Hurricane Ike updates

[tayb]

Agreed.....Now why not put all of this inside this thread:
http://www.5atexasfootball.com/forum/vB/showthread.php?t=31977&page=13

It is probably a better idea to create at least four and whine and complain that others are hijacking the thread in each every one of them. A single thread to discuss ONE HURRICANE is just not nearly enough.

[jc84chill]

Threads merged...lets keep this on the topic at hand...

[EagleDude73]

Possibly Vermilon Bay with the latest posters.

[jc84chill]

http://www.gregledet.net/hurricam/hurricam.html

LIVE webcam called the "Hurricam" from Houma, LA to watch it come in if you'd like...every now and then there is a dude chillin getting his drink on, so don't mind him while he has his little hurricane party. :)

[EagleDude73]

the latest models

http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark7latest.png

[EagleDude73]

http://www.gregledet.net/hurricam/hurricam.html

LIVE webcam called the "Hurricam" from Houma, LA to watch it come in if you'd like...every now and then there is a dude chillin getting his drink on, so don't mind him while he has his little hurricane party. :)

thanks, there is still that GFDL & NGFDL that wants to go more west just before landfall. I am trying to find that site that traks this motion against radar.

[EagleDude73]

Projected landfall based upon the GFDL from Penn State:

http://tc.met.psu.edu/index.html#omd

Click on 07L Gustav and submit or select your time period next.

[lonny23]

i beg to differ about the people...but either way, we shouldn't sit here bashing them, as they can't control the weather. the whole gulf coast should be in everyone's prayers...this storm may not be as strong as it could be, but it's still a cat 3...katrina was a cat 3 when it hit and this one isn't as strong but it will still wreak havoc...
1. I've spent too much time living in that state and being in that state to not know the people are as I describe.

2. You're right they can't control the weather. That's why they shouldn't live there.

3. 3 years ago I read prophecies about a cleansing coming to Lousyanna. It never happened because the people are still the same way. I view potential tragedies in that state as the last hope to get people to act right.

4. You might ask "What about Texas?' I don't think the Golden Triangle is any better or much of East Texas.

[EagleDude73]

At 3 AM, NHC tract is the positive tract. Landfall is on track for Vermillon Bay/ Morgan City LA. This is a westerly landfall which may be a LONG landfall. Additional movement to the west is not out of the question. ET may have a significant impact. This statement is consistant with all reports.

Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 3:00 am Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:
is that westerly motion still there?


I've been tracking the center since after 11pm and it has not changed at all from its northwest course

[svhorns]

http://www.gregledet.net/hurricam/hurricam.html

LIVE webcam called the "Hurricam" from Houma, LA to watch it come in if you'd like...every now and then there is a dude chillin getting his drink on, so don't mind him while he has his little hurricane party. :)

your better is better than my better... great video... im hooked

[yankee]

idk if she's on right now...but i <3 stephanie abrams...

[jc84chill]

your better is better than my better... great video... im hooked

haha...half of the entertainment is reading the chat. Did you just start watching?

[svhorns]

http://www.gregledet.net/hurricam/hurricam.html

LIVE webcam called the "Hurricam" from Houma, LA to watch it come in if you'd like...every now and then there is a dude chillin getting his drink on, so don't mind him while he has his little hurricane party. :)

lol just found out the guy put some panties on a pole to show how hard the wind was blowing... so far the pair of panties are still on the pole!!!

[svhorns]

haha...half of the entertainment is reading the chat. Did you just start watching?

lol yea the "caution stick" I guess they took the audio off about 3 hours ago... don't know why they would do that but I can't stop watching

[EagleDude73]

haha...half of the entertainment is reading the chat. Did you just start watching?

I've been reading it all night and watching the cam - we need this for HS football.

[EagleDude73]

On their blog they keep talking about a guy named dan his number is 985-232-6712. Everybody call him and tell him about texas football.

[svhorns]

this man is drunker than howard schnellenberger on a saturday night at an FAU frat party.... Dan(guy in video) is a trooper...

[jc84chill]

this man is drunker than howard schnellenberger on a saturday night at an FAU frat party.... Dan(guy in video) is a trooper...

there are about to be some strong storms coming in to this guys compound. I feel like I'm watching from inside a prison yard.

[EagleDude73]

On their blog they keep talking about a guy named dan his number is 985-232-6712. Everybody call him and tell him about texas football.

they are all laughing on the blog. - daniel barsch mailbox is full.
:notworthy

[svhorns]

holy crap the guy just took off running!!! ahhh!!!

[CedarHillDad]

I am posting real time images of the track of Gustav as it approaches landfall.

http://www.stormtrack.org/radar/gustavloop.gif

what website is this from eagledude? it is awesome by the way!!!

[CedarHillDad]

holy crap the guy just took off running!!! ahhh!!!

I hate firewalls.:Censor: I can't go the live feed

[jc84chill]

I hate firewalls.:Censor: I can't go the live feed

Top O' the mornin to ya CHDad...

Enjoyed watching your boys play yesterday...that was a beat down.

[CedarHillDad]

Top O' the mornin to ya CHDad...

Enjoyed watching your boys play yesterday...that was a beat down.

It sure was. I enjoyed myself (well until about 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, then scary time hit me)..

[jc84chill]

I hate firewalls.:Censor: I can't go the live feed

You're not missing anything yet...we are all watching a caution flag hung at the top of a fence to see signs of strong winds. But every now and then a couple dudes show up.

[CedarHillDad]

You're not missing anything yet...we are all watching a caution flag hung at the top of a fence to see signs of strong winds. But every now and then a couple dudes show up.

thx for the play by play.

I can't understand why you guys aren't in bed.:confused: I am up because I have to be.

[jc84chill]

This dude just tried to hold a note up to the camera...all i could make out was "CNN". I know they showed this cam on CNN earlier..was kinda nuts. But now the focus is all blurry.

[jc84chill]

thx for the play by play.

I can't understand why you guys aren't in bed.:confused: I am up because I have to be.

Well, there's a few of us who are always hanging out here in the yard at this time of the morning. I'm usually up working on things for the site while KT sleeps. I'm pretty low on the totem poll.

[EagleDude73]

You're not missing anything yet...we are all watching a caution flag hung at the top of a fence to see signs of strong winds. But every now and then a couple dudes show up.


I just talked to Dan seriously he had to go because CNN had tracked him down. He is getting hits from India. I told him to let CNN know that people from Texas that are interested in football are calling. He is trying to get more people for the cam.

[CedarHillDad]

Well, there's a few of us who are always hanging out here in the yard at this time of the morning. I'm usually up working on things for the site while KT sleeps. I'm pretty low on the totem poll.

that sucks. you need to put a :ninja: move on KT:D

[jc84chill]

that sucks. you need to put a :ninja: move on KT:D

Haha...I learned many a year ago that you don't mess with a bulldog while he's eating or sleeping. Don't let his laid back or quiet demeanor fool you.

[jc84chill]

In other news...did yall see the new blog we just put up earlier? You can get there from the homepage. Should be some good reads on there throughout the season.

[CedarHillDad]

In other news...did yall see the new blog we just put up earlier? You can get there from the homepage. Should be some good reads on there throughout the season.

I checked it out... I am in H.S. Football information overload, thanks for putting me over the top:notworthy:D:notworthy

[jc84chill]

I checked it out... I am in H.S. Football information overload, thanks for putting me over the top:notworthy:D:notworthy

That's what we're here for!

[CedarHillDad]

also thanks Eagle Dude for the images from stormtrack.org I am impressing my co-workers right now:D

[jc84chill]

Did we lose EagleDude and SVHorn?

[CedarHillDad]

Did we lose EagleDude and SVHorn?

hmmm looks like we did...

[EagleDude73]

Did we lose EagleDude and SVHorn?

No I'm talking to Dan & CNN. Really.

[CedarHillDad]

No I'm talking to Dan & CNN. Really.

make sure you tell them Texas Football is better than the rest of the US:D

[svhorns]

Did we lose EagleDude and SVHorn?

no way buddy... i'm here through thick and thin... im pot committed... its all in from here on out

and he fixed the blurry camera!!!! heck yes

[EagleDude73]

...and yes from what I see there is a total western jog. Is there enough real estate to get to texas. Don't know. I'm still looking at Vermillion Bay but I'm not going to count Sabine Pass or high island out yet. I think it's still half time.

