Denton Ryan @ Colleyville Heritage

[Octoberfest]

A critical game to help determine the #2 & #3 teams out of 5-5A. Some comparisons of both teams' games against SLC.

Denton Ryan - Offense

10 First Downs
55 Yards Rushing
110 Yards Passing

CHHS - Offense

24 First Downs
101 Yards Rushing
319 Yards Passing

Denton Ryan - Defense

Allowed 20 First Downs
Allowed 65 Yards Rushing
Allowed 342 Yards Passing

CHHS - Defense

Allowed 23 First Downs
Alllowed 356 Yards Rushing
Allowed 285 Yards Passing


CHHS had a better offensive performance against SLC but DR had a much better defensive performance, especially against the run. Should be interesting.

[toonman]

I think Colleyville wins this one, but both go to the play-offs.

[dragonsdaddy]

i think dr's defense will be able to slow down the ponderific offense enough to win. i expect a relatively low scvoring game, in 20's.

[DragonFan]

This is a must win for Colleyville. If they lose they will have 3 district loses with a game againt Grapevine still to play. Denton Ryan has 1 district loss and is in the drivers seat for the #2 spot. If Colleyville can win and then beat Grapevine then they would be the #3 spot and in the playoffs as the Div 1 Rep.

[dragonsdaddy]

this game won't mean a thing unless there's a 3 way tie, because the first tie-breaker is head to head. they would still have to beat gvine either way.
if fridge gets into the picture and all are 4-3, then the 2nd t-b pops up. i assume it's positive points, but have yet to find out for sure.

[Octoberfest]

D-Daddy is correct. If CHHS wins out, they claim the 2nd spot. If CHHS loses to DR but wins the last two, they are the #3 team. The key game is vs Grapevine. That is the "Must Win".

[BigFoot]

this game won't mean a thing unless there's a 3 way tie, because the first tie-breaker is head to head. they would still have to beat gvine either way.
if fridge gets into the picture and all are 4-3, then the 2nd t-b pops up. i assume it's positive points, but have yet to find out for sure.


If CH beats Ryan and win the rest it could mean something because Grapevine lost to Ryan. So Grapevine plays SLC and loses...then loses to CH
head to head would be 3 loses each ...DR goes to playoffs because of head to head against Grapevine.

[RidgePride]

If CH beats Ryan and win the rest it could mean something because Grapevine lost to Ryan. So Grapevine plays SLC and loses...then loses to CH
head to head would be 3 loses each ...DR goes to playoffs because of head to head against Grapevine.
Ridge would be in the mix as well with 3 losses provided they lose to DR

[SLC fan]

Colleyville isn't guaranteed a playoff spot by defeating Grapevine if they lose to Denton Ryan. There would likely be a 3-way tie between Colleyville, Grapevine, and Fossil Ridge at 4-3. And if Ridge were to beat Denton Ryan, Colleyville and Grapevine would both miss the playoffs, assuming that Ridge beats both Richland and Haltom. Now if Ridge were to lose to Haltom AND Denton Ryan, THEN Colleyville would be assured of a playoff spot by beating Grapevine since they would win the head-to-head tiebreaker against Grapevine.

Colleyville losing to DR would increase the chances of Carroll going D1 because it would create two tiebreak scenarios in which both DR and Grapevine could make the playoffs. One would be a 3-way tie between Grapevine, Colleyville, and Ridge at 4-3 for the last playoff spot. Another would be a 3-way tie between Grapevine, DR, and Ridge for two playoff spots at 5-2. If Colleyville beats DR, realistically Grapevine has to beat Colleyville and DR has to beat Ridge for Carroll to go D1.

[dragonfly]

I think Heritage wins this game 28-21.

[DR Raider]

Unless the District Executive Committee for 5-5A has promulgated different rules (which I do not believe it has), the procedures governing ties is found at www.uil.utexas.edu/policy/constitution/index.html (not sure how to make this address into a link).

Go to Section 1203 for the rule - covers both three way ties and four way ties.

[Octoberfest]

Unless the District Executive Committee for 5-5A has promulgated different rules (which I do not believe it has), the procedures governing ties is found at www.uil.utexas.edu/policy/constitution/index.html (not sure how to make this address into a link).

