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Firebird
05-18-2005, 02:30 PM
Reading the most storied program poll and thread made me think about this. Back in the early 1990's if you had told me or any other HS football fan that withing 15 years, not only would Permian and Plano cease to be regarded as true state powers, but they would also frequently fail to figure into the playoff race within their districts, you would have been laughed out of the building. I imagine if you had told a Brownwood fan back in the glory days that the 'Wood would go decades without a state title the same would be true.

The point is, that fallen powerhouses litter the Texas HS football landscape. I want to hear your predictions as to who will be the next fallen giant. If you post, please, give well thought out justification, this isn't a thread to hate on your rival school.

I'll be the first, and my apologies to all the Rocket fans out there, but my money is on Converse Judson, for two main reasons.

1. The emergence of Smithson Valley as an elite program. Before, the competition in 26-5a was incredible, don't get me wrong, but Judson was always the clear number one. Smithson Valley just has the feel of a team on the rise, and one with the community support and aspirations to become a dominant team on the state level. Converse Judson is going to have its hands full, and often one district just can't hold two true state power-houses. Look at 4-5a- Permian supplanted by Midland Lee, supplanted by the Abilene schools.

2. The new school . Not only will this affect enrollment and by extension depth, but when a community has two high schools the nature of things just changes. Whereas before all efforts and resources and loyalties were concentrated on the Rockets, now a new program will divide loyalties and compete for attention.

My prediction-- Judson will remain a competetive, highly regarded program, even at the state level, but the era of dominance-- when Judson is a shoo-in on pre-season top ten lists- is endangered. Barring a football miracle in the RGV, Laredo, or CC areas, Judson will still make regularly decent play-off runs, and thanks to a 4-team format they should be a relative fixture in the post-season. But the type of dominance we saw over the past few decades is just too much to ask for.

So, what assesments do ya'll have.

badger95
05-18-2005, 02:59 PM
That is a good assessment, but Smithson Valley will probably not be a factor for much longer. Canyon Lake High School will open in 2007 and will take kids only from Smithson Valley. That will cause them to go back to 4A for a few years.

I also predict that with the growth along I-35, it will not be long before there is a 5A district along that corridor with

Clemens
Steele
Hays
Lehman
San Marcos
Smithson Valley

Maybe Bastrop, who's already 5A, and then 4A schools that could see a growth spurt in that area include Del Valle, New Braunfels, and Canyon.

RedRage00
05-18-2005, 03:05 PM
Where is Lehman??

ktchamp97
05-18-2005, 03:16 PM
Good post.

All giants will fall at some point. The level of success some of these programs have experienced simply can't go on forever. People who are fans of schools at the top need to realize they can't take all that success for granted. Enjoy it while it lasts and support your team like it's your first time to the playoffs. It's human nature to get complacent as a fan of a highly successful program, but it's not fair to the current team who is busting their *** every week trying to establish their own legacy...after all, it will be their first time.

Lufkin_Class_Of_08
05-18-2005, 04:12 PM
Good post.

All giants will fall at some point. The level of success some of these programs have experienced simply can't go on forever. People who are fans of schools at the top need to realize they can't take all that success for granted. Enjoy it while it lasts and support your team like it's your first time to the playoffs. It's human nature to get complacent as a fan of a highly successful program, but it's not fair to the current team who is busting their *** every week trying to establish their own legacy...after all, it will be their first time.

That sounds like the astros...astros fans thought they would be good forever and boy 2005 was/is a wake up call: astros suck this year

RedRage00
05-18-2005, 04:14 PM
Yeah, Austin Westlake isn't as great as they used to be....and neither are our beloved Waco Lions :p

RR

PackAttack2005
05-18-2005, 05:15 PM
Do you think Katy High will eventually be depleted by all the new schools going in around them? If not, what do you think will be the counter balance in that district to keep the Katy Tiger program on top?

KT2000
05-18-2005, 05:53 PM
If Katy keeps growing at its current rate, eventually the talent pool will thin out as new schools are being built. The flip side to that is that the Katy High zones are getting new move-ins as well (along with the others), so the enrollment will not be consistently declining given Katy's proximity to the big city. KISD's goal, to my knowledge, is to have most of its high schools evened off at around 2500 enrollment ideally. Cinco is the biggest right now with about 3400. Katy has approx 3100.

In my opinion, there will always be a reason for people to move to places like Katy in range of all of the job opportunities the Houston area provides. I don't see it significantly drying up like an Odessa because of that.

The rumors are pretty rampant right now, and a lot of different things could happen in the immediate and distant future. Some are convinced the district wants Cinco Ranch to be the biggest/best in the district (and stay that way) and others don't buy into the conspiracy theories. It just depends on who you talk to.