[svhorns]

the eye is about 45-60 mins away... the lightning and thunder just started up its getting pretty intense... this camera is one of the most amazing things ive ever seen... i wish u guys were up to see this :Censor:

[twcpfan1]

Did we lose EagleDude and SVHorn?

I know this is going to sound selfish as heck, but how do we think this will affect the games at Woodforest this Friday and Saturday?

[grayowl60]

Been watching NOLA.com. Still got some live video from around NO working

[tayb]

A little bit off topic but as Gustav bears down on Louisiana tropical storm Hanna is about to become a hurriane and could shoot the gap between florida and Cuba. Farther out in the Atlantic tropical Depression Nine has formed and looks to pick up a lot of strength over the long voyage. On top of that there are two tropical waves in between Nine and Hanna with a low potential for formation (but still a potential) and another wave behind Nine with a medium potential for formation. At the moment there are three tropical storms or hurricans in the water and three more that could become. Crazy stuff out there.

http://http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/two_atl.gif

[jrock210]

Threads merged...lets keep this on the topic at hand...

Why did you delete the shift8king thread?

[EagleDude73]

Why did you delete the shift8king thread?

$$

[jrock210]

Off topic - this thread is about hurricanes.

:rolleyes: Whatever dude just asking a freaking question?
It turned into a Category 2 when it hit land.....The End!

[cyfallsbooster2]

:rolleyes: Whatever dude just asking a freaking question?
It turned into a Category 2 when it hit land.....The End!

For sure. Some of these guys started reminding me of Wayne Dolcifino!:eek:

[Favpack]

Still no real rain here, just wind. I think the big bands start wrapping around after midnight. Eye is moving up over Hemphill, then Longview and Paris.

[cyfallsbooster2]

Still no real rain here, just wind. I think the big bands start wrapping around after midnight. Eye is moving up over Hemphill, then Longview and Paris.

Hope you guys do ok with this. Stay safe. And dry if possible.:D

[Favpack]

Hope you guys do ok with this. Stay safe. And dry if possible.:D

Thanks - I'm predicting 4 inches of rain and some gusty winds - but that's hopeful guessing. I think west. LA up to Shreveport could have a rougher day.

[cyfallsbooster2]

Thanks - I'm predicting 4 inches of rain and some gusty winds - but that's hopeful guessing. I think west. LA up to Shreveport could have a rougher day.

Heck, 4" and some wind ain't nothin' for us southeast and east Texas guys.;)

[tayb]

I don't get it. The National Hurricane Center keeps projecting hurricane to go north and every single day it continues to not go north. Does anyone know why they think this?

[Favpack]

Gustav moved into a due northerly direction overnight. Texas will have a non-event day today. Light rain and some gusty winds.

Thankfully LISD didn't do anything rash like cancel school or move gamedays too far in advance.

[slorch]

Gustav moved into a due northerly direction overnight. Texas will have a non-event day today. Light rain and some gusty winds.

Thankfully LISD didn't do anything rash like cancel school or move gamedays too far in advance.

I had heard that they had opened Lufkin schools for up to 1000 evacuees. Did that not happen?

I have business partners up there in the grocery industry and they said all weekend business was very brisk, as if there were definitely more people in the Lufkin Nac area. Do you know if any evacuees were actually sheltered at the school?

[Favpack]

I had heard that they had opened Lufkin schools for up to 1000 evacuees. Did that not happen?

I have business partners up there in the grocery industry and they said all weekend business was very brisk, as if there were definitely more people in the Lufkin Nac area. Do you know if any evacuees were actually sheltered at the school?

None were sheltered in schools. LHS is used as the check-in point for evacuees. They are wrist-banded, then dispersed to shelters. We housed about 2,000 evacuees total - give or take 200.

The primary shelters were First Methodist, Carpenters Way, First Assembly, Clawson Assembly, and a few others I'm missing. Lots of folks volunteered lots of hours over the past several days. Schools are used only after all church shelters fill up.

School is open and operating today.

[tayb]

The Atlantic is going absolutely nuts. There are three tropical storms in a row right now all moving the same general direction towards the Florida area.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/two_atl.gif

Tropical Storm Hanna Projected Path. I wouldn't count on it actually following this path. For the past four days they have been projecting to turn north and it has done the exact opposite.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT08/refresh/AL0808W5_sm2+gif/145314W_sm.gif

Tropical Storm Ike projected path. Looks like it is headed straight for Cuba... again. Could possibly shoot the gap between Cuba and Florida and hit Texas coast but that is a week away.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5_sm2+gif/145612W_sm.gif

Tropical Storm Josephine projected path. Looks like it will hit north of Florida along the east coast but it is pretty far away at this point so who knows.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT10/refresh/AL1008W5_sm2+gif/144814W_sm.gif

[slorch]

None were sheltered in schools. LHS is used as the check-in point for evacuees. They are wrist-banded, then dispersed to shelters. We housed about 2,000 evacuees total - give or take 200.

The primary shelters were First Methodist, Carpenters Way, First Assembly, Clawson Assembly, and a few others I'm missing. Lots of folks volunteered lots of hours over the past several days. Schools are used only after all church shelters fill up.

School is open and operating today.

I guess Lufkin is passionate about people, as well as the Pack!

Kudos to the purple people...:notworthy

[tayb]

Tropical Storm Ike is now Hurricane Ike with winds up to 80 mph but there is a lot of ocean left to cover before it hits any land, predictably Cuba, so it could strengthen up quite a bit over the next several days. The NHC predicts it will scrape the northern side of Cuba and pass over the bottom of Florida and possibly into the Gulf.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5_sm2+gif/204313W_sm.gif

[jc84chill]

Tropical Storm Ike is now Hurricane Ike with winds up to 80 mph but there is a lot of ocean left to cover before it hits any land, predictably Cuba, so it could strengthen up quite a bit over the next several days. The NHC predicts it will scrape the northern side of Cuba and pass over the bottom of Florida and possibly into the Gulf.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5_sm2+gif/204313W_sm.gif

Hurricane Ike is looking extremely impressive. If that thing makes its way into the GOM, watch out...again. I'll be following and posting updates on this storm in a few days (taking a rest after the Gustav epic).

[tayb]

Hurricane Ike is looking extremely impressive. If that thing makes its way into the GOM, watch out...again. I'll be following and posting updates on this storm in a few days (taking a rest after the Gustav epic).

Speak of the devil...

Ike has gone from a Tropical Storm early this morning into a monster Category 3.

[Favpack]

If Ike is Cat 4 on that path- Florida will not keep it out of the GOM.

Remember Katrina's path? It careened off Florida - then spun out and back up through Miss.

[tayb]

If Ike is Cat 4 on that path- Florida will not keep it out of the GOM.

Remember Katrina's path? It careened off Florida - then spun out and back up through Miss.

Yeah Katrina went on a crazy path. It formed just outside of Florida on the keys and became a hurricane unbelievably fast. It barely made it across Florida but once it got into the warm water in the gulf it made a sharp turn north and went from a category 1 to a category 5 in about 18 hours.

Hurricane Ike has strengthened up to a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 135 mph as of 11pm. The NHC expects it to drop back down to a category 3 by this time tomorrow night but the path is still relatively unknown.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5_sm2+gif/025413W_sm.gif

It could very easily shoot the gap between Florida and Cuba and hit the gulf of Mexico as an already strong storm. It could also very easily continue turning north and skid alongside the east coast. Have to wait until this weekend for a more accurate picture.

[hunterbunter]

is there such thing as higher than a category 5?

[the_phoenix612]

is there such thing as higher than a category 5?

its called category "Oh :Censor: run!" :D

[hunterbunter]

its called category "Oh :Censor: run!" :D

lmao. category :Censor: this! :D

[tayb]

is there such thing as higher than a category 5?