Go to Section 1203 for the rule - covers both three way ties and four way ties.

Do we have to meet at an undisclosed location to have the coin flip?! :rolleyes:

[SLC fan]

By the way, those of you who want Carroll to go D1 might want to root FOR Fossil Ridge this week, not against them. It all depends on how confident you are that Denton Ryan will beat Fossil Ridge in week 10. If you think that DR is a lock to beat Ridge, then you should root for Ridge to beat Haltom this week because then Grapevine could lose to Colleyville and still have a shot to make the playoffs in a 3-way tie with Ridge and Colleyville. If Ridge were to lose to both Haltom and DR, then Colleyville would win a head-to-head tiebreaker against Grapevine.

However, if you think that Ridge will beat DR, then you will want to root for Haltom. The reason being, if Ridge loses to Haltom, Grapevine gets in with a win regardless of the outcome of the DR/FR game. And if Grapevine were to lose to Colleyville they could still get in via a 3-way tiebreaker with Colleyville and Ridge.

So fans of an SLC/Trinity game should definitely want Colleyville to lose but may actually want Fossil Ridge to win.

[DR Raider]

Do we have to meet at an undisclosed location to have the coin flip?! :rolleyes:

Because four teams are competing for two playoff spots, I think the possibility of a coin flip is very high.

Seems like Permian, Midland Lee, and Abilene Cooper met behind closed doors.

[SLC13]

Because four teams are competing for two playoff spots, I think the possibility of a coin flip is very high.

Seems like Permian, Midland Lee, and Abilene Cooper met behind closed doors.If you're referring to the scene in FNL, they did televise the coin flip in the movie (remember scene of QB's mom watching TV and reacting to the flip). Don't know if that was just staged for movie or if they really televised it. :)

[The Lone Ranger]

Because four teams are competing for two playoff spots, I think the possibility of a coin flip is very high.

Seems like Permian, Midland Lee, and Abilene Cooper met behind closed doors.

It was actually Midland High, not Cooper.

[The Lone Ranger]

If Grapevine beats Heritage, then they are in the playoffs regardless of what Heritage does against Ryan.

If Heritage loses to Ryan but beats Grapevine, then there is a 3-way tie with GHS, CHHHS, and FRHS. If they use points difference, then FR is at +3, Heritage is at -7, and Grapevine is at +10. So Heritage would need a 13 point win to make the playoffs.

[Sloth]

As a pure fan with no ties I want GHS in. But they measure only postive points in the games between the 3 teams. So currently FRHS is at 10, GHS is at 7, and CHHS has 0. So if there is a tie between the 3 w/ CHHS beating GHS then GHS is out. And CHHS has to beat GHS by 11 or FRHS is in. So trust me SLC is rooting like everything for CHHS to beat GHS. Heard strait from a few SLC coaches they really do not want to play Trinity.

[RyanRaiderDad]

Heard strait from a few SLC coaches they really do not want to play Trinity.

Interesting!!?? I feel a whole new thread coming on!!

[SLC fan]

Actually, Lone Ranger, Grapevine could beat Colleyville and still miss out if Ridge beats Denton Ryan and there's a 3-way tie at 5-2. I think we had this discussion before.

The Colleyville/DR game is relevant because if Colleyville and Ridge both beat DR, then DR will miss the playoffs and Carroll will go D2. Yes, Grapevine would still make the playoffs with a win over Colleyville, but DR would not. If DR beats Colleyville, then both Grapevine and DR could still conceivably make the playoffs even if Ridge beats DR since there would be a 3-way tie at 5-2.

But if you assume that DR beating Fossil Ridge in a given, then the Colleyville/DR game is only really important in that Grapevine could lose to Colleyville and still make the playoffs in a 3-way tie IF Colleyville loses to DR and Ridge also finishes at 4-3.

[BigFoot]

Colleyville isn't guaranteed a playoff spot by defeating Grapevine if they lose to Denton Ryan. There would likely be a 3-way tie between Colleyville, Grapevine, and Fossil Ridge at 4-3. And if Ridge were to beat Denton Ryan, Colleyville and Grapevine would both miss the playoffs, assuming that Ridge beats both Richland and Haltom. Now if Ridge were to lose to Haltom AND Denton Ryan, THEN Colleyville would be assured of a playoff spot by beating Grapevine since they would win the head-to-head tiebreaker against Grapevine.