As far as what's actually going on in the community now, it's thought Katy could lose key talent producing areas soon depending on how new schools are zoned and current schools are rezoned.

However, the core community in the immediate vicinity of Katy High School and nearby (that should always feed into Katy as long as it exists) will provide more than enough talent to produce winning teams in the medium/long run. Depth is what suffers mostly (for an established school anyway) from losing certain talent pools. Obviously, that's a key edge Katy High has had going for it during this era of winning. However, players will continue to come out for the team in droves as long as there is still a tangible tradition and excitement within the community about the program.

Change is inevitable, and Katy (like any other program) will have to adapt accordingly when the time comes.

Slim-Rob
05-18-2005, 06:12 PM
I agree with most of what you said. I don't know about SV becoming a power house, but then again, If you told Bob Malesky in 1964(0-10) that Judson would become a power house, he probably would have laughed in your face.

ktchamp97

People who are fans of schools at the top need to realize they can't take all that success for granted
I agree with that 100%.

dragonsdaddy
05-18-2005, 07:28 PM
trn, exactly what would you use as a descriptor of a powerhouse. going to the state finals 3 out of 4 years seems pretty fair to me. i'm certainly not a sv apologist, but i am definitely a respecter. they are and will be for as long as coach hill is around, a powerhouse. they need to kick the door down someday, but til they do, they are in fact a powerhouse.

DipnSpit
05-18-2005, 07:42 PM
Do you think Katy High will eventually be depleted by all the new schools going in around them? If not, what do you think will be the counter balance in that district to keep the Katy Tiger program on top?
Yes... that's all i've got to say

Xfballphenome05
05-18-2005, 08:15 PM
what r u talking about,S.V. is already a powerhouse

Texas Hammer
05-19-2005, 12:07 AM
Reading the most storied program poll and thread made me think about this. Back in the early 1990's if you had told me or any other HS football fan that withing 15 years, not only would Permian and Plano cease to be regarded as true state powers, but they would also frequently fail to figure into the playoff race within their districts, you would have been laughed out of the building. I imagine if you had told a Brownwood fan back in the glory days that the 'Wood would go decades without a state title the same would be true.

The point is, that fallen powerhouses litter the Texas HS football landscape. I want to hear your predictions as to who will be the next fallen giant. If you post, please, give well thought out justification, this isn't a thread to hate on your rival school.

I'll be the first, and my apologies to all the Rocket fans out there, but my money is on Converse Judson, for two main reasons.

1. The emergence of Smithson Valley as an elite program. Before, the competition in 26-5a was incredible, don't get me wrong, but Judson was always the clear number one. Smithson Valley just has the feel of a team on the rise, and one with the community support and aspirations to become a dominant team on the state level. Converse Judson is going to have its hands full, and often one district just can't hold two true state power-houses. Look at 4-5a- Permian supplanted by Midland Lee, supplanted by the Abilene schools.

2. The new school . Not only will this affect enrollment and by extension depth, but when a community has two high schools the nature of things just changes. Whereas before all efforts and resources and loyalties were concentrated on the Rockets, now a new program will divide loyalties and compete for attention.

My prediction-- Judson will remain a competetive, highly regarded program, even at the state level, but the era of dominance-- when Judson is a shoo-in on pre-season top ten lists- is endangered. Barring a football miracle in the RGV, Laredo, or CC areas, Judson will still make regularly decent play-off runs, and thanks to a 4-team format they should be a relative fixture in the post-season. But the type of dominance we saw over the past few decades is just too much to ask for.

So, what assesments do ya'll have.
Everything you say may be true, but I'm not ready to write off the Rockets yet.

badger95
05-19-2005, 09:17 AM
Lehman High is in Kyle and is the second high school in the Hays ISD. They opened last year and will be in district play beginning in 2006.

pack0808
05-19-2005, 09:23 AM
i laugh at some of these big city schools that cant imagine playing with an 2500 to 2800 enrollment. i think lufkin is right at 2300 again this year. longview is almost identical. you do not need 3000 plus students to be a power in 5a football.

JC73
05-19-2005, 10:56 AM
That is a good assessment, but Smithson Valley will probably not be a factor for much longer. Canyon Lake High School will open in 2007 and will take kids only from Smithson Valley. That will cause them to go back to 4A for a few years.

I also predict that with the growth along I-35, it will not be long before there is a 5A district along that corridor with

Clemens
Steele
Hays
Lehman
San Marcos
Smithson Valley

Maybe Bastrop, who's already 5A, and then 4A schools that could see a growth spurt in that area include Del Valle, New Braunfels, and Canyon.