There has actually been some call in the last couple of years to add a Category 6 to the Saffir-Simpson scale for hurricanes with sustained winds over 180 mph. Nothing has ever come of up but if we start getting more monster hurricanes with windows excessive of a category 5 you might see a new category 6 established... doubtful though.

[hunterbunter]

yea thats why im askin, cuz the atlantic has been busy this season so far, and these storms look like they are getting worse and worse

[tayb]

yea thats why im askin, cuz the atlantic has been busy this season so far, and these storms look like they are getting worse and worse

The general consensus (from the powers that be) is that category 5 winds are as dangerous as they are going to get and the difference between 155 and 185 in terms of damage being done is moot.

I disagree with that assessment because the scale was unveiled in 1973 and you can't tell me that structural integrity and resistance to winds hasn't dramatically increased in the past 35 yards.

[hunterbunter]

The general consensus (from the powers that be) is that category 5 winds are as dangerous as they are going to get and the difference between 155 and 185 in terms of damage being done is moot.

I disagree with that assessment because the scale was unveiled in 1973 and you can't tell me that structural integrity and resistance to winds hasn't dramatically increased in the past 35 yards.

well i can kinda understand why that is, because regardless anything that is a category 5 is usually gonna create a mandatory evacuation. and really all that matters is keeping the people safe. so i guess it wouldnt make sense to create a category 7 if category 5 is reason enough to get the hell out :ninja:

[tayb]

Most weather outlets incorrectly predicted hurricane Ike to slow down to a category two or three and as of 11:00pm today maximum sustained winds are still at a Category 4 level at 135 mph.

Current NHC path has the storm hitting Florida from the bottom and traveling north the entire length of the state. That would suck. There are also some projections of it spinning off the bottom of Florida and into the gulf but I guess we'll wait and see.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5_sm2+gif/024614W_sm.gif

[jc84chill]

The latest word has this track (below) shifting more to the south and to the west. It should look more similar to the white track in the 2nd picture below very soon.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_5day.gif

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_ensmodel.gif
Figure 2. Forecast tracks for Ike from the latest run of the GFS model ensemble. The ensemble is generated by initializing the GFS model with 21 slightly different initial conditions, then plotting where Ike goes with each model run. There are a lot of possibilities! The white line is what the operational version of the GFS model predicts. The GFS ensemble is not available as quickly as the regular operation version of the GFS.

[tayb]

Wow. Could they be re-evacuating again?

[jc84chill]

Wow. Could they be re-evacuating again?

It's certainly possible :eek:...the next couple days will be telling with the different shifts in the models for the 5 day prediction. Once this thing gets closer to the florida keys, we should have a much better location to zero in on along the Gulf coast. At that point, landfall should be closer to the much more accurate 3 day model.

[CoveMom]

This model track is scary.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09.gif

[rocketgrl94]

Have ya'll seen this one!

http://www.stormpulse.com/

[EagleDude73]

Got your attention- GOOD - not trying to steal your show JC & HookEm. Major Cat 4 Hurricane 'Ike' is getting ready to track into the Florida Keys. Once through there, it is expected to 'curve 'north into the FL panhandle/Ala/Miss/NOLA area. There is no guarantee at this point of this projected path. If it misses it's curve, then welcome to Texas. Rocketgrl from Judson turned me on to a website tonight of which I was not aware . I like it along with the other sites we have all been monitoring. www.stormpulse.com For all of you noobs, we like to take care of our own, even if we disagree on the teams we support. After all, we are all supporters of football and like to see our brothers & sisters taken care of. Please, put this storm into your watch.

[tayb]

The storm has actually been pushing west pretty hard and will probably largely miss Florida. Latest models have it headed for the border between Texas and Louisiana but it will probably curve up and follow a path eerily similar to Gustav. Good thing (for us at least, not for Cuba) is that the center looks to be travel along Cuba lengthwise and weaken considerably before hitting the Gulf. Anything can happen once it hits the warm water in the gulf (Katrina went from TS to Cat 5 in about 18 hours once in the gulf) though.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_5day.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5_sm2+gif/024713W_sm.gif

[Favpack]

IKE sucks - oh well - here we go again.

[EagleDude73]

HookEm - Do you like this website?

[slorch]

I'm sick of hurricanes...:mad::Censor:

[EagleDude73]

I'm sick of hurricanes...:mad::Censor:

BOT.

[dada]

Ike is full of potential.....but always comes up short......Cat 7 on paper....but more like a Tropical Depression when it hits.......oh....we're talking about the storm? sorry.

[EagleDude73]

Ike is full of potential.....but always comes up short......Cat 7 on paper....but more like a Tropical Depression when it hits.......oh....we're talking about the storm? sorry.

and your the new President! CoveMom, why am I in charge of a prison?

[jc84chill]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_model.gif

[svhorns]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_model.gif

so lets say that Ike will in fact take one of those tracks in the above picture.... after it hits Cuba and goes back into the gulf how much power could it regenerate??? and what are the predictions as far as category goes??

yea I'm asking you for more predictions... this time only weather....

[slorch]

BOT.

what's that one mean?:confused::D

[mad_fan]

so lets say that Ike will in fact take one of those tracks in the above picture.... after it hits Cuba and goes back into the gulf how much power could it regenerate??? and what are the predictions as far as category goes??

yea I'm asking you for more predictions... this time only weather....

This AM they said down to CAT 1 over Cuba...than back up to CAT 3 before US landfall...

Sucks to be Cuba...

[slorch]

This AM they said down to CAT 1 over Cuba...than back up to CAT 3 before US landfall...

Sucks to be Cuba...

don't act like the storm has anything to do with that...

[CoveMom]

and your the new President! CoveMom, why am I in charge of a prison?

Prisons/Bans. You have the experience to empathize.

;)

[tayb]

so lets say that Ike will in fact take one of those tracks in the above picture.... after it hits Cuba and goes back into the gulf how much power could it regenerate??? and what are the predictions as far as category goes??

yea I'm asking you for more predictions... this time only weather....

Anything can happen once it is in the gulf. There are random patches of warm water that extend 200 feet deep that could jump start Ike to a category 5 and there are a couple of cold patches that could weaken and make the hurricane no big deal. If you remember hurricane Katrina it went from a tropical storm just below Florida into a category 5 in the Gulf very quickly because it hit one of these patches of warm water. Have to wait and see really.

[EagleDude73]

http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/hurricane-ike-2008

[CoveMom]

http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/hurricane-ike-2008

Well, that one got my attention, but good. I see a beeline for Houston at this point. Anyone else see that?

Hold on to your hats and kids, this one could actually come to Texas.

[country club]

C'mon now all you Houstonians, it worked for GUSTAV. Face the East and.............Blow Hard......Harder......you can do it!!!!!!!!!!! :eek:

[ktCarl]

It looks like it's heading for Sargent, TX. I bet it takes a couple of more Southerly moves and hits Brownsville. It will be a Category 1 after Cuba breaks it up.

[jc84chill]

The eye wall has disappeared pretty quickly upon landfall in Cuba. It might actually get all of the way down to a Tropical Storm if it traverses Cuba like they expect it to. Like HookEm said though, all bets are off after that. We saw Gustav encounter some weakening elements that weren't expected towards the end, but the opposite is just as likely. We just won't have a good handle on it until that 3-day until landfall cone.

I certainly don't like where it's looking right now, and to top it off, it could ruin what is looking like will be a great weekend of games.

I'll get out there and find some updated pictures to post as soon as I finish getting these updates out.

[tayb]

The eye wall has disappeared pretty quickly upon landfall in Cuba. It might actually get all of the way down to a Tropical Storm if it traverses Cuba like they expect it to. Like HookEm said though, all bets are off after that. We saw Gustav encounter some weakening elements that weren't expected towards the end, but the opposite is just as likely. We just won't have a good handle on it until that 3-day until landfall cone.

I certainly don't like where it's looking right now, and to top it off, it could ruin what is looking like will be a great weekend of games.

I'll get out there and find some updated pictures to post as soon as I finish getting these updates out.

Yeah the latest 3-day trackers have it basically traveling along Cuba lengthwise which should weaken it considerably. Even with this information though most places I have looked still expect it to emerge back out into the gulf as a Category 2 or 1.