Colleyville losing to DR would increase the chances of Carroll going D1 because it would create two tiebreak scenarios in which both DR and Grapevine could make the playoffs. One would be a 3-way tie between Grapevine, Colleyville, and Ridge at 4-3 for the last playoff spot. Another would be a 3-way tie between Grapevine, DR, and Ridge for two playoff spots at 5-2. If Colleyville beats DR, realistically Grapevine has to beat Colleyville and DR has to beat Ridge for Carroll to go D1.


This district has so many possibilities right now it is hard to predict. It depends on which team shows up each night (the good or the not so good one) on who will win. This is a horse race till the end.

[BigFoot]

this game won't mean a thing unless there's a 3 way tie, because the first tie-breaker is head to head. they would still have to beat gvine either way.
if fridge gets into the picture and all are 4-3, then the 2nd t-b pops up. i assume it's positive points, but have yet to find out for sure.

Then after head to head is point differential.

[Fleeman93]

Interesting!!?? I feel a whole new thread coming on!!

I would guess that SLC won't admit that they don't want Trinity, but I sure bet they wish they didn't have to face Trinity in RD1.

[BigFoot]

As a pure fan with no ties I want GHS in. But they measure only postive points in the games between the 3 teams. So currently FRHS is at 10, GHS is at 7, and CHHS has 0. So if there is a tie between the 3 w/ CHHS beating GHS then GHS is out. And CHHS has to beat GHS by 11 or FRHS is in. So trust me SLC is rooting like everything for CHHS to beat GHS. Heard strait from a few SLC coaches they really do not want to play Trinity.

Not to say who would win, but I really can't blame either coaching staff with a great team not wanting to play possibly the other best team first. Just good thinking on either coaches part. Truly it would be sooo sad for either of them to leave in the first round. And in that scenerio, one would go.

[SLC fan]

So is it positive points or point differential? I've never even heard of positive points, but if it's as Sloth described it, then Grapevine absolutely has to win against CHHS. If it's point differential, then they could lose by a small margin and win the tiebreaker. Also, if point differential is used, then a 3-way tie with FR and DR at 5-2 would do Grapevine no good since they have a -9 differential and Ridge would be no worse than -6 if they beat DR. But if it's positive points, then both Grapevine and DR would get in if Ridge beats DR by 7 or less.

Knowing the tiebreak rules would certainly help clear things up.

[dragonfly]

I almost feel better playing Trinity than I do Lufkin. Lufkin and Longview are great teams whom I think could beat Trinity. I would most rather play Longview, then Trinity, and followed by Lufkin.

[DR Raider]

So is it positive points or point differential? I've never even heard of positive points, but if it's as Sloth described it, then Grapevine absolutely has to win against CHHS. If it's point differential, then they could lose by a small margin and win the tiebreaker. Also, if point differential is used, then a 3-way tie with FR and DR at 5-2 would do Grapevine no good since they have a -9 differential and Ridge would be no worse than -6 if they beat DR. But if it's positive points, then both Grapevine and DR would get in if Ridge beats DR by 7 or less.

Knowing the tiebreak rules would certainly help clear things up.

Unless the 5-5A District Executive Committee has changed the UIL rules, points do not factor into the tiebreaker. Rather, in a three way tie, if one team has beaten the other two, then that team is in and the other two flip for the remaining slot. If no team has beaten the other two, its by two coin flips - on first flip, odd man is in. The remaining two then conduct a second flip. See Section 1203 h of the UIL Contest Rules. The web link is in one of the messages above.

[dragons08]

i have come up with a scenario.....we let it all play out!! all this talk and the diffrent scenarious are getting confusing!!

[TrojanHorse03]

Dragonfly:

I almost feel better playing Trinity than I do Lufkin. Lufkin and Longview are great teams whom I think could beat Trinity. I would most rather play Longview, then Trinity, and followed by Lufkin.