The new school will only draw from the lake area. Most of the growth comes from the 281 bulverde area. They will not even drop to 4a. They won't miss a beat.

CoppellCowboy57
05-19-2005, 01:29 PM
Denton Ryan has been a power house over the past few years, i dont think they will be as strong as they have been.

badger95
05-19-2005, 01:46 PM
The new school will only draw from the lake area. Most of the growth comes from the 281 bulverde area. They will not even drop to 4a. They won't miss a beat.

So, like I said, it will only get kids that would have gone to Smithson Valley and not Canyon. So Smithson Valley's talent pool will not be as deep.

JC73
05-19-2005, 02:11 PM
Only two starters from last years team was from the canyon lake area and would go to the other school.

dragonsdaddy
05-19-2005, 02:18 PM
2 starters can make a difference. and next year it may be 6. i hope you can stay 5a however.

CCHS77
05-19-2005, 02:21 PM
Only two starters from last years team was from the canyon lake area and would go to the other school.


While that is interesting, how does that “speak” to where future teams will get their “talent”?

badger95
05-19-2005, 02:46 PM
Only two starters from last years team was from the canyon lake area and would go to the other school.

you're still helping me make my point.

owlfan 1
05-19-2005, 03:25 PM
I, for one, have a hard time basing success or failure on whether or not you go deep in the playoffs. I am grateful that my team is competitive each year, and that they provide me and my fellow Owl fans with wonderful entertainment and thrills regularly. Garland may only advance one or two rounds deep year to year, but the fact that, year in and year out, they are a strong, competitive team who will compete for the district title with a CHANCE to go deep is success in itself. I'd love to see them win another title; the week they get eliminated will always be a sad one for me. But not winning it all will never cause me to feel that they are a mediocre, unsuccessful team. Will I grumble and whine when they don't win? Probably. I AM, after all, a passionate fan. But, when it's all said and done, I am always proud of them; success and failure are relative.

As ktchamp wrote, going deep in the playoffs and competing for a title is a rare thing that should never be taken for granted. When the Owls went on their amazing run in '99, I tried to savor every moment of it. It would be nice to think that going to state is a birthright, but sooner or later everyone will decline.

Except for Katy and SLC... ;)

farmerfan
05-19-2005, 04:11 PM
owlfan
You are right, I watched some great Lewisville teams get beat in the 1st round or the 2nd round, for years we had a murder of a draw either getting Trinity or Duncanville to open up the playoffs, we always gave Duncanville some great games with the exception of 97, however they always seemed to get us with their speed. We should have beaten them in 2000, but let a late 1st half lead vanish on a hailmarry at the end of the half to tie the game. That said, we entered the playoffs many times with a undefeated record or 1 loss, and went home early, being in D1, that was the one setback, as we would have to face a district champion in the 1st round. I dont think you could say that we were not a successfull program based on our 1st or 2nd round exits, its just the way the bracket fell, we wound up playing some teams just as good as us early on.
It is common for people to take thing for granted, I know I did, when you win for so long you just expect it each year, not everyone will stay on top forever and the success goes in cycles. I think it will be interesting to watch Carroll over the next few years, they are a lot like the old Stphenville teams, it was known that Briles would not stay their forever, and when he left, they lost a lot of their swagger, when and if Dodge leaves, it will be interesting to see if they can remain as dominant on the offensive end of the ball as well as keep the swagge they have developed under Dodge. Im not saying they wont, I just thing it will be interesting to see if they turn out like Stephenville has since the departure of Briles.

dragonsdaddy
05-19-2005, 04:36 PM
the answer to that ? lies exactly in the lap of whoever takes the reins from dodge. as ff well knows, slc hasn't exactly been a flash in the pan. the pre-dodge coach left plenty to be desired, but ledbetter hit a grand slam his next at bat. the next selection when necessary will be from a strong list of candidates and will be just as important. until then, we'll go on basking and being fat, dumb, and happy, as my aviator brethren say.

RocketQB
05-19-2005, 10:16 PM
what r u talking about,S.V. is already a powerhouse

I wouldn't go as far as saying they are a "powerhouse". They have potential and if they continue to develop, maybe some day I will see them as such.
IMHO

lonny23
05-19-2005, 10:46 PM
I wouldn't go as far as saying they are a "powerhouse". They have potential and if they continue to develop, maybe some day I will see them as such.
IMHO
They're a powerhouse. You don't go to 3 finals in 4A and 5A the last 3 years and not be a powerhouse. The Buffalo Bills were a powerhouse and never won a title.