Good news, for Louisiana and New Orleans at least, is that it appears to be pushing west pretty hard and will probably miss the entire Louisiana coast. That means bad news for the Texas coast as it appears to be barreling straight towards Galveston. Anything could happen after Wednesday there are a lot of warm dead zones in the gulf.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809.gif

[jc84chill]

The 4am update just came out from the NHC:

As expected, Cuba has weakened IKE pretty significantly already.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 080858
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...IKE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER CUBA...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM
...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR..AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CUBA
TODAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IKE MOVES OVER CENTRAL CUBA
TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

[jc84chill]

Fortunately for many Cubans, but unfortunately for us here along the GC, this thing not traversing the length of Cuba will allow it to be much stronger as it enters the GOM.

I'm here in Corpus and the latest model from the NHC has eye in my backyard in several days time.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5_sm2+gif/030732W_sm.gif

[svhorns]

Fortunately for many Cubans, but unfortunately for us here along the GC, this thing not traversing the length of Cuba will allow it to be much stronger as it enters the GOM.

I'm here in Corpus and the latest model from the NHC has eye in my backyard in several days time.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5_sm2+gif/030732W_sm.gif

set up a webcam and get your drink on... make sure you have a caution stick though

[jc84chill]

set up a webcam and get your drink on... make sure you have a caution stick though

haha..that would be interesting...5atexasfootball.com's live webcast of Hurricane IKE. I'd get a caution stick that our NOLA buddies would be jealous of. I should contact Prepsportswear and see if they can hook me up with a 5ATXFB.com flag.

It looks as though the track has moved slightly to the south of us in the latest update.

00
WTNT34 KNHC 090857
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS REPORTED IN HAVANA...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WARNINGS EAST OF THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...IKE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND
SOUTH COAST OF HAVANA PROVINCE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
THEN MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IKE MOVES OVER WESTERN CUBA
TODAY. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WHEN IKE
REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM. THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT CASABLANCA
HAVANA RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 75 MPH...120 KM/HR. KEY
WEST RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH...87 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 965
MB...28.50 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...22.0 N...82.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[slorch]

haha..that would be interesting...5atexasfootball.com's live webcast of Hurricane IKE. I'd get a caution stick that our NOLA buddies would be jealous of. I should contact Prepsportswear and see if they can hook me up with a 5ATXFB.com flag.


you have to go outside and wear goggles...:D

[Favpack]

I'll chip in for the chill in goggles cam. :D Seriously - I hope this thing tracks further south - hate to see any Texas city in the sights of a major.

[KT2000]

Just don't let the media catch you hijacking chips and drinks in the aftermath. You will be placed on the Axis of Evil.

[KT2000]

Models still pointing at Brownsville/SPI in the latest runs, but the official forecast holds more to the north. The storm is now jogging WNW. It will be interesting to see what the models say tomorrow morning once this thing is fully in the Gulf.

[CKE]

This is probably going to have a huge effect on football this Thursday and Friday in the SA area and south of it.

[jc84chill]

The eye is coming back now. This is already different from Gustav as the eye had trouble forming after Cuba.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 092343
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

...IKE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...HEAVY SQUALLS
CONTINUING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...145
KM...WEST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. KEY WEST HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITH RECENT GUSTS TO 54 MPH...87 KM/HR.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
COASTS OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[jc84chill]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 100236
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

...IKE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM...WEST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45
MPH...72 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 60 MPH...96 KM/HR.

THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3
FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[EagleDude73]

The cone of uncertainty appears to be a general area of the most popular models with the National Weather Center. The latest 0z UKMET model shows landfall near Matagorda. The NHC stills has Port Lavaca. The Euro 0z model comes out at 2 am. Will keep an update as much as possible as the discussion progresses. Take a look at this, it will certainly end the drought anywhere in the state.

http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_500p_3d.html

[svhorns]

interesting... don't think I've ever been in a tropical storm before... looks like its going to go right between Austin and San Antonio... New Braunfels, San Marcos, and Buda are probably going to get a ton of rain...

[DragonBand06]

HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

...IKE IS NOT IN A HURRY...STILL PRODUCING HEAVY SQUALLS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN
MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED BY
RADARS FROM KEY WEST AND CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE
84.6 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...165 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CABO SAN
ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IKE HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A
SMALL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING IKE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. DRY TORTUGAS RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF
55 MPH...89 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 70 MPH...113 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3
FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...23.3 N...84.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

[jc84chill]

Thanks Dragon...was just about to post this myself.:)

I'll catch the 4am full advisory...when it goes up.

[jc84chill]

The current track along with the "TCHP" or Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, doesn't bode well for the Texas coast..wherever this thing hits. The TCHP basically refers to the amount of warm water that the storm will be able to feed off of on along its travels. The GOM is full of warm waters and their are a couple spots called loop currents that are especially warm and typically lead to a hurricane intensifying quickly when passing over these areas.

Below is an image with the locations of these "hot spots". You can see that Gustav's final path brought it into waters that were relatively cooler than the rest of the GOM bear Louisiana. This, along with some wind shear and the storm cooling the water below it, kept the hurricane from blowing up too big.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2008/ike_path.jpg

[jc84chill]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 100847
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

...IKE STILL POUNDING WESTERN CUBA WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...200
KM...NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 465 MILES...750 KM
...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. IKE IS STILL PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER
WESTERN CUBA. THESE ARE SOME RECENT OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED THE CUBAN
METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE: CASABLANCA HAVANA A WIND GUST TO 80
MPH...129 KM/HR...PINAR DEL RIO...63 MPH...101 KM/HR AND LA PALMA
62 MPH...100 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3
FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST AND
WEST COASTS OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD
GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...23.5 N...84.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[jc84chill]

The pressure is dropping, the winds are increasing, and the eye just went through an EWRC (Eye Wall Replacement Cycle). I believe that this will mean strengthening quite rapidly later today because it will have a well defined eye, deep convection that will build around that eye, and waaaaaaaarm waters to drink.

It's important to note that this thing has slowed to a speed of 8 mph. The slower it moves across the GOM, the longer it will have to strengthen over those warm waters. This will also have a big impact on the location of landfall. Generally, the slower it moves, the more likely it will head further North of the current track This is because they are expecting a low pressure system (currently in the western US) to make it's way east and the high pressure that is currently over the south will move out. Once that happens, the storm will turn north. It all depends on when the storm and this pressure system converge.

The faster the storm moves, the better chance that it will hit the coast before the low pressure system arives, thus keeping a westerly track because of the current high pressure systems that are in place. The slower it moves, the better chance that the low pressure system beats it to the coast forces it to move more north-westerly.

We will have a much better idea by tonight.

[GoOwls]

The pressure is dropping, the winds are increasing, and the eye just went through an EWRC (Eye Wall Replacement Cycle). I believe that this will mean strengthening quite rapidly later today because it will have a well defined eye, deep convection that will build around that eye, and waaaaaaaarm waters to drink.

It's important to note that this thing has slowed to a speed of 8 mph. The slower it moves across the GOM, the longer it will have to strengthen over those warm waters. This will also have a big impact on the location of landfall. Generally, the slower it moves, the more likely it will head further North of the current track This is because they are expecting a low pressure system (currently in the western US) to make it's way east and the high pressure that is currently over the south will move out. Once that happens, the storm will turn north. It all depends on when the storm and this pressure system converge.

The faster the storm moves, the better chance that it will hit the coast before the low pressure system arives, thus keeping a westerly track because of the current high pressure systems that are in place. The slower it moves, the better chance that the low pressure system beats it to the coast forces it to move more north-westerly.

We will have a much better idea by tonight.

You do great work on your charts and analysis.

I was watching Fox late tonight and they covered the speed/warm water factors. The slow speed will really help this thing grow and the path is key.

It's projected path is toward the central Texas coast. The previous hurricanes went in in South Texas and near Beaumont. The present track is right in between the two previous tracks.....the forecaster I saw said that Ike will track over water that is relatively undisturbed and has retained more of it's heat, and hurricanes rob the water of it's heat.

