Current Status of Grapevine's Playoff Possibilities

[DR Raider]

After some stops, starts, and additional telephone calls, we think we have this correct:

Assuming the expected occurs this week in 5-5A (DR beats Haltom, CH beats Keller, KFR beats Richland, and GV loses to SLC), the following possibilities exist for the last weekend of the 5-5A district competition (when DR plays KFR and GV plays CH). In 5-5A, the first tiebreaker is head to head, the second tiebreaker is positive point differential (maximum 14 points per game in order to prevent running up the score) between the teams tied, and the third tiebreaker is record against other district teams going from best to worst.

Playoff Scenarios:

1. DR beats KFR
GV beats CH

DR (6-1) makes the D2 playoffs as the #1 seed
GV (5-2) makes the D2 playoffs as the #2 seed*

*SLC goes to the D1 playoffs and the dream matchup with Euless Trinity is a reality.

2. DR beats KFR
CH beats GV

DR (6-1) makes the D2 playoffs as the #2 seed.

CH, GV, and KFR all tie for the last playoff spot with 4-3 district records. Because none of the teams beat the other two, the second tiebreaker - positive point differential - is used. Because GV beat KFR by 7, and KFR beat CH by 10, then

a. CH goes to the playoffs if it beats GV by more than 10 points.
b. KFR goes to the playoffs if CH beats GV by less than 10 points.
c. GV is out because it has only 7 points and KFR already has 10 points.*

*Because GV is out, SLC goes to the D2 playoffs as the #1 seed.

3. KFR beats DR
GV beats CH

DR, KFR, and GB all tie with 5-2 district records. Because none of the teams beat the other two, the second tiebreaker - positive point differential - is used. DR has the maximum 14 points (from its win over GV). GV has only 7 points (from its win over KFR). KFR will have 1-14 points from its hypothetical win over DR. As such, then

a. DR is in the D2 playoffs since the worst it could do would be a tie with KFR at 14 points.
b. KFR is in the D1 playoffs if it beats DR by 8 or more points (since GV only has 7 points).
c. GV is in the D2 playoffs if KFR beats DR by 6 or less points (since GV has 7 points).*

*Again, if GV makes the playoffs, SLC goes to the D1 playoffs. If KFR makes the playoffs, SLC goes to the D2 playoffs as the #1 seed.

4. KFR beats DR
CH beats GV

DR with a 5-2 district record makes the D2 playoffs as the #2 seed.
KFR with a 5-2 district record makes the D1 playoffs.
SLC goes to the D2 playoffs as the #1 seed.

Conclusion:
For all of the SLC v. ET enthusiasts, Grapevine makes the playoffs ONLY IF

a. GV beats CH
AND
b. DR beats KFR or loses by 6 or less points.

That's it for now. If anyone spots inaccuracies, please let us know.

[RAB-07]

maybe an admin will make this a sticky?

[dragons08]

this stuff is confusing, but i get it, good work DR Raider!

[KT2000]

Good breakdown. This is a very fun part of the season. Seeing everything start to sort itself out. However, it some cases it gets much more confusing before making sense.

I think Grapevine is going to make it with DR and SLC, but the other scenarios are certainly possible.

[dragons08]

Good breakdown. This is a very fun part of the season. Seeing everything start to sort itself out. However, it some cases it gets much more confusing before making sense.

I think Grapevine is going to make it with DR and SLC, but the other scenarios are certainly possible.
thats what i think, but this a sport, anything can happen!

[SLC13]

Nice Work, DR Raider!! Clearest explanation that I've seen....... :)

[toonman]

Excellent job DR Raider. Thank you for explaining the 'tiebreak' procedure. The CH vs GV should be a great game - I will look for the result with much interest.

[RidgePride]

I do think there is a possibility that CHHS beats GV.
According to your breakdown, if they beat them by less than 10 then Ridge is in.