:rolleyes:

[SLC13]

I would guess that SLC won't admit that they don't want Trinity, but I sure bet they wish they didn't have to face Trinity in RD1.With Trinity's playoff history the last few years, it's more likely the other way around.

[dragonfly]

Dragonfly:

I almost feel better playing Trinity than I do Lufkin. Lufkin and Longview are great teams whom I think could beat Trinity. I would most rather play Longview, then Trinity, and followed by Lufkin.

:rolleyes:

Do you think this year's Trinity team could handle Lufkin and Longview pretty easily?

[Sloth]

Yes Trinity could handle Lufkin or Longview fairly easily. ET win by 21pts.

[Fleeman93]

With Trinity's playoff history the last few years, it's more likely the other way around.

What does recent playoff history have to do with this Trinity TEAM?

[Sloth]

Unless the 5-5A District Executive Committee has changed the UIL rules, points do not factor into the tiebreaker. Rather, in a three way tie, if one team has beaten the other two, then that team is in and the other two flip for the remaining slot. If no team has beaten the other two, its by two coin flips - on first flip, odd man is in. The remaining two then conduct a second flip. See Section 1203 h of the UIL Contest Rules. The web link is in one of the messages above.
The districts have the right to determine their own tie breaking system.

[DR Raider]

The districts have the right to determine their own tie breaking system.
Right. But its my understanding the 5-5A DEC has not made any changes. Do you have information that it has written its own rules?

[dragonsdaddy]

the tie breakers are determined before the season begins, so every coach knows what to expect.

[Sloth]

Right. But its my understanding the 5-5A DEC has not made any changes. Do you have information that it has written its own rules?
I know a few of the coaches in this district and yes I have asked them directly what the tie breaker is for a 3 way tie and it is positive pts between the teams involved.

[Sakatha]

I find it ridiculous to think that SLC would be 'scared' to play Trinity.

SLC hasn't acted afraid to play anyone in the last 3 years. What kind of ridiculous statement is that?

I am in the camp that believes it sad that one of the two will be knocked out after game #11. That one needs to be played MUCH later in December.

~DnM

[dentonRYAN]

Colleyville Heritage over Denton Ryan...... ummmm, no

[DR Raider]

I know a few of the coaches in this district and yes I have asked them directly what the tie breaker is for a 3 way tie and it is positive pts between the teams involved.

Just got a clarification from the Denton ISD. The tiebreaker system in place for 5-5A is as follows:

#1. Head To Head

If one of the three teams tied beat the other two, that team makes the playoffs.

#2. Point Differential Between the Teams (with a cap of 14 for each game).

This tiebreaker is implemented by each team totaling the point differential it had with the teams involved in the tiebreaker. There is, however, a cap of 14 points to prevent excessive scoring. For example, DR beat Grapevine 41-25. The point differential for DR is +14. Because the point differential only deals in "positive points," there is NO deduction for GV. The two teams with the highest point totals make the playoffs.

#3. District Record Against District Teams From Highest Finish To Lowest Finish.

For example, each team's record against SLC would be examined. If one of the teams involved in the tiebreaker had beaten SLC, then that team would make the playoffs. If none of the teams had beaten SLC, then the records against the next highest finish would be examined.

#4. Coin Flip



It seems the game between DR and CH is the key. If CH beats DR, then it is unlikely any tiebreaker will be necessary. Rather, all four teams will be 4-2 going into the last week of the season (assuming everyone beats Haltom and Richland, and, GV loses to SLC) and the winners of those games (DR v. KFR/GV v. CH) will make the playoffs.

If DR beats CH, then there are numerous scenarios where a tiebreaker would be necessary.

[Octoberfest]

It seems the game between DR and CH is the key. If CH beats DR, then it is unlikely any tiebreaker will be necessary. Rather, all four teams will be 4-2 going into the last week of the season (assuming everyone beats Haltom and Richland, and, GV loses to SLC) and the winners of those games (DR v. KFR/GV v. CH) will make the playoffs.

If DR beats CH, then there are numerous scenarios where a tiebreaker would be necessary.

November 4th will be a nailbiter for 5-5A.