He said that the fact that Ike is tracking over undisturbed water and is slowing may allow it to grow to a Cat 4.

[CoveMom]

It does now appear that Copperas Cove MIGHT, just might see the effects of Category 1 Hurricane force winds.

Better get the plants and other crap into the garage. Will watch for a few days, though.

Now we gotta wonder if it will affect OUR football game in McKinney.

[svhorns]

interesting... don't think I've ever been in a tropical storm before... looks like its going to go right between Austin and San Antonio... New Braunfels, San Marcos, and Buda are probably going to get a ton of rain...

alright scratch that.... looks like a cat. 1 hurricane eye will be coming to visit me here in the near future... the eye right now is predicted to come right through the cedar park/austin/round rock border... which happens to be exactly where I live... :ninja::ninja: I need a good place to hide

http://i15.photobucket.com/albums/a399/xmann21/operationevacuation.jpg

[CoveMom]

alright scratch that.... looks like a cat. 1 hurricane eye will be coming to visit me here in the near future... the eye right now is predicted to come right through the cedar park/austin/round rock border... which happens to be exactly where I live... :ninja::ninja: I need a good place to hide



You and me (and my kids/dog/cats) both. Where we gonna go?

Hey, I've got an idea...Let's all head to mad_fan's place! He's got beer and grills up a mean set of ribs (or so he says).

So, we'll all head that way Saturday morning after we batten down the hatches here in CenTex.

Get ready for Hurricane 5atexasfootball, mr and ms mad.....

:D

[The King]

I hope that right turn occurs later rather than sooner.

[KT2000]

The latest GFDL model brings Ike into Galveston Bay. I expect the official 4 pm update will reflect this jog up the coast. The GFDL is NHC's official track.

[svhorns]

The latest GFDL model brings Ike into Galveston Bay. I expect the official 4 pm update will reflect this jog up the coast. The GFDL is NHC's official track.

does that mean it's headed straight for Houston?? I don't know where Galveston Bay is but I'm guessing it's the body of water right to the southeast of Houston... if so thats not good at all...

[jc84chill]

The latest GFDL model brings Ike into Galveston Bay. I expect the official 4 pm update will reflect this jog up the coast. The GFDL is NHC's official track.

We shall see...looking at things the last 12 hours or so since it really started slowing down, I have had a feeling it might hit closer to Galveston than Corpus. Technically, the whole Texas coast is still in the "cone". Despite many opinions that they just do this to hype it up, they are scientists and don't care about the hype but instead what locations still have a good chance of taking a direct hit.

[KT2000]

does that mean it's headed straight for Houston?? I don't know where Galveston Bay is but I'm guessing it's the body of water right to the southeast of Houston... if so thats not good at all...

That's the one.

Other models have been more consistent with the path, such as the European UKMET, which brings it into Matagorda.

The GFDL nailed Gustav's path and is usually the most reliable model.

[svhorns]

This hurricane is hovering right over that loop current as we speak

[The King]

That's the one.

Other models have been more consistent with the path, such as the European UKMET, which brings it into Matagorda.

The GFDL nailed Gustav's path and is usually the most reliable model.

BAMS

and

BAMM

Don't look terribly inviting either.

[tayb]

Latest. Texas is going to get poured on.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_5day.gif

[Firebird]

ZOMG Everybody Panic!!!!!!!

[tayb]

ZOMG Everybody Panic!!!!!!!

You really underestimate the power of a hurricane. If that thing landfalls as a category 4 or 5 there would be tropical storm force winds extending 200 miles in every direction and it could plow as far north as Austin while still maintaining wind speeds of 95+ miles an hour. You seem to think that the only risk of injury or death lies with flooding but what about structural damage, power outages, etc. A man died in Lafayette during Gustav, which turned out to be a relatively weak storm, because a tree snapped and crushed him inside his home. What about power outages? A storm with winds that high could cause catastrophic damage to the power grid. If I had small children I wouldn't want to be there for that situation and take the risk.

[cajun]

Hurricane Ike gonna have alittle punch to it...

Be safe...

[t-long20]

ZOMG Everybody Panic!!!!!!!

Some people reacted the same to Hurricane Gustav.

[bigdaddydog]

The current track along with the "TCHP" or Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, doesn't bode well for the Texas coast..wherever this thing hits. The TCHP basically refers to the amount of warm water that the storm will be able to feed off of on along its travels. The GOM is full of warm waters and their are a couple spots called loop currents that are especially warm and typically lead to a hurricane intensifying quickly when passing over these areas.

Below is an image with the locations of these "hot spots". You can see that Gustav's final path brought it into waters that were relatively cooler than the rest of the GOM bear Louisiana. This, along with some wind shear and the storm cooling the water below it, kept the hurricane from blowing up too big.



The winds coming into Gustav from the west were definitely cool and dry and that held it down. They are saying that when the storm slows down it tends to become more intense. With the 4pm report it also looks like the tracks point more up the coast awaay from Corpus and toward Galveston/Houston.

This could get very nasty.

to echo Firebird. OMG, we're all gonna die!! :eek:

[Firebird]

You really underestimate the power of a hurricane. If that thing landfalls as a category 4 or 5 there would be tropical storm force winds extending 200 miles in every direction and it could plow as far north as Austin while still maintaining wind speeds of 95+ miles an hour. You seem to think that the only risk of injury or death lies with flooding but what about structural damage, power outages, etc. A man died in Lafayette during Gustav, which turned out to be a relatively weak storm, because a tree snapped and crushed him inside his home. What about power outages? A storm with winds that high could cause catastrophic damage to the power grid. If I had small children I wouldn't want to be there for that situation and take the risk.

Been there, done that, lived in a coastal county for 20 years of my life.;)

By the way, most of the US deaths during Gustav happened during the evac.....

[jc84chill]

Please...lets keep this for those who'd like updates. If you don't care, don't click, and better yet don't post.

[jc84chill]

For those of you who don't frequent Weather Underground, Dr. Jeff Masters' blog is a great resource for the latest weather update. He's a meteorologist, so he's not in the game of hype.

This was his latest post at 8:25pm...

Hurricane Ike is intensifying dramatically. The central pressure has dropped 11 mb in just four hours, and stood at 947 mb at 7 pm EDT. The latest Hurricane Hunter data show that the pressure is continuing to fall at a rapid pace. The winds have not caught up yet to the pressure fall, and remain at Catgeroy 2 strength. The satellite presentation of the hurricane has improved markedly, as Ike has walled off the dry air that was bothering it, and has built a solid eyewall of 9 miles diameter of very intense thunderstorms. The appearance of Ike on infrared satellite loops is similar to Hurricane Wilma during its rapid intensification phase, when Wilma became the strongest hurricane on record. Like Wilma, Ike has a very tiny "pinhole" eye, but the storm is huge in size. Ike has a long way to go to match Wilma, but I expect Ike will be at least a Category 3 hurricane by morning, and probably a Category 4.


Ike is almost as large as Katrina was, and this large wind field is already beginning to pile up a formidable storm surge. Tides are running 2-4 feet above normal along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the west coast of Florida. Tides have risen one foot above normal in Galveston already, too. The water level will continue to rise as Ike approaches Texas, and NOAA's experimental storm surge forecast (Figure 1) is calling for a 10% chance that the storm tide from Ike will reach 10-12 feet at Galveston, and 18-21 feet on the south and east sides of Houston.

Ike is likely to be a extremely dangerous major hurricane at landfall, and will likely do $10-$30 billion in damage. The chances of hundreds of people being killed in this storm is high if people do not heed evacuation orders. It is possible that Ike will make a direct hit on Galveston as a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. The potential storm surge from such a hit could be in the 15-25 foot range (Figure 2), which is capable of overwhelming the 17 foot sea wall in Galveston. I put the odds of such an event at about 5%.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1079&tstamp=200809

The NHC's official forecast track as of 7pm CDT.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5_sm2+gif/211330W_sm.gif

Current projection:
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809.gif

[lonny23]

Please...lets keep this for those who'd like updates. If you don't care, don't click, and better yet don't post.
OK, I have some bullets for you.