RocketQB
05-19-2005, 11:17 PM
They're a powerhouse. You don't go to 3 finals in 4A and 5A the last 3 years and not be a powerhouse. The Buffalo Bills were a powerhouse and never won a title.

That's your opinion. I said IN MY OPINION, they are not!

lonny23
05-19-2005, 11:22 PM
That's your opinion. I said IN MY OPINION, they are not!
What does it take to be a powerhouse? I'm a little concerned because it bothers me when Judson people want to just write off Smithson Valley. We have the titles and all the accolades, but that bunch is a good football team and can beat us this year if we don't come to play.

I talked a lot of trash last year about the Rockets and we ended up getting beat by a good football team when we weren't at our best. That loss shocked everybody, but it can happen.

RocketQB
05-19-2005, 11:32 PM
What does it take to be a powerhouse? I'm a little concerned because it bothers me when Judson people want to just write off Smithson Valley. We have the titles and all the accolades, but that bunch is a good football team and can beat us this year if we don't come to play.

I talked a lot of trash last year about the Rockets and we ended up getting beat by a good football team when we weren't at our best. That loss shocked everybody, but it can happen.

Who said anything about writing SV off? I said IMO they are not a powerhouse. People view things differently. The qualities that make a team a powerhouse to one person can be different from qualities another person look for in a powerhouse team. Yeah Judson have titles and accolades and any team, not just SV can beat us on any given day if we don't show up with our "A" game. Just like they can be beat!

The Rockets had an excellent season last year and got beat by a team who played a better game that day. I would not necessarily say we weren't at our best, but that we made some bad choices in plays that day. You win some, you lose some.

Texas Hammer
05-20-2005, 12:53 AM
Who said anything about writing SV off? I said IMO they are not a powerhouse. People view things differently. The qualities that make a team a powerhouse to one person can be different from qualities another person look for in a powerhouse team. Yeah Judson have titles and accolades and any team, not just SV can beat us on any given day if we don't show up with our "A" game. Just like they can be beat!

The Rockets had an excellent season last year and got beat by a team who played a better game that day. I would not necessarily say we weren't at our best, but that we made some bad choices in plays that day. You win some, you lose some.
Most people think Coach Rackley panicked, but I just view it as some plays that didn't work out. It was probably better that I couldn't go to the game, anyway.

JC73
05-20-2005, 08:51 AM
[QUOTE=CCHS77]While that is interesting, how does that “speak” to where future teams will get their “talent”?[/QUOT

I'm not trying to get in an big argument here with all you Judson worshipers. But at Smithson Valley most of the better players come from the Bulverde 281 area. It has been that way and will continue to be that way. Yes some good players have come from the lake area. But all you have to do is look at the two middle schools. Spring Branch(bulverde) has about three times as many football players than SVMS(students from the lake area that will go to the new school.) The point I am trying to make is that the new high school will not affect Smithson Valley like everybody is thinks it will. The enrollment at the new school is not projected to drop SV to 4a.

dragonsdaddy
05-20-2005, 01:49 PM
how does such a thing like unequal talent occur? is there some demographics or what that might cause the imbalance?

JC73
05-20-2005, 02:11 PM
I think demographics comes into play here. It's weird how the boundaries are going to be drawn. Most of the growth at SV is the 281 area. But the new school is all way across the district. Canyon high school is almost closer to SV then the new school will be. Sv won't feel it much. The school population will remain around 2000.

badger95
05-20-2005, 02:51 PM
I think demographics comes into play here. It's weird how the boundaries are going to be drawn. Most of the growth at SV is the 281 area. But the new school is all way across the district. Canyon high school is almost closer to SV then the new school will be. Sv won't feel it much. The school population will remain around 2000.

It will be called the Larry Hill boundary.

eagleike
05-22-2005, 09:10 AM
lonny23:

Who was shocked that Westfield beat the Rockets?

MojoRaiderPower
05-22-2005, 09:47 AM
In my opinion, there will always be a reason for people to move to places like Katy in range of all of the job opportunities the Houston area provides. I don't see it significantly drying up like an Odessa because of that.


No numbers have changed out here!!! in the past 15 years, all the ratios of students are the same. if you are talking about the oil boom in the 80's, what is going on now!!!

Xfballphenome05
05-22-2005, 12:38 PM
it is true when u say that spring branch has more players,but traditionally the offensive line comes from smithson valley,so it might have more affect on us than u think.and what litle players we did come up with seem to be standouts,andrew sendejo,mykel kovar,wade haynes,connor smith,who all started last year,dont say all the better players come from bulverde..dont answer back,dont want this turning in to a middle school football board.