Ridge will be D1 - (no one wants to see that massacre including myself).
SLC will be DIV2

[gritty52]

Very good job on the playoff possibilities. Alot of us Trinity folks will be at the CHHS-GV game. Don't know who to pull for, should know by then though. The reason we will be there is we play MAC on Thursday night and I'm sure there will be other folks at that game. HAKA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :D :D

[DR Raider]

Glad that the post has been beneficial - it will be updated next week if the unexpected occurs.

Having seen DR play both GV and CH, that game between the two should be high scoring and close. Will note that CH qb Christian Ponder was injured in the fourth quarter of the game against DR. He had to leave the field and did not return. Not sure what his status will be.

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

Ok, I have Nov. 10th off because of veterans day. If SLC plays Trinity where will the game be played and what time do you think it will happen?

[sportsfan79]

The game would be Saturday @ Texas Stadium as part of a 5-5A / 6-5A tripleheader. I would bet on it being the late afternoon or night game.

[DR Raider]

Last year the D2 games were played first and the D1 game in the evening.

If Grapevine and DR do make the playoffs, then the likely matchups would be:

D2:
DR v. South Grand Prairie
Grapevine v. IMAC

D1:
SLC v. Euless Trinity

Traffic considerations would probably dictate having the SLC-ET game last. Having said that, there would probably be alot of irate SLC/ET fans if the fans of the previous two games decided to stay in their seats. Although it would make the other games somewhat anticlimatic, it might make more sense to get the big crowd in early at the first game.

[The Great Evaluator]

A good source from Trinity told me either the 1:00 or 4:00 would be preferred.
7:00 was not a good option because typically 1 or both of the 1st 2 games would go long and the game probably would not start until 8:00. Personally i think an 8:00 game would be great but i guess we'l have to wait and see.

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

I hope its a Friday game because Memorial would play on that Saturday at Pasadena Memorial or Stallworth stadium.

[sportsfan79]

Unless something has changed from last year, all three 5-5A vs. 6-5A games will be Saturday @ Texas Stadium.

[Eagle Hombre]

Last year the D2 games were played first and the D1 game in the evening.

If Grapevine and DR do make the playoffs, then the likely matchups would be:

D2:
DR v. South Grand Prairie
Grapevine v. IMAC

D1:
SLC v. Euless Trinity

Traffic considerations would probably dictate having the SLC-ET game last. Having said that, there would probably be alot of irate SLC/ET fans if the fans of the previous two games decided to stay in their seats. Although it would make the other games somewhat anticlimatic, it might make more sense to get the big crowd in early at the first game.

After reading and trying to digest all of the possible scenarios what do you think the likelyhood of the above happening?

[DR Raider]

Both the DR v. KFR and the GV v. CH games should be very close.

Assuming DR beats Haltom this week (not a given), DR will have qualified for the playoffs. The danger, then, is that DR will be looking ahead when it plays KFR. Coach Florence's history, however, is to take such a game very seriously since he wants to build momentum with his starters playing well and winning. He will not rest his starters in that circumstance. Therefore, and because DR has been playing very good defense the last several weeks (even in the SLC game), the guess here is that DR beats KFR.

As for as GV v. CH goes, both teams beat Richland and Haltom by about the same margin. Also, both teams lost to DR by about the same margin. The only difference is that GV beat KFR by 7 and CH lost to KFR by 10. Both teams have excellent offenses and average defenses. Having now seen both teams play, the guess here is that GV's defense gets more stops than the CH defense gets. Therefore, the thought is that GV wins in a high scoring game.

As an aside, and call us masochists, but most DR fans want SLC to go D2 so there would be the possibility of rematch just like last year.

WRT to the first round playoff games, it appears 6-6A is set (unless SGP upsets ET this week or IMAC upsets ET next week). Since IMAC beat SGP, IMAC is the #1 seed in D2 and would play GV, and, SGP is the #2 seed and would play DR. By all accounts, the DR v. SGP game would be a defensive struggle.