[BigFoot]

Unless the 5-5A District Executive Committee has changed the UIL rules, points do not factor into the tiebreaker. Rather, in a three way tie, if one team has beaten the other two, then that team is in and the other two flip for the remaining slot. If no team has beaten the other two, its by two coin flips - on first flip, odd man is in. The remaining two then conduct a second flip. See Section 1203 h of the UIL Contest Rules. The web link is in one of the messages above.

I went to the site and I believe this is a change from previous years. Points did matter. It appears to me it is coin toss. I feel sorry for the odd man out after getting there to wait for a coin to fall.

[BigFoot]

Just got a clarification from the Denton ISD. The tiebreaker system in place for 5-5A is as follows:

#1. Head To Head

If one of the three teams tied beat the other two, that team makes the playoffs.

#2. Point Differential Between the Teams (with a cap of 14 for each game).

This tiebreaker is implemented by each team totaling the point differential it had with the teams involved in the tiebreaker. There is, however, a cap of 14 points to prevent excessive scoring. For example, DR beat Grapevine 41-25. The point differential for DR is +14 and for GV -14. The two teams with the highest point totals make the playoffs.




Thanks for the info.

#3. District Record Against District Teams From Highest Finish To Lowest Finish.

For example, each team's record against SLC would be examined. If one of the teams involved in the tiebreaker had beaten SLC, then that team would make the playoffs. If none of the teams had beaten SLC, then the records against the next highest finish would be examined.

#4. Coin Flip



It seems the game between DR and CH is the key. If CH beats DR, then it is unlikely any tiebreaker will be necessary. Rather, all four teams will be 4-2 going into the last week of the season (assuming everyone beats Haltom and Richland, and, GV loses to SLC) and the winners of those games (DR v. KFR/GV v. CH) will make the playoffs.

If DR beats CH, then there are numerous scenarios where a tiebreaker would be necessary.

Thanks for the information. Still a mystery for a few weeks who will go.

[Sloth]

Just got a clarification from the Denton ISD. The tiebreaker system in place for 5-5A is as follows:

#1. Head To Head

If one of the three teams tied beat the other two, that team makes the playoffs.

#2. Point Differential Between the Teams (with a cap of 14 for each game).

This tiebreaker is implemented by each team totaling the point differential it had with the teams involved in the tiebreaker. There is, however, a cap of 14 points to prevent excessive scoring. For example, DR beat Grapevine 41-25. The point differential for DR is +14 and for GV -14. The two teams with the highest point totals make the playoffs.

#3. District Record Against District Teams From Highest Finish To Lowest Finish.

For example, each team's record against SLC would be examined. If one of the teams involved in the tiebreaker had beaten SLC, then that team would make the playoffs. If none of the teams had beaten SLC, then the records against the next highest finish would be examined.

#4. Coin Flip



It seems the game between DR and CH is the key. If CH beats DR, then it is unlikely any tiebreaker will be necessary. Rather, all four teams will be 4-2 going into the last week of the season (assuming everyone beats Haltom and Richland, and, GV loses to SLC) and the winners of those games (DR v. KFR/GV v. CH) will make the playoffs.

If DR beats CH, then there are numerous scenarios where a tiebreaker would be necessary.
For the most part it is correct just that you do not get the negative pts on a loss or it is double jeaporady to the team that loses. Thus it is only positive pts. I have spoken to 3 head coaches in the district and this is what they tell me.

Also CHHS/DR game is not as critical as the last game for everybody involved. Because no matter who wins it does not eliminate anyone from the playoff hunt. Assuming everybody plays to form w/ DR beating CHHS and CHHS beating Keller then the outcome of FR/DR and GV/CHHS makes for the district.

[DR Raider]

For the most part it is correct just that you do not get the negative pts on a loss or it is double jeaporady to the team that loses. Thus it is only positive pts. I have spoken to 3 head coaches in the district and this is what they tell me.

Also CHHS/DR game is not as critical as the last game for everybody involved. Because no matter who wins it does not eliminate anyone from the playoff hunt. Assuming everybody plays to form w/ DR beating CHHS and CHHS beating Keller then the outcome of FR/DR and GV/CHHS makes for the district.

I wondered about both adding to the winner and subtracting from the loser. The explanation I received was that both positive and negtive points were part of the formula. However, I have placed another call into the athletic department to make sure I understood the explanation correctly.

