again. If there are no more mountainous land hits, I would expect this thing to blow back up.

The latest models have shifted back east a little bit more towards New Orleans, but this kind of bobbling back and forth will happen for the next several days. Any track beyond 3 days out can easily change quite a bit. It's still being widely predicted to be an extremely powerful one at landfall, wherever that ends up being.

Favpack
08-27-2008, 07:37 AM
I say we ask China for some of those surface to air weather changers.

twcpfan1
08-27-2008, 07:47 AM
I say we ask China for some of those surface to air weather changers.


Yeah, I read about that. Couldn't believe it. We need one of those to guarantee no rainouts in our district.

tayb
08-27-2008, 09:09 AM
i wonder if anybody has made improvements to the levees like they said they were going to

I am sure they have been working to improve the levees but it is hard to hold off the millions of pounds of pressure from the ocean. If it looks like the storm is headed that way so much that an evacuation notice is given the citizens need to actually LEAVE.

tayb
08-27-2008, 12:17 PM
http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/tropical/map_tropprjpath07_ltst_5nhato_enus_600x405.jpg

twcpfan1
08-27-2008, 12:20 PM
So is this likely to impact week 1?

cougmantx
08-27-2008, 02:22 PM
I am sure they have been working to improve the levees but it is hard to hold off the millions of pounds of pressure from the ocean. If it looks like the storm is headed that way so much that an evacuation notice is given the citizens need to actually LEAVE.


Katrina was actually a grazing blow that hit more in Mississippi. If this one is a cat 4 or 5 and hits the N.O. area directly, it could make Katrina look small. There were parts of the city that were saved last time. If this is a direct hit the whole of burbon street and south could be devestated.

It could really be a mess...

hunterbunter
08-27-2008, 02:52 PM
I say we ask China for some of those surface to air weather changers.

yea, and then blow Gustav their way

twcpfan1
08-27-2008, 02:57 PM
Katrina was actually a grazing blow that hit more in Mississippi. If this one is a cat 4 or 5 and hits the N.O. area directly, it could make Katrina look small. There were parts of the city that were saved last time. If this is a direct hit the whole of burbon street and south could be devestated.

It could really be a mess...

New Orleans are contemplating evacuating as early as Friday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080827/sc_nm/storm_gustav_neworleans_dc

Favpack
08-27-2008, 03:10 PM
New Orleans are contemplating evacuating as early as Friday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080827/sc_nm/storm_gustav_neworleans_dc

Not trying to be cute - but, by what method? Oops, never mind - I see it now. Good for them - buses are good.

Jindal said if the threat continues, his state could make 700 buses available for assisted evacuations, which could begin on Friday for people who need help due to medical or other conditions.

twcpfan1
08-27-2008, 03:15 PM
Pretty eerie feeling about this.

This time, 3 years ago, TWHS played Katy at Reliant. A week later the Dome was a shelter for Katrina refugees.

Friday night, another Woodlands school plays at Reliant. With Gustav about to bear down on New Orleans.

jrock210
08-27-2008, 05:01 PM
Pretty eerie feeling about this.

This time, 3 years ago, TWHS played Katy at Reliant. A week later the Dome was a shelter for Katrina refugees.

Friday night, another Woodlands school plays at Reliant. With Gustav about to bear down on New Orleans.
According to the news it COULD hit CC which I hope it does cuz I'm going to be there Saturday to Monday night!
I can't wait! I'm going to hopefully see some Saturday night HS football!

Favpack
08-27-2008, 06:49 PM
Our weatherman stated Gustav is wanting to track back to the west this afternoon. Wunderground does not reflect this. It's only moving at 3 mph right now.

F18mustang
08-27-2008, 08:07 PM
Please please please dont let Gustav hit N.O. :(

tayb
08-27-2008, 08:20 PM
Our weatherman stated Gustav is wanting to track back to the west this afternoon. Wunderground does not reflect this. It's only moving at 3 mph right now.

Every place is different... the National Hurricane Service still has it heading straight towards New Orleans. I tend to trust them the most but I hope they are wrong this time.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W5_sm2+gif/203214W_sm.gif

mad_fan
08-27-2008, 08:25 PM
NO is still in rubble...wouldn't it be better if it DID hit there than somewhere like Houston???

tayb
08-27-2008, 08:28 PM
NO is still in rubble...wouldn't it be better if it DID hit there than somewhere like Houston???

Not really. Houston isn't below sea level on three sides with a lake on another. It could cause some damage to Houston depending on how much strength it gained over the gulf but it wouldn't obliterate the city like it could New Orleans.

mad_fan
08-27-2008, 08:46 PM
Not really. Houston isn't below sea level on three sides with a lake on another. It could cause some damage to Houston depending on how much strength it gained over the gulf but it wouldn't obliterate the city like it could New Orleans.

Let me restate the case...
NO is a **** hole...what DAMAGE could be done???

cyfallsbooster2
08-27-2008, 08:48 PM
NO is still in rubble...wouldn't it be better if it DID hit there than somewhere like Houston???

I was through there last spring. Blue tarp roofs and camper trailers everywhere. This would probably kill the area out.

cyfallsbooster2
08-27-2008, 08:49 PM
Let me restate the case...
NO is a **** hole...what DAMAGE could be done???

It is a different world over there.

mad_fan
08-27-2008, 08:51 PM
I was through there last spring. Blue tarp roofs and camper trailers everywhere. This would probably kill the area out.


Sometimes...when the bowl is full...you have to flush twice...;)

tayb
08-27-2008, 08:58 PM
Let me restate the case...
NO is a **** hole...what DAMAGE could be done???

I have never visited New Orleans personally but I was under the assumption that the main tourist attraction areas like Bourbon street and downtown were re-built and doing fine. The entire city isn't a :Censor:hole as far as I know but a direct hurricane could certainly make it that way.

mad_fan
08-27-2008, 09:02 PM
I have never visited New Orleans personally but I was under the assumption that the main tourist attraction areas like Bourbon street and downtown were re-built and doing fine. The entire city isn't a :Censor:hole as far as I know but a direct hurricane could certainly make it that way.

Below sea level = **** hole...
If it got wiped off the map we could quit having this discussion...:)

drgnbkr
08-27-2008, 09:08 PM
Below sea level = **** hole...
If it got wiped off the map we could quit having this discussion...:)

The projections have New Orleans about 50 miles offshore and 25 feet underwater in 100 years....Maybe Gustav will hasten the process...I hate to say it, but the charm of NO dissappeared years ago...I've smelled better skid-0-cans on a hot August day than Bourbon Street on it's best day....:eek:

cyfallsbooster2
08-27-2008, 09:18 PM
Sometimes...when the bowl is full...you have to flush twice...;)

Now that's funny. I don't care who you are!:D

cyfallsbooster2
08-27-2008, 09:22 PM
I have never visited New Orleans personally but I was under the assumption that the main tourist attraction areas like Bourbon street and downtown were re-built and doing fine. The entire city isn't a :Censor:hole as far as I know but a direct hurricane could certainly make it that way.

Bourban Street is the only decent turd floating over there. And like I said...it is a turd. The locals have taken it over and that is a bad thing.:Censor:

TXFOOSBALL
08-27-2008, 09:22 PM
Let me restate the case...
NO is a **** hole...what DAMAGE could be done???

HAHA...LMAO! That's exactly what I am thinking...better NO than Houston.

twcpfan1
08-27-2008, 09:30 PM
Keep in mind the looters and criminals are no longer in NO. They're all in Houston now.

In any case, it's probably not in terribly good taste to start joking about a possible event that might cause loss of innocent lives. Particularly the ones that are physically unable to evacuate through no fault of theirs. Could have easily happened in Houston too had the projections about Rita materialized. A lot of Houstonians were stuck here and unable to go anywhere.