1. The storm is almost as big as Katrina was and much of Katrina's damage was attributed to being so large.

2. The eyewall is said to be impressive.

3. The wind shear of 10-15 knots is expected to not slow things down much.

4. The pressure has dropped quite a bit in the last few hours, but the wind speeds haven't picked up yet.

5. The movement of the storm might make it move over a cold eddy instead of the warm current eddy and that will hurt intensification efforts.

6. The track keeps moving further north, but the bottom line is this storm will affect most of Texas.

[lonny23]

For those of you who don't frequent Weather Underground, Dr. Jeff Masters' blog is a great resource for the latest weather update. He's a meteorologist, so he's not in the game of hype.

I read his blog everyday when hurricanes are in the mix.

[GoOwls]

I posted this on the other Ike thread yesterday at 8:27 PM......

I'm calling it now.....subject to change of course......

I predict 50 miles south down the coast from San Luis Pass....the southern end of Galveston Island.

I think it will ultimately behave like a hurricane and trend more north.

Updates to follow......

That call is looking better and better as we go.....;)

[jc84chill]

I posted this on the other Ike thread yesterday at 8:27 PM......

I'm calling it now.....subject to change of course......

I predict 50 miles south down the coast from San Luis Pass....the southern end of Galveston Island.

I think it will ultimately behave like a hurricane and trend more north.

Updates to follow......

That call is looking better and better as we go.....;)

Yes sir!

[Owned05]

This is going to be pretty intense.

[GoOwls]

This is going to be pretty intense.

Yep...I think so...this one is really beginning to worry me.

[Owned05]

Yep...I think so...this one is really beginning to worry me.

Ditto.

I was watching the 10 o'clock news and just about flipped out. Said theres a 15% chance it'll make landfall in Galveston, which was higher then anyother coastal city that they project to be in Ikes path.

After the news I ran to Walgreens down the street to stock up on flashlights, batteries, and water.

I am extremely worried. The west side of Houston has dodged many storms over the last few years, but I think this one has our number. Especially with the shear size of the thing.

[GoOwls]

Ditto.

I was watching the 10 o'clock news and just about flipped out. Said theres a 15% chance it'll make landfall in Galveston, which was higher then anyother coastal city that they project to be in Ikes path.

After the news I ran to Walgreens down the street to stock up on flashlights, batteries, and water.

I am extremely worried. The west side of Houston has dodged many storms over the last few years, but I think this one has our number. Especially with the shear size of the thing.

God bless ya'll and be careful and keep safe.....

[DragonBand06]

All our south-Texas neighbors are in my thoughts and prayers - I hope everyone is safe, but I am glad we'll finally be seeing some precipitation.

[svhorns]

I posted this on the other Ike thread yesterday at 8:27 PM......

I'm calling it now.....subject to change of course......

I predict 50 miles south down the coast from San Luis Pass....the southern end of Galveston Island.

I think it will ultimately behave like a hurricane and trend more north.

Updates to follow......

That call is looking better and better as we go.....;)

not bad

[DragonBand06]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...LARGE HURRICANE IKE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD
TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 645 MILES...
1040 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 305 MILES...495 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY OR ON
FRIDAY.

IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS WAS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE
APPROACHES.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...25.0 N...87.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM CDT.

[jc84chill]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 110845
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...LARGE HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD
TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST OR ABOUT 620 MILES...995
KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE
CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST
LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE...AND IT COULD INTENSIFY INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES[/B][/COLOR]...410 KM.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE
APPROACHES.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...25.2 N...87.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN

[jc84chill]

The current minimum central pressure is normal for a hurricane that is a strong Cat 3, yet it's winds are "only" 100mph. The opinion from the experts is that since this storm is such a large one in area, it's taking longer for the winds to catch up to the rapid pressure drops from yesterday.

[CoveMom]

http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/hurricane-ike-2008

This is a great graphic. My thanks to ED73 for originally posting it. I wanted to keep it on the last page for reference. Hope that's okay with everyone.

Looks like the track will now avoid the piossibility of Hurricane force winds here at my house. That being said, anyone needing a place to lay their heads down, please pm. I have space. Also dog and cats so keep allergies in mind.

I will keep all in prayers and thoughts.
CM

[Favpack]

This storm is behaving almost exactly like Rita - eerily so.

[CedarHillDad]

satellite image from 8 minutes ago...
http://i94.photobucket.com/albums/l107/CedarHillDad/untitled.jpg

[ktCarl]

The current minimum central pressure is normal for a hurricane that is a strong Cat 3, yet it's winds are "only" 100mph. The opinion from the experts is that since this storm is such a large one in area, it's taking longer for the winds to catch up to the rapid pressure drops from yesterday.

I went to that same underground weather site and got to a feature that let's you put in your zip code to see what the weather conditions will be like in your area. I put in the 77449 code and it has the worst wind conditions for Saturday at 10:00a in Katy to be 47mph?!?!?!? Are the news media people over hyping this storm? The Mayor of Houston said to expect 80mph winds but this morning Montgomery Co. wasn't even in a hurricane warning. This is getting confusing. :confused:

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=77449&hourly=1&yday=256&weekday=Saturday

[cyfallsbooster2]

I went to that same underground weather site and got to a feature that let's you put in your zip code to see what the weather conditions will be like in your area. I put in the 77449 code and it has the worst wind conditions for Saturday at 10:00a in Katy to be 47mph?!?!?!? Are the news media people over hyping this storm? The Mayor of Houston said to expect 80mph winds but this morning Montgomery Co. wasn't even in a hurricane warning. This is getting confusing. :confused:

You better tie that beer can down for this one, ktcarl! We don't want the same devastation as earlier this summer!:eek:

[ktCarl]

You better tie that beer can down for this one, ktcarl! We don't want the same devastation as earlier this summer!:eek:

I edited my post and put the link on it.

[cyfallsbooster2]

I edited my post and put the link on it.

I would think the winds would reach a little higher than that on Saturday even in Katy if this thing hits just South of us (Freeport is my guess). It is probably too early for them to know exactly where it will hit, so they are just predicting tropical storm speeds until more definitive land fall predictions are available. But, the land does knock the wind speed down pretty quickly. Biggest problem for us up here on the north and west sides of Houston will be the ground getting soaked and then the trees coming down.

[gtowndrumma]

i checked out the link and here in college station we might get gusts of 70 mph on saturday.... should be a long rainy weekend

[SV61]

I would think the winds would reach a little higher than that on Saturday even in Katy if this thing hits just South of us (Freeport is my guess). It is probably too early for them to know exactly where it will hit, so they are just predicting tropical storm speeds until more definitive land fall predictions are available. But, the land does knock the wind speed down pretty quickly. Biggest problem for us up here on the north and west sides of Houston will be the ground getting soaked and then the trees coming down.

I think you guys are gonna have some serious wind as well.

Land does knock the hurrincane down some, but as flat as it is from Houston to the water, it won't slow it down much!

Let's just hope Ike slows himself down, before Saturday morning. Let's hope Ike picks up speed as a whole, but wind speeds die down. That way, he will cruise through, knock down a few bushes, drop some rain, and go to the next town, and next state.

Kinda like a Marine on 4 day leave.

:D

[The King]

I went to that same underground weather site and got to a feature that let's you put in your zip code to see what the weather conditions will be like in your area. I put in the 77449 code and it has the worst wind conditions for Saturday at 10:00a in Katy to be 47mph?!?!?!? Are the news media people over hyping this storm? The Mayor of Houston said to expect 80mph winds but this morning Montgomery Co. wasn't even in a hurricane warning. This is getting confusing. :confused:

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=77449&hourly=1&yday=256&weekday=Saturday

Out in West Texas that would be a breeze.

[ktCarl]

This link is for Houston area Zip Codes. It shows a different story than the link I was looking at earlier.

http://houstonhidefromthewind.org/


You just place your cursor on the Zip Code.

[cyfallsbooster2]

This link is for Houston area Zip Codes. It shows a different story than the link I was looking at earlier.

http://houstonhidefromthewind.org/


You just place your cursor on the Zip Code.