The DR v. CH game is important in the sense that if CH wins, it is very unlikely that a tiebreaker will be necessary. If DR wins, then a tiebreaker is quite likely.

Also, if DR beats CH, then DR is guaranteed at least a tie for the playoff spot (assuming it beats Haltom). Coach Florence was quoted in the Denton paper as stating a win over CH almost guarantees a playoff spot for DR. His analysis must be based upon the point totals thus far.

[SLC fan]

Why would they use positive points over point differential? It doesn't make any sense to me. A team that loses by 35 to one team and beats the other team by 7 would get in over a team that loses by 1 and wins by 6. Counting all losses as being equal is just silly by my way of thinking. Hopefully DR Raider's source is right.

[DR Raider]

As I understand it, "positive points" means the winning team adds the point differential to its total. However, there is no deduction of the point differential from the losing team's total. So, in the DR 41, GV 25 example, DR adds 14 (14 instead of 16 due to the cap) to its total, but GV does not subtract 14.

Again, the Denton ISD explanation given to me earlier (as I understood it) would have required GV to subtract the 14 from its total. Being checked out as we speak.

[Eagle Hombre]

Because four teams are competing for two playoff spots, I think the possibility of a coin flip is very high.

Seems like Permian, Midland Lee, and Abilene Cooper met behind closed doors.

Move fiction - It was actually Midland Lee, Permian & Midland that met at a truck stop on I-20

[SLC fan]

Either way, it looks like Denton Ryan is guaranteed a playoff berth if they win their next two games -- even if they get blown out by Fossil Ridge. Their point differential, at worst, will be zero. Grapevine's is -7. If positive points is used, they'll be at +14. Grapevine is +7.

[DR Raider]

Denton ISD confirmed that Sloth was correct - only "positive points" used in the second tiebreaker, i.e., the winner adds the point differential to its total but the loser does NOT subtract the differential. The above message will be edited to correct the misstatement about using negative points.

Final: DR 28, CH 14

Playoff Scenarios
Assuming all teams beat Haltom and Richland, and, GV loses to SLC, the following possibilities exist for the last weekend of district play (DR v. KFR and GV v. CH). Remember that DR beat GV and CH by the max 14, GV beat KFR by 7 and KFR beat CH by 10:

1. DR over KFR
GV over CH

DR (6-1) (#1 seed) and GV (5-2) make the playoffs

2. DR over KFR
CH over GV

DR (6-1) makes the playoffs and is the #1 seed.
CH, GV, and KFR all tie for last playoff spot with 4-3 district records. Point differential tiebreaker will determine which team goes to the playoffs. Because earlier GV beat KFR by 7, and, KFR beat CH by 10,
a. CH is in if it beats GV by 11 or more points
b. KFR is in if CH beats GV by 10 or less points
c. GV is out no matter what the margin of CH's victory.

3. KFR over DR
GV over CH

DR, KFR, and GV all tie with 5-2 district records. Point differential tiebreaker will break the tie as follows:
a. DR is in because it has as of tonight 14 points (from its victory over GV), more than GV (+7 points from its victory over KFR) can accumulate or as many as KFR can accumulate even after next week.
b. KFR is in if it beats DR by 8 or more points.
c. GV is in only if KFR wins by less than 7 points.

4. KFR over DR
CH over GV

DR and KFR are in with 5-2 district records. KFR is the #1 seed.

Conclusion:
1. DR is in the playoffs (unless it loses to Haltom).
2. The only way GV makes the playoffs is if it beats CH AND DR either beats KFR or loses by less than 7 points to KFR.
3. Chances of a SLC v. ET game in the first round not as likely as originally thought.

[RidgePride]

Conclusion:
1. DR is in the playoffs (unless it loses to Haltom).
2. The only way GV makes the playoffs is if it beats CH AND DR either beats KFR or loses by less than 11 points AND GV beats CH by at least 4 points more than KFR beat DR.
3. Chances of a SLC v. ET game in the first round not as likely as originally thought.
Actually The first round match up of SLC and ET is very likely.
The only way it does not happen is if Ridge makes the playoffs - Then Ridge will play Trinity.