You guys better hope God has a sense of humor.

mad_fan
08-27-2008, 09:33 PM
Keep in mind the looters and criminals are no longer in NO. They're all in Houston now.

In any case, it's probably not in terribly good taste to start joking about a possible event that might cause loss of innocent lives. Particularly the ones that are physically unable to evacuate through no fault of theirs. Could have easily happened in Houston too had the projections about Rita materialized. A lot of Houstonians were stuck here and unable to go anywhere.

You guys better hope God has a sense of humor.

So you think they'll sit there on their ***** AGAIN???
:rolleyes:

mad_fan
08-27-2008, 09:36 PM
Keep in mind the looters and criminals are no longer in NO. They're all in Houston now.

In any case, it's probably not in terribly good taste to start joking about a possible event that might cause loss of innocent lives. Particularly the ones that are physically unable to evacuate through no fault of theirs. Could have easily happened in Houston too had the projections about Rita materialized. A lot of Houstonians were stuck here and unable to go anywhere.

You guys better hope God has a sense of humor.

I've lived my life that way...this thread should have no impact on judgement day...:eek:

twcpfan1
08-27-2008, 09:38 PM
So you think they'll sit there on their ***** AGAIN???
:rolleyes:

During Rita, a lot of people just did not have reliable enough vehicles to be able to get out and deal with that traffic jam. I imagine several in NO are probably in the same situation. Then there's the elderly and infirmed who would not be fit enough to survive the exodus.

jrock210
08-27-2008, 09:38 PM
Sometimes...when the bowl is full...you have to flush twice...;)

LOL! I laughed at that I feel guilty but that was straight up funny!

tayb
08-27-2008, 09:46 PM
During Rita, a lot of people just did not have reliable enough vehicles to be able to get out and deal with that traffic jam. I imagine several in NO are probably in the same situation. Then there's the elderly and infirmed who would not be fit enough to survive the exodus.

The main difference though is that I think Houston is above sea level so any flood would be a flash flood not a week of 15 foot standing water.

mad_fan
08-27-2008, 09:51 PM
During Rita, a lot of people just did not have reliable enough vehicles to be able to get out and deal with that traffic jam. I imagine several in NO are probably in the same situation. Then there's the elderly and infirmed who would not be fit enough to survive the exodus.

Let's hope we didnt move them BACK in...
As for the rest...it's not a torando...two days notice and a US Government issued compass ought to suffice...

twcpfan1
08-27-2008, 09:52 PM
The main difference though is that I think Houston is above sea level so any flood would be a flash flood not a week of 15 foot standing water.

What prompted the evacuation of Houston was that Rita was going to make landfall at Matagorda with a Cat 5 rating. Even considering that Houston is not below sea level, it was going to be flattened. Even The Woodlands evacuated thinking that a Cat 3 by the time it got up there, was going to uproot all those trees.

cyfallsbooster2
08-27-2008, 09:52 PM
Keep in mind the looters and criminals are no longer in NO. They're all in Houston now.

In any case, it's probably not in terribly good taste to start joking about a possible event that might cause loss of innocent lives. Particularly the ones that are physically unable to evacuate through no fault of theirs. Could have easily happened in Houston too had the projections about Rita materialized. A lot of Houstonians were stuck here and unable to go anywhere.

You guys better hope God has a sense of humor.

We are 75+ miles inland! It won't hurt us!:eek:

mad_fan
08-27-2008, 09:53 PM
The main difference though is that I think Houston is above sea level so any flood would be a flash flood not a week of 15 foot standing water.

Exactly...Houston is a bidet...not a bowl...:D

twcpfan1
08-27-2008, 09:56 PM
We are 75+ miles inland! It won't hurt us!:eek:


I hope you're right. And I hope NO is also spared. Because I'm pretty sure you'd be one of the first ones complaining if they end up sending the next wave of their evacuees here.

yankee
08-27-2008, 09:57 PM
We are 75+ miles inland! It won't hurt us!:eek:

hope you don't believe that...if it hits the houston area as a cat 4 or 5, there's a very good chance itll still be a hurricane by the time it reaches the woodlands area.

slorch
08-27-2008, 09:57 PM
Right now Gustav looks like Dennis Franccione got a hold of it...:rolleyes:

tons of potential, but now a p:Censor:y!

cyfallsbooster2
08-27-2008, 09:57 PM
During Rita, a lot of people just did not have reliable enough vehicles to be able to get out and deal with that traffic jam. I imagine several in NO are probably in the same situation. Then there's the elderly and infirmed who would not be fit enough to survive the exodus.


Funny thing is, I was in NO on bidness that week. Left NO on Friday, Kat hit on Sunday. I did not even know it was going to hit there. There was absolutely NO concern apparently. Wouldn't you think I would have heard SOME conversation about it?

cyfallsbooster2
08-27-2008, 10:01 PM
hope you don't believe that...if it hits the houston area as a cat 4 or 5, there's a very good chance itll still be a hurricane by the time it reaches the woodlands area.

Yes. I have been through a few of those, having lived here about 32 years. I have experience with it. It will blow, some things will move around......it will be ok. I have my shotgun (9 shells) and hand gun (13 shells) so I think I am ok.

cajun
08-27-2008, 10:02 PM
Right now Gustav looks like Dennis Franccione got a hold of it...:rolleyes:

tons of potential, but now a p:Censor:y!

cajun > Gustav

slorch
08-27-2008, 10:03 PM
shootin the wind...:eek:

cyfallsbooster2
08-27-2008, 10:04 PM
Right now Gustav looks like Dennis Franccione got a hold of it...:rolleyes:

tons of potential, but now a p:Censor:y!

Oh, now that just ain't right.


GIG 'EM!!!!!:p

twcpfan1
08-27-2008, 10:09 PM
hope you don't believe that...if it hits the houston area as a cat 4 or 5, there's a very good chance itll still be a hurricane by the time it reaches the woodlands area.

cfb2 doesnt live in the woodlands. we dont allow his kind up here :D

the_phoenix612
08-27-2008, 10:09 PM
Keep in mind the looters and criminals are no longer in NO. They're all in Houston now.

In any case, it's probably not in terribly good taste to start joking about a possible event that might cause loss of innocent lives. Particularly the ones that are physically unable to evacuate through no fault of theirs. Could have easily happened in Houston too had the projections about Rita materialized. A lot of Houstonians were stuck here and unable to go anywhere.

You guys better hope God has a sense of humor.

http://bighugelabs.com/flickr/output/motivator3308565.jpg

cyfallsbooster2
08-27-2008, 10:11 PM
cfb2 doesnt live in the woodlands. we dont allow his kind up here :D

Is that why I can't get approved fro the loan?!!!!:eek:

mad_fan
08-27-2008, 10:15 PM
http://bighugelabs.com/flickr/output/motivator3308565.jpg

I swear those trailers just to the upper right of dead center spell...LOL...:eek:

country club
08-27-2008, 10:16 PM
Yall folks in Houston keep blowin hard to the east.........it seems to be workin!!!

the_phoenix612
08-27-2008, 10:17 PM
I swear those trailers just to the upper right of dead center spell...LOL...:eek:

http://egg.org.au/gallery/d/935-1/You+Win+an+Internet.jpg

mad_fan
08-27-2008, 10:30 PM
http://egg.org.au/gallery/d/935-1/You+Win+an+Internet.jpg

I invented the internet...

signed,
al mad_fan gore...

jrock210
08-27-2008, 10:31 PM
I swear those trailers just to the upper right of dead center spell...LOL...:eek:

:D LOL!

the_phoenix612
08-27-2008, 10:31 PM
I invented the internet...

signed,
al mad_fan gore...

http://failblog.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/fail-owned-truck-fail.jpg

cyfallsbooster2
08-27-2008, 10:32 PM
I swear those trailers just to the upper right of dead center spell...LOL...:eek:

THey do!!!!!:eek:

the_phoenix612
08-27-2008, 10:34 PM
THey do!!!!!:eek:

thats the POINT!

jrock210
08-27-2008, 10:34 PM
LOL WOW phoenix can't tell what sarcasm is!

the_phoenix612
08-27-2008, 10:35 PM
LOL WOW phoenix can't tell what sarcasm is!

