pied's Texas season prediction

[pied]

Based off the top of my head.

Florida Atlantic-95% W
at Texas-El Paso-85% W
Arkansas-75% W
Rice-95% W
at Colorado-65% W
at ou-50% W(probably less but as a Texas homer I will not predict that)
Missouri-51% W
OK State-65% W
at Texas Tech-55% W
Baylor-85% W
at Kansas-50% W
a$m-65% W

Games in the bag:
FAU, UTEP, Rice, Baylor, Arkansas

I think UTEP could give a scare similar to UCF last year and Arkansas might be tough, but they are losing a ton. I can't see us dropping any of these.

5-0 w/this crew



Tough games I expect a win, but would not be shocked w/a L:
Colorado, OK State, Tech, a$m

Probably could put tech in a different group especially playing in Lubbock, but recent history shows that we have the Raiders #. That being said a$m has takenthe last two from us, but we are playing in Austin.

4-0 is very possible, 3-1 would be disappointing and 2-2 would probably be disastrous.




Very tough games.
ou, Missouri, Kansas

ou-Don't need to say anything else. They should be very stron and right now I'd guess 4.5-6.5 favorites.
Missouri-at hme helps, but they should be very good this year and CD will be stoked sky high. Still the game is in Austin and this is Texas and Missouri.
Kansas-I have a feeling they will be down from where they were last year. Don't know why, but we'll see.

If we beat ou, going 3-0 should be expected, if not 1-2 is very possible. I don't see us losing to all three.

That puts us at 8-4 to 12-0. Mack has won at least 9 regular season games every year except his first at Texas and it's hard for me to see this year being the first.

Thoughts?

[Favpack]

9-3, another Holiday Bowl appearance and likely win.

I agree with your analysis and contend the team will not have enough offensive firepower or defensive shut-down-ability to go any higher than 9-3. 10-2 would and a BCS game would be incredible, 7-5 is not unthinkable - thus, I conclude 9-3, with a slight leaning toward 8-4 before I would say 10-2.

[Dawg Fan]

Based off the top of my head.

Florida Atlantic-95% W
at Texas-El Paso-85% W
Arkansas-75% W
Rice-95% W
at Colorado-65% W
at ou-50% W(probably less but as a Texas homer I will not predict that)
Missouri-51% W
OK State-65% W
at Texas Tech-55% W
Baylor-85% W
at Kansas-50% W
a$m-65% W

Games in the bag:
FAU, UTEP, Rice, Baylor, Arkansas

I think UTEP could give a scare similar to UCF last year and Arkansas might be tough, but they are losing a ton. I can't see us dropping any of these.

5-0 w/this crew



Tough games I expect a win, but would not be shocked w/a L:
Colorado, OK State, Tech, a$m

Probably could put tech in a different group especially playing in Lubbock, but recent history shows that we have the Raiders #. That being said a$m has takenthe last two from us, but we are playing in Austin.

4-0 is very possible, 3-1 would be disappointing and 2-2 would probably be disastrous.




Very tough games.
ou, Missouri, Kansas

ou-Don't need to say anything else. They should be very stron and right now I'd guess 4.5-6.5 favorites.
Missouri-at hme helps, but they should be very good this year and CD will be stoked sky high. Still the game is in Austin and this is Texas and Missouri.
Kansas-I have a feeling they will be down from where they were last year. Don't know why, but we'll see.

If we beat ou, going 3-0 should be expected, if not 1-2 is very possible. I don't see us losing to all three.

That puts us at 8-4 to 12-0. Mack has won at least 9 regular season games every year except his first at Texas and it's hard for me to see this year being the first.

Thoughts?

well thought out and very possible. It all comes down to injuries and catching a few breaks IMO. I would like to think that the games between Tech, A & M and Texas would all be tough and down to the wire.

[BDB]

9-3, another Holiday Bowl appearance and likely win.