The storm pulse website is showing H1 winds as far out as Seguin on Saturday with the eye just north of Houston with H3 winds. We should start feeling the effects tomorrow morning and the worst beginning early evening and going all night long. Great no sleep tomorrow night!:Censor:

[chunky79]

the storm also keeps shifting, when i checked last night it looked like the eye would hit around port arthur, two hours ago it was just west of houston, now it is farther west of houston. it's going to keep doing this until it get close, no one will really know where the eye will hit until it hits. that being said, everyone on the coastline, please be safe

[SV61]

the storm also keeps shifting, when i checked last night it looked like the eye would hit around port arthur, two hours ago it was just west of houston, now it is farther west of houston. it's going to keep doing this until it get close, no one will really know where the eye will hit until it hits. that being said, everyone on the coastline, please be safe

Port Arthur????

I saw Port O'Connor Last Night, and it keeps shifting East. Now, it's Freeport, and adjusting East by the hour.

[chunky79]

youre right, i meant port oconner. thank you. but now i am right with you on the freeport. looks like a direct hit, but it will keep shifting, so we will never know

[lonny23]

Many people now view storm surge size as a better barometer of how bad a storm is than wind speed.

A few tidbits:

1. The wind speed does not match the pressure. I'm with Chill on why. I expect it will go up.

2. The size of the storm is larger than Katrina and that won't change. Much of Katrina's damage was the size of the storm.

3. They have a system of measuring the expected damage from storm surge and Ike is currently the worst on the scale for an Atlantic Hurricane in the last 50 years.

4. They keep talking about Ike maybe having a storm surge to go over the Galveston Seawall.

5. It doesn't matter where it hits because it's so large that many people are going to get wind and rain and nobody knows who will have tornadoes.

6. The surface winds are quite a bit lower than what's in the upper levels.

7. There are higher wind speeds away from the eyewall than close to the eyewall.

8. This storm is worse right now than it seems to be. I still think it gets worse in the next few days.

9. On another note, my mom was in Lousyanna after Gustav and it was the worst week of her life. She said all that rain that kept falling everyday for like a week ruined all the crops in the north part of the state.

[cajun]

Wind picking up some here, but sunny...

[lonny23]

Wind picking up some here, but sunny...
How about the waves?

[The King]

I guess its too late to buy a houseboat. I have thought that since allison we ought to design streets to flood (we've successfully done this) and houses to float (not quiet their yet).

I'm sure their are a lot of reasons this wont work. I'm an accountant not an engineer, but this way evacuation wouldn't be as big a deal. Everybody stays home, if the water where you are gets too high you just float, and your automatically relocated to dry ground, whenever you find it.

Potential problems:

Your house must be designed like Noah's ark. No windows.
you may not like the new neighbors.

Upside:

You may already have neighbors you don't like.

[chunky79]

west side of galveston island is already picking up some high tides

[cyfallsbooster2]

Sorry to say, but it looks like Ike will be coming ashore about Freeport and going up through Katy. Katy has had a few tough couple of weeks already. Can they handle it?:cool:

[the_phoenix612]

mmmmm don't hit katy

thats right where my girlfriend's family lives :/

[jc84chill]

Well, I've stayed in Corpus with the storm seemingly headed quite a bit north of me instead of right into my backyard like a couple days ago. The surf is up as expected. I went down to the beach and checked it out earlier.

It'll be interesting to see what kind of weather we get down here.

Further north, I really hope the fact that its "only" a Cat 2 right now doesn't fool people. This is quite different from any other Cat 2 with the pressure being what it is. It will be interesting to see how it acts tonight and through the morning.

[Owned05]

mmmmm don't hit katy

thats right where my girlfriend's family lives :/

It's moving east so I'm not as worried as I was this morning. Looks like Katy may dodge another major bullet again. We'll get rain, but we're not going to the eye like I thought late last night and early this morning.

[the_phoenix612]

It's moving east so I'm not as worried as I was this morning. Looks like Katy may dodge another major bullet again. We'll get rain, but we're not going to the eye like I thought late last night and early this morning.

hurray!

[Favpack]

Latest thread is converging tightly on Galveston and I-45 - looks like it wants to stick there right now. Let's pray this thing wimps a little and stays a 2.

[chunky79]

last time i checked it would strengthen to a cat3 right when it hit. keeps heading east though

[ktCarl]

last time i checked it would strengthen to a cat3 right when it hit. keeps heading east though

Hey there Deuce.

[chunky79]

:notworthy hi

[ktCarl]

Well, I've stayed in Corpus with the storm seemingly headed quite a bit north of me instead of right into my backyard like a couple days ago. The surf is up as expected. I went down to the beach and checked it out earlier.

It'll be interesting to see what kind of weather we get down here.

Further north, I really hope the fact that its "only" a Cat 2 right now doesn't fool people. This is quite different from any other Cat 2 with the pressure being what it is. It will be interesting to see how it acts tonight and through the morning.

I heard earlier that the pressure in the eye went up 900mB. That's good news plus the eye right now looks to be heaeding East of downtown Houston. Good for Katy but not so good for the East side. Be careful.

[DragonBand06]

Ike in Action (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html)

[Owned05]

It's falling apart.

[svhorns]

It's falling apart.

Katy or Ike?

[Owned05]

Katy or Ike?

Nice..

[svhorns]

Nice..

lol.... sorry.... it was open

[yankee]

It's falling apart.

not right now it's not...its' been holding steady for a long time now.

[katyfan52]

I hope Galveston survives. A lot of history there. A lot of water coming. :(

[jc84chill]

The pressure is dropping again...official numbers will come out closer to 4

[Owned05]

The pressure is dropping again...official numbers will come out closer to 4

So whats that mean?

[jc84chill]

Here's a Galveston webcam, if anyone is interested in watching conditions there over the next 24 hours.

http://www.galveston.com/webcams/thespotvideo/frameset.html

[Sicemhorns09]

So whats that mean?

it means that wind speed could kick up, pushing the storm from a category 2 to a 3

[jc84chill]

So whats that mean?

It could be intensifying. But it did this yesterday and the winds never caught up to the pressure. We shall see at the next update.

[svhorns]

Here's a Galveston webcam, if anyone is interested in watching conditions there over the next 24 hours.

http://www.galveston.com/webcams/thespotvideo/frameset.html

I'll be on the look out for some drunkards or some live streamers.... great cam though

[svhorns]

I've found this so far... not to shabby....

http://www.livenewscameras.com/map.html

[jc84chill]

I'll be on the look out for some drunkards or some live streamers.... great cam though

Hah...our caution stick here looks to be that one branch hanging low. I can't image that caution stick will be holding on for too long tomorrow.

A lot of trucks keep speeding by.

[jc84chill]

I've found this so far... not to shabby....

http://www.livenewscameras.com/map.html

I like that..who is that in the top left?...me like :D

[jc84chill]

Winds up to 105mph...Ike is strengthening.

Official post coming soon.

[jc84chill]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 120841
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE GETS A LITTLE STRONGER...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AN PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES...585
KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 265 MILES...425 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY...LONG
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...
165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.
AN OIL PLATFORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 89 MPH...144 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF
400 FEET.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FEET...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...26.7 N...91.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[78 Spartan]

Good luck everybody.

[ktCarl]

The pressure is dropping again...official numbers will come out closer to 4

I just heard the pressure went up a few mB's. The news guys are saying it will be a Cat. 3 when the eye comes ashore but there is the possibility it doesn't climb above a Cat. 2. It's projected to go right up I-45 and then to the East of downtown Houston. We are lucky this storm is big and not as organized as storms have been in the past because this one had the possibility of coming ashore as a Cat. 4. Florida and Alabama are getting storm surge and big wave action from this storm right now. This is a very large storm.

[Favpack]

I just heard the pressure went up a few mB's. The news guys are saying it will be a Cat. 3 when the eye comes ashore but there is the possibility it doesn't climb above a Cat. 2. It's projected to go right up I-45 and then to the East of downtown Houston. We are lucky this storm is big and not as organized as storms have been in the past because this one had the possibility of coming ashore as a Cat. 4. Florida and Alabama are getting storm surge and big wave action from this storm right now. This is a very large storm.