LOL WOW jrock can't tell what sarcasm is!

mad_fan
08-27-2008, 10:36 PM
http://failblog.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/fail-owned-truck-fail.jpg

You are too so for me tonight....

the_phoenix612
08-27-2008, 10:37 PM
You are too so for me tonight....

farmer?

mad_fan
08-27-2008, 10:38 PM
LOL WOW phoenix can't tell what sarcasm is!

He's off tonight...
Or over looked the "I swear..." part...

mad_fan
08-27-2008, 10:40 PM
farmer?

That be a great game show for you to be on..."Are you smarter than a drunk farmer...":p

the_phoenix612
08-27-2008, 10:41 PM
He's off tonight...
Or over looked the "I swear..." part...

sorry, im posting, watching a movie, doing cal homework, and setting up a filesharing network....

:ninja:

mad_fan
08-27-2008, 10:43 PM
sorry, im posting, watching a movie, doing cal homework, and setting up a filesharing network....

:ninja:


Atleast nothing is getting in the way of the homework...
:rolleyes:

cyfallsbooster2
08-27-2008, 10:44 PM
sorry, im posting, watching a movie, doing cal homework, and setting up a filesharing network....

:ninja:

sheeait! I can't even spell half dem' words.:eek:

jrock210
08-28-2008, 07:29 AM
LOL WOW jrock can't tell what sarcasm is!

Mine was sarcasm, friend!

Favpack
08-28-2008, 07:34 AM
Gustav has definitely tracked back westward overnight. Models have shifted west.

jrock210
08-28-2008, 07:36 AM
Gustav has definitely tracked back westward overnight. Models have shifted west.

Any updates on when/where they say it should hit as of today?

KT2000
08-28-2008, 07:53 AM
Any updates on when/where they say it should hit as of today?

The models range from a Matagorda landfall to southern Mississippi. They are saying the models should start to cluster here in the next 24-48 hours, and we'll have a better idea of exactly where it is headed. As of now, much of the Gulf coast is still in play.

The sustained winds are up 30+ miles an hour from last night, so this thing blew back up once the center reformed over the Caribbean waters. The SW shift in track, in addition to a high pressure system in place over the northern Gulf has led most of the models west overnight.

The GFDL model, used by the NHC in Miami, still brings this thing onshore in Miss. However, given the location of the other models, it is anticipated the GFDL will also move west once recon aircraft collects its data this morning.

We "should" have a much clearer picture by tomorrow with possible landfall on Monday.

slorch
08-28-2008, 08:17 AM
Gustav needs to respect Texas football and steer plenty to the East.

Don't screw up our season you insolent puff of wind...:D

Favpack
08-28-2008, 08:36 AM
8 am Thurs. models seem to be grouping together toward central Louisiana, but with a still strong westwardly bias - any further westward shifting is gonna get us nervous.

cajun
08-28-2008, 09:53 AM
Here's a pretty decent link to the GUSTAV Storm...

After digesting all the information and knowing what I know about hurricanes(from college) this storm should hit Norman, Oklahoma Monday night..

No, actually, we gonna get wet...

http://www.bearpawsweather.com/tropical/index.html

Fleeman93
08-28-2008, 10:04 AM
Here's a pretty decent link to the GUSTAV Storm...

After digesting all the information and knowing what I know about hurricanes(from college) this storm should hit Norman, Oklahoma Monday night..

No, actually, we gonna get wet...

http://www.bearpawsweather.com/tropical/index.html


I wish that site had more information.

twcpfan1
08-28-2008, 10:07 AM
I wish that site had more information.

All you need to know is the TWHS Katy game is looking like it will be played

drgnbkr
08-28-2008, 10:14 AM
Latest track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W5+gif/143912W_sm.gif

the_phoenix612
08-28-2008, 10:29 AM
nm

tayb
08-28-2008, 11:05 AM
Latest track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W5+gif/143912W_sm.gif

Looks like it is pushing west a little bit. Won't know for sure until it clears the islands.

KT2000
08-28-2008, 02:05 PM
The models are centering on the Louisiana coast as of the 1 pm run. One model brings it right into Ponchartrain and the GFDL is still projecting a Mississippi/Alabama border landfall.

The main factor in the model differences right now is the timing of the storm's NW turn after passing Jamaica.

lonny23
08-28-2008, 07:55 PM
The models are centering on the Louisiana coast as of the 1 pm run. One model brings it right into Ponchartrain and the GFDL is still projecting a Mississippi/Alabama border landfall.

The main factor in the model differences right now is the timing of the storm's NW turn after passing Jamaica.
I have an active interest in this storm since it's probably going to make me miss going to football games tomorrow night and the whole weekend because I'll be working. We're talking high school tomorrow, Tech on Saturday, and even the Monday games.

My gut feeling is the storm will be bad. It won't lose much strength over Jamaica and 2/3 of the models have it barely touching Cuba, with 1 model skipping Cuba altogether. The obstacles are few and it's moving slow with millibars around 985 right now. I'm waiting to see how it turns from Jamaica, but the best hope for less damage and loss of life is a turn towards Mexico. It might only be a Category 2. If that thing hits Florida, it will probably be a Category 3 unless it hits South Florida and might be a 1 or 2. I think the Pascagoula/Mobile track will be a medium 3. The New Orleans and Lafayette models will probably be a strong Category 3. Anything that hits Lake Charles will probably be a Category 4 and that model that skips Cuba and tracks toward Lake Charles might be a Category 5. If it does hit Cuba, it might make a crazy track and fool us all.

My money is squarely on a hurricane with higher winds and surge than Katrina. The big question is how well is the potential target on Monday or Tuesday prepared for a storm and how many people live there?

lonny23
08-28-2008, 08:00 PM
Sorry, I've been visiting the weather blogs too much and get used to their "lingo". :)

There is a weather system (called "Invest 94" or "94L" until it becomes a tropical depression, and then when it becomes a tropical storm it gets a name) with a large area of thunderstorms just northeast of Venezuela. It has a good chance of developing into a significant tropical system over the course of the next week given the surrounding conditions. If that were to occur, it also has a chance of making its way to the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) according to where it is now.

We all know that once a large storm makes its way there, all of us here in Texas have to be alert.

Thus is life along the coast during hurricane season, but I think this will be the next system that has a chance of directly affecting us here in Texas.

I know most of us don't care until something is a couple days from landfall, but I like to follow them from the beginning.The current models aren't a great threat to Texas outside of Gustav. There is a formation halfway between North America and Africa that won't hit. There is a model further south just leaving Africa that is better developed and might be something to check out next week. It's moving pretty fast and isn't near the risk yet that Gustav might be.

lonny23
08-28-2008, 08:02 PM
94L turned into Tropical Depression #7 and after around 24 hours is now Tropical Storm "Gustav"...I would imagine that it wont take long for this one to become Hurricane Gustav. The lastest hurricane hunter (the guys who fly into the storm) information has it at 60 mph max winds already. It's headed in the NW direction right now.