I agree with your analysis and contend the team will not have enough offensive firepower or defensive shut-down-ability to go any higher than 9-3. 10-2 would and a BCS game would be incredible, 7-5 is not unthinkable - thus, I conclude 9-3, with a slight leaning toward 8-4 before I would say 10-2.

hopefully they don't end the double-digit wins this year.

i think muschamp will have the defense solid and in a frenzy this year (after watching orange & white game). hopefully texas can get a 1000 yard rusher this year (whether it's fozzy or mcgee) to settle down the offense.

i think 9-3 is worst case (which will prolly happened since i justsaid that) and undefeated implausable (but that goes along with most of the NCAA).

[HUM398]

9-3 is the worst case scenario. i don't see this defense losing more then 3 games.

[jtk1519]

Texas has gone 10-3 each of the past two seasons with the 22nd and 14th best offense (6th in scoring in '06 and 14th in '07) the past two seasons, but the defense has been ranked 22nd and 52nd (26th and 45th in scoring defense) those two seasons with the 99th and 109th pass defenses.

There's no reason to expect much of a drop off on offense. If the defense improves closer to pre-2006 levels, it will be hard for this team to lose 3 games. The unknown factors are injuries.

[Firebird]

Texas has gone 10-3 each of the past two seasons with the 22nd and 14th best offense (6th in scoring in '06 and 14th in '07) the past two seasons, but the defense has been ranked 22nd and 52nd (26th and 45th in scoring defense) those two seasons with the 99th and 109th pass defenses.

There's no reason to expect much of a drop off on offense. If the defense improves closer to pre-2006 levels, it will be hard for this team to lose 3 games. The unknown factors are injuries.

The rest of the conference is much better than it was pre-2006. UT has almost no easy games in conference. KU, MU, Col. at home, TTU, and OU are all going to be very, very tough games and all of those teams have made great strides since 2005. That's not saying that I think UT will lose them all, but it isn't beyond the realm of possibility that they drop some.

UT 2005 was one of the best teams ever, but they ran through a conference that just wasn't very good. The gauntlet is much tougher now, and UT is playing probably all of the best teams in the conference.

My predictions:

FAU
UTEP
Arkie
Rice
Colorado
OU
Mizzou
Okie Lite
Tech
Baylor
Kansas
A&M

9-3. I don't think UT escapes the Col, OU, Mizzou, Okie Lite, Tech, Kansas, A&M gauntlet with less than 3 losses, though they are certainly capable of winning them all.

[jtk1519]

The rest of the conference is much better than it was pre-2006. UT has almost no easy games in conference. KU, MU, Col. at home, TTU, and OU are all going to be very, very tough games and all of those teams have made great strides since 2005.

From Mack Brown's arrival through 2005, Texas always had a good defense. That is why the past two seasons have been such head-scratchers. We haven't seen anything like this in a long time. Pre-2006 doesn't mean just 2005. If we coach BoomMFer can get the defense to '03 or '04 levels, it will be hard for this team to lose 3 games.

[Firebird]

From Mack Brown's arrival through 2005, Texas always had a good defense. That is why the past two seasons have been such head-scratchers. We haven't seen anything like this in a long time. Pre-2006 doesn't mean just 2005. If we coach BoomMFer can get the defense to '03 or '04 levels, it will be hard for this team to lose 3 games.


Just gotta disagree with you there. I don't think it's very hard for any team to lose 3 games in the Big 12 this year. There are almost no gimmes, and of the sure-thing gimmes Texas plays exactly one. What's more, some of the tougher opponents get to play the Horns on the road. Not to say that UT won't improve, just that the rest of the conference has dramatically improved, too. 2003 or 2004 Texas would have a tough time getting through the conference with only 3 losses.