Yeah - I don't find anything showing a shift eastwardly - all coordinates remain the same from last night. Let's pray Ike weakens a bit today somehow.

[Favpack]

www.wunderground.com just released it's 8 am maps - the threads are almost all just west of Galveston bay - heading due north up I-45.

Things are looking pretty locked in right now.

[ktCarl]

www.wunderground.com just released it's 8 am maps - the threads are almost all just west of Galveston bay - heading due north up I-45.

Things are looking pretty locked in right now.


It looks like you Lufkin folk are going to have Ike visit you too.

[EagleDude73]

Everybody is heading out I-10 to SA & I-45 to Big D. I'm getting ready to head in the direction of the storm and report for duty. Looks like I'm going to be in another storm eye. Good luck to everyone. Stay safe.

[EagleDude73]

According to KHOU TV, there is a crude oil tanker with 22 crew members off the coast of Galveston several miles out that is stranded. The Coast Guard has stated that they will not be attempting to rescue them due to the danger involved. What in God's world were they doing in the path of the eye of a 'Cane with about 2 weeks notice?

[CKE]

According to KHOU TV, there is a crude oil tanker with 22 crew members off the coast of Galveston several miles out that is stranded. The Coast Guard has stated that they will not be attempting to rescue them due to the danger involved. What in God's world were they doing in the path of the eye of a 'Cane with about 2 weeks notice?

What in gods world is the coast guard not doing helping them....stupid people or not

[KT2000]

Galveston is already flooding. They are going to have serious problems.

[twcpfan1]

www.wunderground.com just released it's 8 am maps - the threads are almost all just west of Galveston bay - heading due north up I-45.

Things are looking pretty locked in right now.

They're saying the risk of tornadoes will affect those East of 45

[EagleDude73]

Please Do Not Go To Any Hospital For Shelter! We Will Be In Lock Down As Of Noon. You may not be allowed in unless it is an emergency.

[Bobcat81]

The National Hurricane center has just advised that Galveston Island will be completely under water for the duration of this storm. They are comparing it to the 1900 storm as far strom surge.

Unbelievable.. The storm is still 250 miles away & the waves have already breached the seawall with the storm surge projected to go at least another 19 feet!

[chunky79]

geez. hope they have flood insurance

[cajun]

How do you Houston people think this will play out for you all?...Alot of flooding?

Looks nasty to me...

We got some rain and alittle wind right now...Nothing too bad yet...

Good luck to all...

[Bobcat81]

Whoa!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

[jc84chill]

Surfside already has water up near the top of their mail boxes.

There's only so much people can do to try and tell people to get out. Many are getting caught up in the fact that it's "only" a Cat 2. Unfortunately, storm surge is at Cat 4 levels. Hopefully some of the Galveston residents who were going to stay have high tailed it out of there now after seeing what has already happened.

[Bobcat81]

Surfside already has water up near the top of their mail boxes.

There's only so much people can do to try and tell people to get out. Many are getting caught up in the fact that it's "only" a Cat 2. Unfortunately, storm surge is at Cat 4 levels. Hopefully some of the Galveston residents who were going to stay have high tailed it out of there now after seeing what has already happened.

Nasty! Looks like this one could break some records.

The news media has been ordered out of the seawall area so we'll no longer get feedback as to how much the front side of the island gets inundated by this massive surge. The back side is already creeping onto the streets from the bay.

Good luck to all those that decided to try and stay. They will certainly need it!

[chhspantherfan]

I've found this so far... not to shabby....

http://www.livenewscameras.com/map.html

thank you, that is an awesome site.

this is incredible

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/ECI6.JPG

[:oshow]

anyone know how bad it'll hit the cypress area.

[lonny23]

How do you Houston people think this will play out for you all?...Alot of flooding?

Looks nasty to me...

We got some rain and alittle wind right now...Nothing too bad yet...

Good luck to all...
I think way too many people will die and Galveston Island will be mostly under deep water.

[Owned05]

I'm so pumped.

[Favpack]

Emergency shelter at Galveston Ball. I've made it safely to Dallas - light traffic on non-freeways really. 1,500 folks in the Dallas Convention Center.

Lufkin is getting inundated with late evacuees. The number has risen from 800 to probably 3,500. Luf. Middle School was opened up late. It's a mess.

[Fleeman93]

It is crazy that Houston is already seeing flooding just from what they think is tidal surge. Just think about when they start getting heavy rain.

[EagleDude73]

Emergency shelter at Galveston Ball. I've made it safely to Dallas - light traffic on non-freeways really. 1,500 folks in the Dallas Convention Center.

Lufkin is getting inundated with late evacuees. The number has risen from 800 to probably 3,500. Luf. Middle School was opened up late. It's a mess.

Thank you Lufkin! You always come through for everyone. :notworthy

[LoneRocket]

Have you seen the picture of Galveston on the front of the San Antonio Express News? Galveston might go under water.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/

[Bobcat81]

It is crazy that Houston is already seeing flooding just from what they think is tidal surge. Just think about when they start getting heavy rain.

There is going to be more flooding than most anticipate. With the wind force blowing directly UP the main drainage routes, there's going to be NOWHERE for all this oncoming rain to drain off.

It would be a different story if this thing were to come in on the east side of Galveston but i don't see that happening.

Flood damage from this thing will likely be catastrophic!

[LoneRocket]

There is going to be more flooding than most anticipate. With the wind force blowing directly UP the main drainage routes, there's going to be NOWHERE for all this oncoming rain to drain off.

It would be a different story if this thing were to come in on the east side of Galveston but i don't see that happening.

Flood damage from this thing will likely be catastrophic!

Are they going to cut off power, water and stop sewage in those areas?

[Bobcat81]

anyone know how bad it'll hit the cypress area.

projected 79 mph winds sustained with bursts of 95+ but i would think those numbers will increase as this thing strengthens...which it already has.

[Bobcat81]

As of 6:30pm, sustained winds are at 110 mph.

111 mph becomes a Cat-3

[EagleDude73]

Reports of people trapped on roofs in the Crystal Beach area. On another note, If you want to check the wind speed in your area go to KHOU's website, they have a link to put in your zip code.

[Bobcat81]

Are they going to cut off power, water and stop sewage in those areas?

From what's been reported they already have in the low areas to keep from contaminating the storage tanks. Electricity is still on in a few areas still

[EagleDude73]

Are they going to cut off power, water and stop sewage in those areas?
FEMA requires that you can't do this but THEY do anyway.

[mad_fan]

FEMA requires that you can't do this but THEY do anyway.

Less words...more pics...;)

What time is landfall predicted???
Is it me...or is this thing BIG???

[EagleDude73]

Less words...more pics...;)

What time is landfall predicted???
Is it me...or is this thing BIG???

It's big. I'm at the hospital - no pics from me. Storm Surge already went over the seawall at Galveston several hours ago. 24,000 from galveston didn't evacuate. 90,000 from evacuations areas didn't evacuate. galveston is now reporting no electricity at all. landfall somewhere after midnight.

[mad_fan]

It's big. I'm at the hospital - no pics from me. Storm Surge already went over the seawall at Galveston several hours ago. 24,000 from galveston didn't evacuate. 90,000 from evacuations areas didn't evacuate. galveston is now reporting no electricity at all. landfall somewhere after midnight.

Stats would probably prove me wrong...
But why do these things always seem to hit in the dead of night...:mad:

Godspeed to those that choose to stay...

[toonman]

It's big. I'm at the hospital - no pics from me. Storm Surge already went over the seawall at Galveston several hours ago. 24,000 from galveston didn't evacuate. 90,000 from evacuations areas didn't evacuate. galveston is now reporting no electricity at all. landfall somewhere after midnight.


Wow are you kidding us - 24,000 did not evacuate? This is going to be a huge disaster, this Ike is huge.

[EagleDude73]

KHOU is reporting that house fires have started in galveston that has jumped from house to house and now has a huge area out of control.- Jeff McShan

[Favpack]

I pray for Galveston. Not only life- but those historic homes that withstood the 1900 hurricane.