Obviously it's still too early to know where it's going to go beyond that. The model runs are pretty widespread at this point. Let's just hope that it doesn't shoot the gap between the Yucatan and Cuba to make its way into the Gulf of Mexico. If that happens, someone along the gulf coast won't like what's headed to their doorstep.
It's going to hit at 150+ MPH if it shoots the gap.

lonny23
08-28-2008, 08:05 PM
we should probably do the prudent thing and buy 50 gallons of gas and put it in the garage, along with some ramen noodles and 10 cases of bottled water...

avoid gridlock, start the exodus now!!!
That's true. That's why the military is planning evacuations today for a storm that won't make land until Monday night or Tuesday.

lonny23
08-28-2008, 08:09 PM
Pretty eerie feeling about this.

This time, 3 years ago, TWHS played Katy at Reliant. A week later the Dome was a shelter for Katrina refugees.

Friday night, another Woodlands school plays at Reliant. With Gustav about to bear down on New Orleans.
I missed all the hubbub 3 years ago, but that's because I was landing in Kyrgyzstan. I did feel the nightmare of a bunch of personnel coming and going and a bunch more leaving on emergency leave because of Katrina. That thing was heading for Lousyanna as I was flying East. My fellow workers got to enjoy receiving military evacuees on short-notice.

lonny23
08-28-2008, 08:11 PM
Our weatherman stated Gustav is wanting to track back to the west this afternoon. Wunderground does not reflect this. It's only moving at 3 mph right now.
The latest report is it's moved from 5 to 7 MPH. The faster it goes, the less time it has to get stronger.

lonny23
08-28-2008, 08:13 PM
I have never visited New Orleans personally but I was under the assumption that the main tourist attraction areas like Bourbon street and downtown were re-built and doing fine. The entire city isn't a :Censor:hole as far as I know but a direct hurricane could certainly make it that way.
Most of New Orleans in my opinion as a former resident of the metro area is like Mad said.

lonny23
08-28-2008, 08:32 PM
cajun > Gustav
My gut feeling is this hurricane will go down as 1 of the 5 worst ever in the United States. You're going to feel it. The only question is how close it comes to you. For the record, Camille hit the mouth of the Mississippi (Not you, cajun!:D) and went on to MS and was still a hurricane 150 miles inland.

country club
08-28-2008, 09:11 PM
Headin down tomorrow afternoon. We'll be waxin down our boards and moving everything on the bottom floor up or taking it home. Wonder how many kids will skip school Monday to surf.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1FaflUn4Co

cajun
08-28-2008, 09:33 PM
It's going to hit at 150+ MPH if it shoots the gap.

:eek:

jc84chill
08-29-2008, 09:49 AM
The current models aren't a great threat to Texas outside of Gustav. There is a formation halfway between North America and Africa that won't hit. There is a model further south just leaving Africa that is better developed and might be something to check out next week. It's moving pretty fast and isn't near the risk yet that Gustav might be.

It's getting pretty nuts out there in the Atlantic right now. Tropical waves are lining up one right after another.

tayb
08-29-2008, 09:54 AM
It's getting pretty nuts out there in the Atlantic right now. Tropical waves are lining up one right after another.

It is ridiculous! Two hurricans/tropical storms have formed and there are two two other tropical waves that could become tropical storms following right after it... in nearly a straight line.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/two_atl.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W5_sm2+gif/085328W_sm.gif

jc84chill
08-29-2008, 09:57 AM
What I'm looking at now is just how quickly the pressure starts dropping and winds start increasing now that the COC has emerged out over water. It's at 988mb and 65mph right now, but I wouldn't be surprised if the hurricane hunters report back 90+ mph at the 1am update. Gustav's banding and size is looking much more impressive now, too.

Then we will all be looking at one impressive storm in the morning after it goes through Dmax around 5am.

cajun
08-29-2008, 10:02 AM
If all goes well maybe I'll get a couple extra days off next week...Maybe the whole week!...:cool:

tayb
08-29-2008, 10:03 AM
This thing could move across land and slam Dallas pretty hard if it gains enough speed and gets powerful enough.

jc84chill
08-29-2008, 10:05 AM
I feel for my buddies in the Cayman Islands. I visited Grand Cayman and Jamaica in June and absolutely love it down there. I really don't want that place to get leveled again like it did in 2004. They are literally just now back to looking like they did before that.

In Jamaica, I went to Montego Bay and they got hit pretty hard by Gustav yesterday. By the time it gets to Cayman tonight, it will be much stronger.

Favpack
08-29-2008, 10:39 AM
Prayers for Louisiana friends, but do you see where Gustav hits Texas? It's making a bee-line for the Pineywoods - ouch. I've never seen one come in with such a east to west move once it hits land?

tayb
08-29-2008, 01:41 PM
LSU has moved its Saturday season opener against App. State from 4pm to 10am due to Gustav.

Favpack
08-29-2008, 02:20 PM
Gustav projections are becoming a bioyatch. Latest models have more of an indication of craziness once it gets closer to land. One model has it backtracking and then re-entering between B'mont and Houston, which is EXACTLY how Katrina re-strengthened.

Stay tuned.

jc84chill
08-29-2008, 04:53 PM
What I'm looking at now is just how quickly the pressure starts dropping and winds start increasing now that the COC has emerged out over water. It's at 988mb and 65mph right now, but I wouldn't be surprised if the hurricane hunters report back 90+ mph at the 1am update. Gustav's banding and size is looking much more impressive now, too.

Then we will all be looking at one impressive storm in the morning after it goes through Dmax around 5am.

As of 5pm, Gustav has dropped to 977mb and has gained 10mph of wind now up to 75 mph.

jrock210
08-29-2008, 05:42 PM
Where do they think it's going to hit??

jc84chill
08-29-2008, 06:05 PM
As of 5pm, Gustav has dropped to 977mb and has gained 10mph of wind now up to 75 mph.

As expected, Gustav is intensifying quickly. The 7pm update will be coming out showing around 85 mph winds and 973ish mb.

jc84chill
08-29-2008, 06:08 PM
Where do they think it's going to hit??

jrock, the models are all still different at this point. They have anywhere from the central Texas coast to Mississippi. It's all going to depend on a high pressure ridge that's settling in in a few days north east of Texas.

I'll see if I can find some good stuff tonight after the games conclude.

jrock210
08-29-2008, 06:23 PM
jrock, the models are all still different at this point. They have anywhere from the central Texas coast to Mississippi. It's all going to depend on a high pressure ridge that's settling in in a few days north east of Texas.

I'll see if I can find some good stuff tonight after the games conclude.

When will they expect it to make landfall.

jc84chill
08-29-2008, 07:15 PM
When will they expect it to make landfall.

Could happen anywhere between Monday and Wednesday from what I understand

jrock210
08-29-2008, 07:28 PM
Could happen anywhere between Monday and Wednesday from what I understand

OK thanks we leave for CC tomorrow morning and get back late Monday so pray for us.

slorch
08-29-2008, 09:17 PM
LSU has moved its Saturday season opener against App. State from 4pm to 10am due to Gustav.

Tigerfan will have to start drinking earlier tonight and never go to bed for the 10AM game...

slorch
08-29-2008, 09:19 PM
When will they expect it to make landfall.

Tuesday AM if more easterly, into wednesday if it hits Texas coast

stevefoxsc
08-29-2008, 10:18 PM
thats just ryu caught in one of his epic hurricane kicks

lonny23
08-29-2008, 11:27 PM
Tuesday AM if more easterly, into wednesday if it hits Texas coast
I don't want it too far east because it makes me work and miss football games.

I don't want it too far west because we're talking tax dollars in Texas.

I'm fine with the current models of Houma, etc.

mad_fan
08-29-2008, 11:36 PM
I don't want it too far east because it makes me work and miss football games.

I don't want it too far west because we're talking tax dollars in Texas.

I'm fine with the current models of Houma, etc.

We're with you...
We don't want you to have to work...or miss a football game...


:rolleyes:

jc84chill
08-30-2008, 02:43 AM
Okay...now things are finally settling down with the football updates.