[jtk1519]

Just gotta disagree with you there. I don't think it's very hard for any team to lose 3 games in the Big 12 this year. There are almost no gimmes, and of the sure-thing gimmes Texas plays exactly one. What's more, some of the tougher opponents get to play the Horns on the road. Not to say that UT won't improve, just that the rest of the conference has dramatically improved, too. 2003 or 2004 Texas would have a tough time getting through the conference with only 3 losses.

Everybody goes on and on about the schedules during the preseason, but I just don't get it. Of all the pieces of data one could insert into a preseason prediction equation, the strength of schedule is the most unpredictable. Did anybody expect Kansas to be any good last year? What about Cincinnati or Arizona State? Did anybody expect Florida State or Miami to tank the way they did? The answer on all counts is no. Kansas, ASU and Cincy were unranked in the preseason polls last year while some had FSU as high as #8 and many had Miami in the top 25. Too much unpredictability for me to put that much stock into the quality of a schedule this early.

[Firebird]

Everybody goes on and on about the schedules during the preseason, but I just don't get it. Of all the pieces of data one could insert into a preseason prediction equation, the strength of schedule is the most unpredictable. Did anybody expect Kansas to be any good last year? What about Cincinnati or Arizona State? Did anybody expect Florida State or Miami to tank the way they did? The answer on all counts is no. Kansas, ASU and Cincy were unranked in the preseason polls last year while some had FSU as high as #8 and many had Miami in the top 25. Too much unpredictability for me to put that much stock into the quality of a schedule this early.

Then it's way to early to put any stock in anything...I'm playing the game Pied posed. If you're gonna say that there's no way of knowing how good all the other teams are gonna be, then how are you going to say anything about Texas, either? That's like wiping before you poop. You can talk about how good Texas will be but not how good the teams Texas plays might be? How can you predict a teams record preseason without taking into account the strength of the teams that team plays?

UT gets no fewer than 4 spring top 25 teams, of which all are top 20, 2 ranked ahead of them, and 3 are consensus top 10-15. They play 2 of them on the road and one at a neutral site where UT has had problems in recent years. That's a gauntlet. If you don't take that into account when you're trying to predict a season finish then you're kidding yourself.

[jtk1519]

Then it's way to early to put any stock in anything...

And that's my point. Congrats, it only took you 3 posts to realize that. It would have taken slorch at least 5.

[Firebird]

And that's my point. Congrats, it only took you 3 posts to realize that. It would have taken slorch at least 5.

Thus I am tossing your prediction of "tough to lose 3 games" straight into the crapper where it belongs.

[jtk1519]

Thus I am tossing your prediction of "tough to lose 3 games" straight into the crapper where it belongs.

What I said was very general and unspecific that doesn't really require any detailed data to support it. Quite unlike giving percentage-based predictions in May.

[Firebird]

dp

[Firebird]

What I said was very general and unspecific that doesn't really require any detailed data to support it. Quite unlike giving percentage-based predictions in May.

Sorry, but no sale. Predicting a season with fewer than three losses at any time of the year while claiming that you should not take into account the schedule is asinine.

UT doesn't get to play these games against themselves, or against a 2007 or 2006 team which they have improved relative to. That's a completely meaningless yardstick. You must look at the likely strength of the teams they are playing.

[pied]

What I said was very general and unspecific that doesn't really require any detailed data to support it. Quite unlike giving percentage-based predictions in May.


Tough to lose three games. I agree looking at thistory, buI don't know about that looking at the games.

-@ Colorado has all the makings of a trap game. Hawkins is coming into his own and we are on the road the week before the ou game.
-ou likely will be the better team. By how much is very much debatable, but they have answers at several spots we do not, namely running back at this point.
-Missouri, Chase Daniels will be sky high and we are coming off two very tough games.
-@ Tech, although we have owned the Red Raiders for much of the past decade, they are tought and I hate playing in Lubbock.
-@ Kansas, I don't buy into them like many have, but Mangino will be playing the '04 game over and over.

Those are five games that are very losable in my opinion. Going 3-2 with those is a ral possibility.