Ridge is still a long shot at the playoffs.
DR will be favored over Ridge and GV will be favored over Heritage.
Grapevine controls its own destiny. Beat Heritage and they are in.
Even if they lose to Heritage, Ridge still needs to beat DR by 12 or more (which is unlikely).

[dragonsdaddy]

you aren't considering that c-h also controls their destiny. a win over gvine puts them in and that is the most likely scenario. gvine plays a defenseless game and ponder needs lots of defense to stop him. gvine can prove us all wrong too.

[Sakatha]

This isn't a shot @ Ridge, but the chances of them beating DR are slim. This is really about whether or not CH can down Grapevine.

~DnM

[dragonbuck]

Actually The first round match up of SLC and ET is very likely.
The only way it does not happen is if Ridge makes the playoffs - Then Ridge will play Trinity.

Ridge is still a long shot at the playoffs.
DR will be favored over Ridge and GV will be favored over Heritage.
Grapevine controls its own destiny. Beat Heritage and they are in.
Even if they lose to Heritage, Ridge still needs to beat DR by 12 or more (which is unlikely).


If CH or Fridge make the playoffs, then SLC goes D2.

[DR Raider]

Actually The first round match up of SLC and ET is very likely.
The only way it does not happen is if Ridge makes the playoffs - Then Ridge will play Trinity.

Ridge is still a long shot at the playoffs.
DR will be favored over Ridge and GV will be favored over Heritage.
Grapevine controls its own destiny. Beat Heritage and they are in.
Even if they lose to Heritage, Ridge still needs to beat DR by 12 or more (which is unlikely).

Hmmm...my analysis says GV does not control its own destiny - even if GV beats CH, then DR must ALSO beat KFR or lose by less than 11 AND GV beat CH by more than 4. Did you have a different analysis?

[dragonbuck]

From what I know, DR, you are correct. Should make for an exciting last week.

[DR Raider]

Here is my analysis (modifies the above):

If GV beats CH, GV finishes 5-2 in district. If KFR beats DR, both DR and KFR finish 5-2. Since no team beat the other two, the point differential tiebreaker is used. DR is in because it has the maximum +14 from its victory over GV, GV has +7 from its victory over KFR, and KFR has a maximum of +14 if it beats DR. So, KFR is in if it beats DR by 8 or more points.

Agreed?

[Favpack]

Thanks for all the input on this -- but, man, the outcome appears more confusing with each passing post.

What are the odds, right now of SLC going D1 or D2? I think that's a number many outsiders would like to see -- not to minimize the concern for these respective schools getting in the dance.

[SLC fan]

Agreed, DR Raider. Assuming that the tiebreaker information is correct, Grapevine does not control its own destinty, and they're eliminated if they lose to Heritage. Grapevine needs to win and have DR win or lose by 7 or less.

[RidgePride]

Hmmm...my analysis says GV does not control its own destiny - even if GV beats CH, then DR must ALSO beat KFR or lose by less than 11 AND GV beat CH by more than 4. Did you have a different analysis?
Well Well then I stand corrected.

I am a Ridge fan... Just not a believer at this point.

Ridge is the ultimate choke artist.

Two interceptions thrown for touchdowns against GV including Grapevine's game winner.

[SLC fan]

Or is it 6 or less? If Ridge beats DR by exactly 7, then they and Grapevine will have the same point total. Does it then go back to head-to-head? If so, Grapevine's in.

[Favpack]

So, the key match-up is Grapevine and Heritage -- I think it's safe to assume DR wins. DD gives the edge to Heritage over GV. I'll go out on a limb and say neither of these teams is too hot - it's just that the game controls SLC's PO destiny :eek:

[SLC fan]

I'd like to clarify my previous comment about Grapevine not controlling its own destiny. That's assuming that SLC beats Grapevine. Technically, Grapevine can control their own destinty by winning out -- it's just very, very unlikely that they beat SLC.

And if Keller were to upset Heritage, Grapevine actually could lose and still make the playoffs. But that's also very unlikely.

Basically, just go by DR Raider said, because any upsets next week are highly improbable.

[The Lone Ranger]

Let's all assume that Ryan and Carroll will win out, so Carroll is in first and Ryan is in 2nd.