Here's the latest bulletin posted by the National Hurricane Center...

000
WTNT62 KNHC 300609
TCUAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
210 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008


DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 100
MPH...155 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

jc84chill
08-30-2008, 02:49 AM
The HH are making another pass through the center of circulation right now, so we'll see what kind of pressure and wind readings they come up with.

jc84chill
08-30-2008, 02:57 AM
It looks like they've found a pressure of 963mb. All of this new data will be updated in the 4am release which I will stay up for and post here.

hunterbunter
08-30-2008, 03:23 AM
check out tropical storm Hannah trying to enter the Gulf, she's a curvin!

jc84chill
08-30-2008, 03:41 AM
check out tropical storm Hannah trying to enter the Gulf, she's a curvin!

Yep...gonna be real interesting to see how the two interact with each other here very soon.

jc84chill
08-30-2008, 03:47 AM
Looks like the NHC is going with a pressure of 965mb and sustained 110mph winds with gusts of up to 130mph for the 4am. Wow...we are entering "major hurricane" status.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807.gif

jc84chill
08-30-2008, 05:01 AM
If you notice where they predict it to grow to a Category 4 hurricane at the 2pm Sunday mark...I believe that is where the "loop current" is located at present. If you're not familiar with these, view the photo and read the article below.

"Gustav headed for current that fuels big storms

By SETH BORENSTEIN – 15 hours ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — The difference between a monster and a wimp for Gulf of Mexico hurricanes often comes down to a small patch of warm deep water that's easy to miss. It's called the Loop Current, and hurricane trackers say Gustav is headed right for it, reminiscent of Katrina.

Gustav is likely to reach this current late Saturday, experts say. What happens next will be crucial, maybe deadly.

If Gustav hits the Loop Current and lingers in that hot spot, watch out. If the storm misses it or zips through the current, then Gustav probably won't be much of a name to remember.

The meandering Loop Current, located in the southeastern gulf, provides loads of hurricane fuel. It was a key stopover for nearly all the Gulf Coast killers of the past, including Katrina and Camille, said Florida International University professor Hugh Willoughby, former director of the government's hurricane research division.

Lynn "Nick" Shay, University of Miami meteorology and oceanography professor, flew over the gulf Thursday in a federal hurricane research plane to measure the Loop Current. He saw Gustav's forecast track going "right down the throat" of it.

"That's kind of the scary part here," Shay said. "You look at this and say, 'Boy I hope this thing doesn't really explode,' but it probably will."

It happened in 2005. "Katrina went over the Loop Current and intensified rapidly," said Mark DeMaria, a Colorado-based expert on hurricane strength with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Then less than a month later a weak tropical storm named Rita followed Katrina into the Loop Current. Thirty hours later it was a Category 5 monster.

Both Katrina and Rita later weakened — which often happens_ to Category 3 storms by landfall.

In the last several years, meteorologists have focused more attention on the Loop Current, which is only a couple of hundred miles long and not even 100 miles wide. The evidence linking it to the worst storms is beyond circumstantial, Shay said.

What's crucial is the depth of warm water in the current — several hundred feet — because it provides continuous high-octane fuel for a storm. Hurricanes use the heat from the water to grow stronger and in the process they churn up cooler water from below, which then slows or stops the feeding process. But in the Loop Current, the deeper water is also warm and it further feeds the storm.

The Loop Current constantly shifts, growing and shrinking and sending out smaller eddies. It's now starting to contract, but not soon enough.

On Friday, the National Hurricane Center warned: "Gustav is expected to be a large powerful hurricane as it approaches the northern gulf coast."

The one hopeful sign is that on his hurricane flight Thursday, Shay saw a pool of extra cool water north and west of the Loop Current. That could help counteract what he fears will be rapid strengthening. "

Here's the last 30 day loop of the currents currently in the Gulf and you can see the black spot which is right about where the prediction has Gustav going up to a Cat 4...

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/navo/IAS_nlomw12930doper.gif

jc84chill
08-30-2008, 05:13 AM
000
Wtnt62 Knhc 300953
Tcuat2
Hurricane Gustav Tropical Cyclone Update
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al072008
600 Am Edt Sat Aug 30 2008


Data From An Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft Indicate That
Gustav Continues To rapidly Strengthen And Now Has Maximum Winds
Near 115 Mph...185 Km/hr With Higher Gusts. This Makes Gustav A
Dangerous Category Three Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson Hurricane
Scale...the Second Major Hurricane Of The 2008 Atlantic Hurricane
Season.

$$
Forecaster Blake/avila

Also. the pressure is now down to 959mb and dropping quickly.

jc84chill
08-30-2008, 07:09 AM
000
WTNT32 KNHC 301200
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...MAJOR HURRICANE GUSTAV CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVER THE ISLE OF YOUTH...

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND
CIENFUEGOS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN
CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA...ISLA DE JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
135 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND ABOUT 225 MILES...360 KM
...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

GUSTAV HAS JOGGED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SOON RESUME A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV WILL PASS OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY EARLY MONDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 120
MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER WESTERN CUBA AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AND COULD REACH CATEGORY FOUR STATUS BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL THERE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM BOTH AIR FORCE
AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE
OF YOUTH. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...20.8 N...81.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

slorch
08-30-2008, 07:18 AM
You give Captain Ron( Mr Wizard) in Lubbock a run for his money in quantity of updates. He honestly broke into normal TV programming to tell us how high the wind gusts were at the TV station. He spoke into the camera with the wind guage flickering in the background. I was just thankful that instead of having to run down to the cellar for nothing, that this guy was able to give me play-by-play of each guts of wind on the TV.:rolleyes:

Seriously, thank you for the updates, but no one is safe in the Yard.:D

jc84chill
08-30-2008, 11:22 AM
You give Captain Ron( Mr Wizard) in Lubbock a run for his money in quantity of updates. He honestly broke into normal TV programming to tell us how high the wind gusts were at the TV station. He spoke into the camera with the wind guage flickering in the background. I was just thankful that instead of having to run down to the cellar for nothing, that this guy was able to give me play-by-play of each guts of wind on the TV.:rolleyes:

Seriously, thank you for the updates, but no one is safe in the Yard.:D

Haha...I'm pretty nuts and I know it. So flame away, I can handle it...:D

It looks like we're up to 125mph and down to 954mb pressure. This thing is showing some impressive outflow to the north.

cougmantx
08-30-2008, 12:26 PM
Haha...I'm pretty nuts and I know it. So flame away, I can handle it...:D

It looks like we're up to 125mph and down to 954mb pressure. This thing is showing some impressive outflow to the north.

If it hits that loop and then starts sucking more moisture from a weak front along with the moisture from the hot waters of the Gulf this think could double in size in a matter of hours. That is what happened to Katrina and Rita. The larger the size of the storm the more water it pushes in front of it, hence the huge storm surge. I measured a 21 foot surge 7 miles in from Bay St. Luis in Katrina. That's 7 miles in land with a 21 foot wave of water. Incredable. I have seen alot working hurricans and I lived in Boluxi, Miss when Cameal hit in 68, but I have never seen anything like that. This storm has the potential to do the same thing and I don't think Houston is out of the clear yet. I don't know how N.O. could take another one of these.

Good luck and gods speed for anyone in the path of this thing.

cougmantx
08-30-2008, 12:29 PM
CNN just said it is a cat 4 notw at 12:28 pm Sat. Hasn't hit Cuba yet so that should weaken it but then it will be in open hot water.

lonny23
08-30-2008, 02:11 PM
CNN just said it is a cat 4 notw at 12:28 pm Sat. Hasn't hit Cuba yet so that should weaken it but then it will be in open hot water.
It was 145 MPH winds at the 2 PM (1 Central update). It's predicted to be Category 5 when it hits Cuba tonight. They think it will be back down to Category 4 on Monday morning, but I doubt it. The one constant I've seen over the last few days is the size of the storm and predicted fury goes up ith each update. Each update has shown a better and better % of being a Category 4 or 5 hurricane.

ktCarl
08-30-2008, 02:18 PM
Well, if the deep, warm water feeds the storm why don't they seed the clouds with dry ice and just kill the hurricane?