[gritty52]

I heard today that due to crowd size(25-35 thousand) for the ET-SLC GAME there's no way to have a triple header. What I heard from a good source is one of the Div2 games Friday night at Texas Stadium and the other somewhere else. Then Saturday night ET-SLC. :D :D

[farmerfan]

I heard today that due to crowd size(25-35 thousand) for the ET-SLC GAME there's no way to have a triple header. What I heard from a good source is one of the Div2 games Friday night at Texas Stadium and the other somewhere else. Then Saturday night ET-SLC. :D :D


You could have a triple header at Tx Stadium with a large crowd. Carroll and Abilene were the 1:00 game last year and over 35,000 attended, there were two games after and it worked out alright. The best way to do this would be make it the 1:00 game, that is the only way it would be fair to the fan bases of Carroll and Trinity as they would be able to get their desired seats.

[dragonfootballfan]

I heard today that due to crowd size(25-35 thousand) for the ET-SLC GAME there's no way to have a triple header. What I heard from a good source is one of the Div2 games Friday night at Texas Stadium and the other somewhere else. Then Saturday night ET-SLC. :D :D
The crowd size will not get that high because it is in the first round. It may get to 25,000 but I doubt it. There are many teams that are going to be playing that day and there will be college football on TV as well.

[farmerfan]

The crowd size will not get that high because it is in the first round. It may get to 25,000 but I doubt it. There are many teams that are going to be playing that day and there will be college football on TV as well.


The crowd will be at least 25,000 and most likely over 30,000, remember a lot of teams will be playing on Thursday and Friday nights, leaving saturday open for a lot of fans, then there will be plenty of HS football fans who teams did not make the playoffs and will very interested in this football game, plus the only texas college game worth watching that day would be A&M and OU and why watch those two teams play when you could watch Trinity and Carroll?
If this game were to take place, it would be the most hyped football game in the metroplex since HP/Plano in 1980. This game will bring in people from all over the metroplex as well as the state.

[dragonsdaddy]

the texas stadium mogul has said he would predict over 40k for a game such as this. he's been running the place forever, so he may be right. i'd guess 35 myself.

[DR Raider]

The support that SLC fans provide the Dragons is nothing short of amazing. Anyone who has been to Dragon Stadium on a Friday night and experienced the atmosphere - tailgating, face painting, touch football, young and old kids everywhere, Dragon Green all over, etc. - knows that Dragon football is a total community event. Likely that SLC would bring between 15,000-20,000 supporters. Add another 10,000-15,000 for ET and a third group of 5,000 - 10,000 interested, unaffiliated spectators and you have your 30,000 - 40,000 crowd. Better make it the first game.

Looking at the projected brackets, the winner of this hypothetical first round game would very likely make it to the state championship game - not much competition (possibly The Woodlands or Westlake) along the way.

[BigFoot]

The support that SLC fans provide the Dragons is nothing short of amazing. Anyone who has been to Dragon Stadium on a Friday night and experienced the atmosphere - tailgating, face painting, touch football, etc. - knows that Dragon football is a total community event. Likely that SLC would bring between 15,000-20,000 supporters. Add another 10,000-15,000 for ET and a third group of 5,000 - 10,000 interested, unaffiliated spectators and you have your 30,000 - 40,000 crowd. Better make it the first game.

Looking at the projected brackets, the winner of this hypothetical first round game would very likely make it to the state championship game - not much in the way of competition (possibly the Woodlands or Westlake) along the way.

In the early 80's Trinity and Bell both advance deep into the playoffs and the crowd size for the face off was 33,000 just from two HEB teams. Many Bell people and I think other district rivals in 5 and 6 5A fans will show up. I would not be surprised if the count approached 40,000 plus.

[gritty52]

Would it be up to the coaches for the place and time ? Or would the braintrust at the UIL make the decision? :D

[DR Raider]

The guesss here - and its only a guess - is that the coaches and Texas Stadium make the decision.