Let's also assume that Ridge beats Richland.

So that means that Ridge finishes at 4-3.

If Heritage loses to Keller, then they cannot make the playoffs. If they beat Keller as they should, they'll go in to the Grapevine game at 3-3. Grapevine will go in at 4-2.

So if Grapevine beats Heritage, then they'd be 5-2 and would make the playoffs as the Division I representative.

If Heritage beats Grapevine, then there'd be a 3-way tie for 3rd.

Grapevine has +7 and Ridge has +10. So Heritage would have to win by 11. If Heritage wins by less, then FR would make the playoffs and Carroll would go DII. (I'm assuming that if CH wins by 10, then Ridge would get in on the head-to-head result).

If Heritage loses to Keller but beats Grapevine, then Heritage would be 3-4, Grapevine 4-3, and Ridge 4-3. So Grapvine would make the playoffs on the head-to-head result.

If Ridge beats Ryan, then Ridge and Ryan would both be 5-2. Grapevine would need to beat Heritage to be 5-2 also. Ryan is at +14, Grapevine at +7, and Ridge 0. So if Ridge beats Ryan, then Grapevine must beat Heritage by more then 7 to make the playoffs.

Basically, if Grapevine beats Heritage by at least 7, then they make the playoffs no matter what. So for Carroll to go DII, then they should hope for a Heritage victory.

[drgnbkr]

You guys are giving me a headache...Carroll will be ready for the playoffs..whoever it is..

[SLC fan]

I don't follow the logic of your last scenario. The margin of victory for Grapevine against Heritage seems irrelevant to me. If there's a 3-way tie at 5-2 between DR, Grapevine, and Ridge, only the positive point totals in the games between those three teams would matter.

Maybe I'm missing something. Now that I re-read DR Raider's earlier post, he says something similar about Grapevine's margin of victory over Heritage. I don't see how that figures in, though.

[DR Raider]

Let's all assume that Ryan and Carroll will win out, so Carroll is in first and Ryan is in 2nd.

Let's also assume that Ridge beats Richland.

So that means that Ridge finishes at 4-3.

If Heritage loses to Keller, then they cannot make the playoffs. If they beat Keller as they should, they'll go in to the Grapevine game at 3-3. Grapevine will go in at 4-2.

So if Grapevine beats Heritage, then they'd be 5-2 and would make the playoffs as the Division I representative.

If Heritage beats Grapevine, then there'd be a 3-way tie for 3rd.

Grapevine has +7 and Ridge has +10. So Heritage would have to win by 11. If Heritage wins by less, then FR would make the playoffs and Carroll would go DII. (I'm assuming that if CH wins by 10, then Ridge would get in on the head-to-head result).

If Heritage loses to Keller but beats Grapevine, then Heritage would be 3-4, Grapevine 4-3, and Ridge 4-3. So Grapvine would make the playoffs on the head-to-head result.

If Ridge beats Ryan, then Ridge and Ryan would both be 5-2. Grapevine would need to beat Heritage to be 5-2 also. Ryan is at +14, Grapevine at +7, and Ridge 0. So if Ridge beats Ryan, then Grapevine must beat Heritage by more then 7 to make the playoffs.

Basically, if Grapevine beats Heritage by at least 7, then they make the playoffs no matter what. So for Carroll to go DII, then they should hope for a Heritage victory.

First, if GV gets in, it goes in as a DII rep sending SLC to DI.

Second, if the tiebreaker is between DR, GV, and KFR, GV's point differential over CH is irrelevant. You only count the point differentials between the teams involved in the tiebreaker. So, if DR, GV, and KFR all tie at 5-2, GV is in only if KFR beat DR by less than 7.

Third, GV gets in if
a. GV beats CH AND DR beats KFR
b. GV beats CH AND KFR beats DR by less than 7.

That is, GV does NOT control its own destiny - it needs help from DR (beat KFR) or KFR (beat DR but by less than 7).

With respect to the question of what happens when the point differential tiebreaker is used and two teams have the same highest point total, my assumption is that you then look head to head. Alternatively, you would go to the third tiebreaker - record against district opponents starting with the highest (SLC). I'll have to check on which procedure is the correct one.