How simple minded was that comment? :D

slorch
08-30-2008, 02:21 PM
Well, if the deep, warm water feeds the storm why don't they seed the clouds with dry ice and just kill the hurricane?

How simple minded was that comment? :D

kind like inflating tires to end the energy crisis... so simple, it's stupid!:rolleyes:

lonny23
08-30-2008, 02:27 PM
If you look at the computer models, it looks like Houma and/or Morgan City will get the worst of it, but with the way the 'cane is projected to move, it looks like New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Lafayette, and Lake Charles will all see hurricane winds and only Lake Charles will be on the good side of the hurricane.

ktCarl
08-30-2008, 02:27 PM
kind like inflating tires to end the energy crisis... so simple, it's stupid!:rolleyes:

My comment was so overly stupid but at the same time made sense. At least for 10 seconds.

lonny23
08-30-2008, 02:33 PM
kind like inflating tires to end the energy crisis... so simple, it's stupid!:rolleyes:
Speaking of that, what is the real gripe about ethanol? I've heard, "We're using too much corn to make ethanol?" I like to eat corn, but there are many things I can eat besides corn. The Shaggin' Wagon only takes gas and I don't mind cheaper gas.

lonny23
08-30-2008, 02:45 PM
Well, if the deep, warm water feeds the storm why don't they seed the clouds with dry ice and just kill the hurricane?

How simple minded was that comment? :D
I've got a simple one. Why live on the coast when you know you stand a good chance to have to replace your house? Some people never learn. In the old days, people would put up a dwelling close to the creek and then they figured out that their house would flood when it rained, so they moved to higher ground.

I have no problem with people wanting to live on the coast in colder water, but it's suicide to do it on the Gulf Coast and the South Atlantic isn't much better.

Those people that live in mudslide zones and on fault lines aren't any better. I still say there should be a stupid clause on houses and property.

lonny23
08-30-2008, 02:59 PM
The word right now is max winds of 162 after leaving Cuba and then dying out some before landfall. I'm sticking with Category 5 landfall for the 4th time ever. I think Camille made landfall at 190.

pied
08-30-2008, 03:16 PM
Speaking of that, what is the real gripe about ethanol? I've heard, "We're using too much corn to make ethanol?" I like to eat corn, but there are many things I can eat besides corn. The Shaggin' Wagon only takes gas and I don't mind cheaper gas.

I think the reasons are because now corn is being used for fuel, rather than for food for livestock, driving up food costs. In addition the production is not as efficient as originally touted.

cougmantx
08-30-2008, 03:17 PM
Speaking of that, what is the real gripe about ethanol? I've heard, "We're using too much corn to make ethanol?" I like to eat corn, but there are many things I can eat besides corn. The Shaggin' Wagon only takes gas and I don't mind cheaper gas.

I like corn but hardly ever eat it because of the high sugar content. Having said that, most of our livestock eat corn as a basis for their feed so the world economy has to compete for feeding the stock or feeding the people. It's driving up both prices. I couldn't believe the price of meat at HEB. I will have to call my brother in law to see when he is butchering another cow.

Favpack
08-30-2008, 03:50 PM
Well - we are officially gearing up around here. Saw a TxDOT truck hauling about 200 cases of water. I bought more D batteries, a 5 gallon jug for water, and a few other items.

Looks like SE Texas is gonna get slammed.

cougmantx
08-30-2008, 04:01 PM
Well - we are officially gearing up around here. Saw a TxDOT truck hauling about 200 cases of water. I bought more D batteries, a 5 gallon jug for water, and a few other items.

Looks like SE Texas is gonna get slammed.

Same here...I gotta go fill up my truck with Diesel. With both tanks it's 78 gallons...:(

the_phoenix612
08-30-2008, 04:30 PM
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_model.gif

that blue track would dump a heckuva lot of rain on DFW

jc84chill
08-30-2008, 04:52 PM
Well folks, if you haven't been paying attention....I would suggest starting now. Cat 5 predicted once it clears Cuba, Cat 4 landfall predicted, and Texas involved.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807.gif

mad_fan
08-30-2008, 06:01 PM
When will it arrive in St Paul???


:rolleyes:

lonny23
08-30-2008, 06:08 PM
Well - we are officially gearing up around here. Saw a TxDOT truck hauling about 200 cases of water. I bought more D batteries, a 5 gallon jug for water, and a few other items.

Looks like SE Texas is gonna get slammed.
Katrina got up to 175 MPH, but was huge. Camille got up to 190 MPH. I expect this storm to get to at least 180 and it might hit 200 with the warm water and nightfall in a few hours. It's going to be a nasty storm. The only question is how many people will live close to the path.

lonny23
08-30-2008, 06:10 PM
Well folks, if you haven't been paying attention....I would suggest starting now. Cat 5 predicted once it clears Cuba, Cat 4 landfall predicted, and Texas involved.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807.gif
I think it's going to be Cat 5 when they come out with an update around 7 Central.

cyfallsbooster2
08-30-2008, 06:44 PM
I like corn but hardly ever eat it because of the high sugar content. Having said that, most of our livestock eat corn as a basis for their feed so the world economy has to compete for feeding the stock or feeding the people. It's driving up both prices. I couldn't believe the price of meat at HEB. I will have to call my brother in law to see when he is butchering another cow.

I like to get the corn in the husk, load it with butter, wrap in foil and then grill it. MMM-MMM good!

And I like the way NO handles the evacuation notice today. "Let's move the LSU game up and then we will issue the mandatory evac after the game". Everyone should learn how to set priorities from that city.:p

Favpack
08-30-2008, 07:42 PM
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_model.gif

that blue track would dump a heckuva lot of rain on DFW

Am I the only one that sees a heck of a pass pattern schematic on this one?

rocketgrl94
08-30-2008, 07:44 PM
Well folks, if you haven't been paying attention....I would suggest starting now. Cat 5 predicted once it clears Cuba, Cat 4 landfall predicted, and Texas involved.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807.gif

i like this pattern better...SA cant handle dat!

Favpack
08-30-2008, 07:56 PM
i like this pattern better...SA cant handle dat!

Did you design that color grid? Pink?

slorch
08-30-2008, 08:30 PM
Am I the only one that sees a heck of a pass pattern schematic on this one?

If you have a lineman that can throw, six receivers sounds great.:D

I'll predict now the models will move to the east...

rocketgrl94
08-30-2008, 09:20 PM
Did you design that color grid? Pink?

no. if it was me it would be blue...my faaaaavorite color

country club
08-30-2008, 10:06 PM
Now might be a good time to start thinking GOOD THOUGHTS for our brothers and sisters from Plaquemine Parish over to Vermillion and Atchafalaya Bays. Salt of the earth folks, but most of that area isn't much more than 6 inches above sea level.

slorch
08-30-2008, 10:26 PM
Now might be a good time to start thinking GOOD THOUGHTS for our brothers and sisters from Plaquemine Parish over to Vermillion and Atchafalaya Bays. Salt of the earth folks, but most of that area isn't much more than 6 inches above sea level.

they will be seasalt people real quicklike if they choose to stay.

okt0ber
08-30-2008, 10:38 PM
i like this pattern better...SA cant handle dat!

Uh.... SA isn't a coastal city.