[Firebird]

Tough to lose three games. I agree looking at thistory, buI don't know about that looking at the games.

-@ Colorado has all the makings of a trap game. Hawkins is coming into his own and we are on the road the week before the ou game.
-ou likely will be the better team. By how much is very much debatable, but they have answers at several spots we do not, namely running back at this point.
-Missouri, Chase Daniels will be sky high and we are coming off two very tough games.
-@ Tech, although we have owned the Red Raiders for much of the past decade, they are tought and I hate playing in Lubbock.
-@ Kansas, I don't buy into them like many have, but Mangino will be playing the '04 game over and over.

Those are five games that are very losable in my opinion. Going 3-2 with those is a ral possibility.


NO LOOKING AT GAMES AT ALL!

[jtk1519]

Sorry, but no sale. Predicting a season with fewer than three losses at any time of the year while claiming that you should not take into account the schedule is asinine.

I didn't predict the season... that's the point. Furthermore, I never said the schedule should be taken out of the equation all together, but rather said it should be diminished in preseason relevance in relation to the value many currently place on it. You're reading comprehension is usually much better than this. What I say was that if the defense improves to where it has traditionally been under Mack, then it will be hard to lose 3 games. That's about as vague a prediction as one can give and I wouldn't consider it a prediction so much as an broad commentary. I mean, what exactly am I predicting by saying that?

[pied]

UT doesn't get to play these games against themselves...


You're right, we do not get to count the spring game as a W like a$m...

Sat, Apr 14 Maroon & White Game X College Station, Texas W 27-13 [Recap]


http://www.aggieathletics.com/teamstats.php?SID=MFB&YOS=2006

[Firebird]

You're right, we do not get to count the spring game as a W like a$m...




http://www.aggieathletics.com/teamstats.php?SID=MFB&YOS=2006

That's OK, we'll just pick one up against the sips as well.

[Firebird]

I didn't predict the season... that's the point. Furthermore, I never said the schedule should be taken out of the equation all together, but rather said it should be diminished in preseason relevance in relation to the value many currently place on it. You're reading comprehension is usually much better than this. What I say was that if the defense improves to where it has traditionally been under Mack, then it will be hard to lose 3 games. That's about as vague a prediction as one can give and I wouldn't consider it a prediction so much as an broad commentary. I mean, what exactly am I predicting by saying that?


You're predicting that if the defense improves, the Longhorns will be so good that it will be tough for them to lose 3. How do you reach that conclusion, exactly, without at least taking a glance at the likelihood you'll be playing good teams.

[jtk1519]

You're predicting that if the defense improves, the Longhorns will be so good that it will be tough for them to lose 3. How do you reach that conclusion, exactly, without at least taking a glance at the likelihood you'll be playing good teams.

Yeah, and I'm predicting that if Eva Green walks through my door naked, I'm going to pass out. So what? I picked the number 3 and said 3 games because Mack has not lost more than 3 games since '99 when he went 9-5 (and still managed to make it to the Big XII championship game... weird). I said the number 3 because history is on my side.

[KT2000]

I'd give Texas a 2 game margin for error this season. The Big 12 Championship and a BCS Bowl should be minimum targets. Texas just can't afford another breakdown. If Texas can at least get to a BCS game, they will be primed for a run at the whole thing in 2009.

[Crank_It]

I expect nothing less than the rose bowl.

that is all

[tayb]

Texas will probably win more games than they have scheduled.

[slorch]

And that's my point. Congrats, it only took you 3 posts to realize that. It would have taken slorch at least 5.

blow me.

When's the last time I messed with you?

well that's been too long...:D

[jtk1519]

blow me.

When's the last time I messed with you?

well that's been too long...:D

Settle down, grandpa.

[jtk1519]

Texas will probably win more games than they have scheduled.

Post of the week nominee.

[BDB]

Post of the week nominee.

seconded