CoveMom
08-30-2008, 10:40 PM
Now might be a good time to start thinking GOOD THOUGHTS for our brothers and sisters from Plaquemine Parish over to Vermillion and Atchafalaya Bays. Salt of the earth folks, but most of that area isn't much more than 6 inches above sea level.


they will be seasalt people real quicklike if they choose to stay.

:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy very mad_fanesque. You have learned well, young Skywalker.

okt0ber
08-30-2008, 10:43 PM
:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy very mad_fanesque. You have learned well, young Skywalker.

Now if only we could train you..... :cool:

rocketgrl94
08-30-2008, 10:52 PM
Uh.... SA isn't a coastal city.

well duh i know that...i meant the heavy rain:rolleyes:

CoveMom
08-30-2008, 10:53 PM
Now if only we could train you..... :cool:

:Censor:

lonny23
08-30-2008, 11:01 PM
Am I the only one that sees a heck of a pass pattern schematic on this one?
I saw the projections on Weather Underground and thought, "I like those scenarios where it hits Lousyanna and Arkysaw and not Texas." I might hate East Texas, but not more than those 2 states.

lonny23
08-30-2008, 11:06 PM
Now might be a good time to start thinking GOOD THOUGHTS for our brothers and sisters from Plaquemine Parish over to Vermillion and Atchafalaya Bays. Salt of the earth folks, but most of that area isn't much more than 6 inches above sea level.
There are very few salt of the earth people in Lousyanna. There are too many racist people on both sides for me to feel that way. This hurricane couldn't happen to a better state among those that usually get hurricanes. CA gets earthquakes and mudslides so they get a little themselves.

lonny23
08-30-2008, 11:08 PM
Wind is down to 140 MPH and the storm size is smaller, but that was going over Cuba. It's back over water and it's about to get some nitro!

slorch
08-31-2008, 04:32 AM
:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy very mad_fanesque. You have learned well, young Skywalker.

you confuse he that is the pupil with he that is master...:D

svhorns
08-31-2008, 05:07 AM
this thread is :Censor: intense....

whats the latest update...

grayowl60
08-31-2008, 06:59 AM
Nawlins is being evacuated. Except for looters

mad_fan
08-31-2008, 07:45 AM
you confuse he that is the pupil with he that is master...:D

:rolleyes:...

twcpfan1
08-31-2008, 08:17 AM
I see where Gustav is over the Gulf. WTF are those other red things all over the Atlantic?

http://i.imwx.com/images/sat/tropsat_600x405.jpg

EagleDude73
08-31-2008, 08:37 AM
I see where Gustav is over the Gulf. WTF are those other red things all over the Atlantic?

http://i.imwx.com/images/sat/tropsat_600x405.jpg

Katy's band wagon followers dropping off.

HebronHawk
08-31-2008, 08:47 AM
I see where Gustav is over the Gulf. WTF are those other red things all over the Atlantic?

http://i.imwx.com/images/sat/tropsat_600x405.jpg

More hurricanes lining up to take their shot at the Gulf.

CoveMom
08-31-2008, 10:28 AM
I see where Gustav is over the Gulf. WTF are those other red things all over the Atlantic?



Simple answer: Storms (aka known as tropical waves, tropical disturbances, tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and plain old thunderstorms)

Or they could be Elven Ships heading into the West to diminish.

Got that?

;)

Favpack
08-31-2008, 11:38 AM
Things are in high gear around here in deep East Texas. Lufkin is full blown evacuation mode. I'll be shocked if we have school Tuesday, and all models show east Texas to get slammed by a Tropical depression for two days.

On a personal note, I'm not too concerned about my house, but if we get 15 inches of rain here - I'll get water in my office. Tomorrow evening I will probably put my four computers up on top of filing cabinets. What fun it will be.

twcpfan1
08-31-2008, 11:45 AM
I thought the acronymed profanity would give it away as angry sarcasm. Didn't really feel a smiley face was appropriate in this case.

CoveMom
08-31-2008, 11:47 AM
you confuse he that is the pupil with he that is master...:D

I know mad_fan. I have posted with mad_fan. You are no mad_fan.....



;)

cougmantx
08-31-2008, 11:48 AM
Things are in high gear around here in deep East Texas. Lufkin is full blown evacuation mode. I'll be shocked if we have school Tuesday, and all models show east Texas to get slammed by a Tropical depression for two days.

On a personal note, I'm not too concerned about my house, but if we get 15 inches of rain here - I'll get water in my office. Tomorrow evening I will probably put my four computers up on top of filing cabinets. What fun it will be.


Favpack, if you have flood insurance they will pay up to $1000.00 to remove contents items from the risk to a different location. This is not effected by the deductible. If you have a lot of office equipment and want to rent a truck and move it to higher ground they will cover the cost up to $1000.00.

Stay safe, my mother in law lives in Palestine and they are in a flood prone area but we can't get them to leave.

CoveMom
08-31-2008, 11:49 AM
I thought the acronymed profanity would give it away as angry sarcasm. Didn't really feel a smiley face was appropriate in this case.


Right back at you. :D

mad_fan
08-31-2008, 11:51 AM
Water Vapor anyone???
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html

:eek:

78 Spartan
08-31-2008, 11:57 AM
If this comes in just below New Orleans, it could be just as cataclysmic for the city, although the impacts would be different than Katrina.

The problem with Katrina was the counter-clockwise winds pushing Lake Pontchartrain from north to south over the levees and into the city.

If the storm tracks in underneath New Orleans, the storm surge will wreak havoc with the Westbank communities, and it's also possible that the Mississippi River could back up and spill over its banks.

In Katrina, the Mississippi wasn't the problem, but it could be here. If you think it was bad having the Lake waves spill into the city, imagine having the Mississippi River levees fail and have that river flow into the city.

Yikes. Unfortunately, this storm is going to ruin some communities. Let's just hope it isn't New Orleans. Baton Rouge is far enough inland that it can survive a direct hit. But Houma, Thibodaux, Morgan City, maybe even over towards Pattterson and even New Iberia and Lafayette ...... ouch.

CoveMom
08-31-2008, 12:44 PM
Let's just hope it isn't New Orleans.

You have another place to nominate?????

(I know you didn't mean to, but I inferred from your post that you
would gladly choose another place to be devestated and that that
would somehow be better than having NO hit. :rolleyes:)

lonny23
08-31-2008, 01:08 PM
The storm keeps wimping out on us. Going over Cuba took a heavy toll on the wind speed, size, and organization. This storm doesn't look near as nasty as 24 hours ago. It's supposed to intensify because of the warm currents, but it's over some of them now and it hasn't gotten stronger because it's been facing vertical wind shear since yesterday and will keep facing it until it hits land on Monday. It's been moving at 16-17 MPH and will make landfall sooner than originally thought.

It's expected to be a Category 3 when it hits land and be similar to Hurricane Betsy in 1965. The worst storm surge is predicted for New Orleans with 15-18 feet. Most projections still have the eye moving around Houma, but I did see one that has the storm hit Sabine Pass. The current winds are 115 MPH and the pressure has risen to 962 mb. There is still room for the storm to move, but it's more likely to move east towards MS and AL than very far into Texas.

lonny23
08-31-2008, 01:10 PM
You have another place to nominate?????

(I know you didn't mean to, but I inferred from your post that you
would gladly choose another place to be devestated and that that
would somehow be better than having NO hit. :rolleyes:)
My vote is there is no better place to hit than NO.

jc84chill
08-31-2008, 01:21 PM
Reports of 46 foot waves near the hurricane :eek:

Yep, just looked at the buoy data...45.9 footer.

F18mustang
08-31-2008, 01:34 PM
Reports of 46 foot waves near the hurricane :eek:

Yep, just looked at the buoy data...45.9 footer.

:eek:

cougmantx
08-31-2008, 01:35 PM
If this comes in just below New Orleans, it could be just as cataclysmic for the city, although the impacts would be different than Katrina.

The problem with Katrina was the counter-clockwise winds pushing Lake Pontchartrain from north to south over the levees and into the city.

If the storm tracks in underneath New Orleans, the storm surge will wreak havoc with the Westbank communities, and it's also possible that the Mississippi River could back up and spill over its banks.

In Katrina, the Mississippi wasn't the problem, but it could be here. If you think it was bad having the Lake waves spill into the city, imagine having the Mississippi River levees fail and have that river flow into the city.

Yikes. Unfortunately, this storm is going to ruin some communities. Let's just hope it isn't New Orleans. Baton Rouge is far enough inland that it can survive a direct hit. But Houma, Thibodaux, Morgan City, maybe even over towards Pattterson and even New Iberia and Lafayette ...... ouch.

Gretna got significant flooding during Katrina but nothing like it will be this time around. The west bank will get the brunt of this one if it stays on the projected path. I'm sure St. Bernard Parish, ninth ward and lower ninth ward along with Metire are going to get major flooding. It will be interesting to see if the levies hold in the Lakeside area.

Good luck to all.

CoveMom
08-31-2008, 02:11 PM
Not really. Houston isn't below sea level on three sides with a lake on another. It could cause some damage to Houston depending on how much strength it gained over the gulf but it wouldn't obliterate the city like it could New Orleans.


The main difference though is that I think Houston is above sea level so any flood would be a flash flood not a week of 15 foot standing water.


Exactly...Houston is a bidet...not a bowl...:D

Ergo....Houston would get a good cleaning from the 'bottom' up and NO would have all the, well, you know, flushed away. Apparently someone forgot to jiggle the handle after the last time......

twcpfan1
08-31-2008, 02:47 PM
Right back at you. :D

Yeah I know. But who says you're allowed :D

CoveMom
08-31-2008, 03:03 PM
Yeah I know. But who says you're allowed :D


This good enough for you?


To Whom It May Concern:

CoveMom is allowed to say anything to anybody at anytime.

:D

(with apologies to jc84chill)

Favpack
08-31-2008, 03:12 PM
Favpack, if you have flood insurance they will pay up to $1000.00 to remove contents items from the risk to a different location. This is not effected by the deductible. If you have a lot of office equipment and want to rent a truck and move it to higher ground they will cover the cost up to $1000.00.

Stay safe, my mother in law lives in Palestine and they are in a flood prone area but we can't get them to leave.

OK - thanks for the note Coug - I will check my renters policy on flooding -and get this stuff elevated. The roof will be fine, but I've got a major creek behind me. It's never flooded here, but it got a little close with a 7" rain - double that and I'm in trouble. We'll just see how it goes.

Favpack
08-31-2008, 03:13 PM
On a lighter note, I helped an 80 year old Port Arthur man get from Target to a shelter. God bless him - I think he's tired of these hurricanes.

twcpfan1
08-31-2008, 03:19 PM
This good enought for you?
































:D

(with apologies to jc84chill)


That's it. I'm getting my big sister to beat the pair of you up :Censor::D

lonny23
08-31-2008, 03:31 PM
On a lighter note, I helped an 80 year old Port Arthur man get from Target to a shelter. God bless him - I think he's tired of these hurricanes.If he's tired of 'canes, tell him to move. I know it sounds cold, but it's true. If you choose to live on fault lines, mudslide areas, fire zones, or hurricane areas, you're playing with fire. The only reason I don't say tornadoes is because they've happened in all 50 states and are so random and I've never seen a tornado that had the same damage as these other major catastrophes.

EagleDude73
08-31-2008, 03:54 PM
4:00 update just out - go to wunderground.com. Could take Katrina or still the Rita track. Texas mandatory evacs initialized in Golden Triangle area.

mad_fan
08-31-2008, 04:02 PM
4:00 update just out - go to wunderground.com. Could take Katrina or still the Rita track. Texas mandatory evacs initialized in Golden Triangle area.

Welcome back from...summer vacation...:)

EagleDude73
08-31-2008, 04:13 PM
Welcome back from...summer vacation...:) THANKS.

ALERT: HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO HIGH ISLAND JUST EAST OF HOUSTON!!! NOT A WATCH, A WARNING.

LoneRocket
08-31-2008, 04:15 PM
--

mad_fan
08-31-2008, 04:17 PM
The Nagin said if you are caught looting you will be sent straight to Angola and placed in GEN. POP. and GOD help you.

wtf is 'The Nagin'???

EagleDude73
08-31-2008, 04:25 PM
wtf is 'The Nagin'???

Ray Nagin, the mayor of N.O. OK, here I'll spell it out for you. -
N-E-W O-R-L-E-A-N-S. :eek:

the_phoenix612
08-31-2008, 04:52 PM
anybody remember this?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJY0NuBC7vo
Focus on the Family asking people to pray for "rain of biblical proportions" on the Democratic Convention....
seems like the big guy hit the wrong target:rolleyes:

yankee
08-31-2008, 05:30 PM
There are very few salt of the earth people in Lousyanna. There are too many racist people on both sides for me to feel that way. This hurricane couldn't happen to a better state among those that usually get hurricanes. CA gets earthquakes and mudslides so they get a little themselves.

i beg to differ about the people...but either way, we shouldn't sit here bashing them, as they can't control the weather. the whole gulf coast should be in everyone's prayers...this storm may not be as strong as it could be, but it's still a cat 3...katrina was a cat 3 when it hit and this one isn't as strong but it will still wreak havoc...

EagleDude73
08-31-2008, 11:43 PM
please see the Weather channel thread for any updates.

jrock210
08-31-2008, 11:47 PM
please see the Weather channel thread for any updates.

This thread is alot further along then TWC one post updates here.

EagleDude73
08-31-2008, 11:56 PM
I am posting real time images of the track of Gustav as it approaches landfall.

http://www.stormtrack.org/radar/gustavloop.gif

EagleDude73
08-31-2008, 11:57 PM
This thread is alot further along then TWC one post updates here.

You have attempted to hijack all info concerning this storm and I don't find it funny at all.

Shokkin da wrld
08-31-2008, 11:58 PM
Wow!

EagleDude73
09-01-2008, 12:30 AM
the last one hour radar shows Gustav making that westly move. Landfall may be in Sabine Pass, Port Arthur or even High Island. It is now slowing down, NOT GOOD for Texas.

EagleDude73
09-01-2008, 12:35 AM
the last one hour radar shows Gustav making that westly move. Landfall may be in Sabine Pass, Port Arthur or even High Island. It is now slowing down, NOT GOOD for Texas.

The GFDL has this motion. Where's JROCK trying to make fun now?

wesaxman34
09-01-2008, 12:36 AM
It even looks like it is projected to die away in the Dallas area:

http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/tropical/map_tropprjpath07_ltst_5nhato_enus_600x405.jpg

jtk1519
09-01-2008, 12:38 AM
God hates Louisiana.

jrock210
09-01-2008, 12:41 AM
God hates Louisiana.

Agreed.....Now why not put all of this inside this thread:
http://www.5atexasfootball.com/forum/vB/showthread.php?t=31977&page=13

EagleDude73
09-01-2008, 12:42 AM
It even looks like it is projected to die away in the Dallas area:

http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/tropical/map_tropprjpath07_ltst_5nhato_enus_600x405.jpg

Or even dive south and die out in SA or between SA and Laredo. In any case, our LA friends are here once again and we can be the victims as well as they are.
The GFDL and NGFDL models appear to be the new ones. We will see how accurate they are. Penn State has the GFDL which they update every hour. Question: TAM is in Texas and PSU has better hurricane technology. Please, somebody explain.

jrock210
09-01-2008, 12:42 AM
You have attempted to hijack all info concerning this storm and I don't find it funny at all.
Really
:rolleyes: