Cujo
10-15-2005, 07:15 AM
To start, let me make some clarifications. If you read my post about John Tyler last week, I said that the JT team I saw against Mesquite was overall the most dominate they have been in at least 5 years when they went to State. I also said that was probably the most dominate passing performance John Tyler has EVER had in a game.... I at least know this to be a fact for the last 12 years, and probably since 1990 since an Allen Wilson team hardly passes.
That was last week however. This week, JT was almost the EXACT same team they were for the first 5 games of the season, meaning they have a very mediocre offense and one of the best defenses in the state. The reasons that JT’s overwhelming performance last week vs. Mesquite was apparently a fluke may include:
1) Mesquite is a horrible team with a horrible defense and/or they decided to take their Bye a week early
2) John Tyler utilized their Bye week to study film in detail, thereby knowing exactly what to call against Mesquite’s defense
3) QB Kerry Maddox’s ankle was 100% healthy
I would bet the latter 2 of those are probably the most true.
So for this week, I decided to write down every play that happened in the game, so as to know exactly how good JT is or isn’t. What I found was, out of 12 possessions by JT, they went 3 and out 7 times (despite what the Tyler Morning Telegraph says). I think this is because Maddox is being relied too heavily upon to move the offense. He tried to establish a running game early, but with his injured ankle, that occurred right before the half last week, he had a somewhat limited mobility. RB Molina, who has replaced Hunter, is an adequate back, but he doesn’t have the cutting ability or speed to be able to create his own plays. With Hunter out, the running game has fallen squarely on Maddox’s shoulders, but, again, with his injured ankle, JT doesn’t have much of a running game. Before the game ending/time consuming drive, Maddox had 67 yds. rushing on 13 attempts while Molina went 9 for 42 yds. Thus, the inability for JT to threaten on the ground allowed Horn to completely shut down the passing game – Maddox went 4 for 15 with 1 INT for 68 yds, with 45 coming on one completion.
Defensively, John Tyler showed why they’re 6-1 and a threat to win the district championship. They held a Mesquite Horn team averaging 29.3 pts per game, 222 yds/game rushing, and 127 yds/game passing to 6 pts, 50 yds rushing on 31 attempts and 145 yds passing on 22 attempts with 70 of those yds coming on one throw. Mon Williams, the leading rusher in 12-5A and all of East Texas, who was averaging 195 yds/game and 6.13 yds/carry, was held to just 17 yds on 21 attempts. The only negative to this defense is that they are very prone to giving up a big play. They gave up a 90 yd run against NMHS, a 70 yd pass against Horn, and let Kilgore complete a long pass to drive 60 yds in 30 secs. If JT can refrain from allowing those, they are extremely tough for a team to move the ball on, much less score.
So, to make a very long post short(er), JT is the 2nd best team in a very average district, but only because they have a defense equal to or slightly better then that of Longview. My earlier assessment that JT is a second tier team in the state, equal to the likes of Dallas Carter, is true on the condition that JT is able to establish a running game and therefore allows JT to throw the ball at will, otherwise, JT is probably just a little better then Tyler Lee. If a team is able to shut down Maddox completely, by means of a good secondary and lots of blitzing, then they have a chance to win.
As far as the rest of the regular season, I see the next 3 games getting progressively tougher:
@ Lee – I expect this game to be on par with the game against Horn. A good back, in Williams, that will probably be shut down, with the game probably being decided by big plays and/or turnovers. I know Lee will be fighting for their playoff life, and this will be a very hard fought and close game (like those of 1998 and 2000), however, I believe JT’s defense will be too much for Lee to overcome, if things continue as they have.
vs. Rockwall – I have no idea. They seem to perform very well in big games, and if they receive the win from Horn that is currently being rumored, they would could be fighting for a tie for the district championship (if JT goes on to beat Longview).
@ Longview – This should be the game of the week in Texas and will probably be the toughest matchup LV has yet faced. I think McGee will be hard pressed to get 100 yds in the game (unless he breaks a couple of long runs), but he’ll probably avg 3-4 yds/carry. I think the key will be how well LV’s defense contains Maddox. If JT is able to establish a passing game, and doesn’t turn the ball over, then this should be as close as the LV/Rockwall game.
I dunno why I have this feeling, but I think JT will probably lose either the Rockwall or Longview game, but not both.
That was last week however. This week, JT was almost the EXACT same team they were for the first 5 games of the season, meaning they have a very mediocre offense and one of the best defenses in the state. The reasons that JT’s overwhelming performance last week vs. Mesquite was apparently a fluke may include:
1) Mesquite is a horrible team with a horrible defense and/or they decided to take their Bye a week early
2) John Tyler utilized their Bye week to study film in detail, thereby knowing exactly what to call against Mesquite’s defense
3) QB Kerry Maddox’s ankle was 100% healthy
I would bet the latter 2 of those are probably the most true.
So for this week, I decided to write down every play that happened in the game, so as to know exactly how good JT is or isn’t. What I found was, out of 12 possessions by JT, they went 3 and out 7 times (despite what the Tyler Morning Telegraph says). I think this is because Maddox is being relied too heavily upon to move the offense. He tried to establish a running game early, but with his injured ankle, that occurred right before the half last week, he had a somewhat limited mobility. RB Molina, who has replaced Hunter, is an adequate back, but he doesn’t have the cutting ability or speed to be able to create his own plays. With Hunter out, the running game has fallen squarely on Maddox’s shoulders, but, again, with his injured ankle, JT doesn’t have much of a running game. Before the game ending/time consuming drive, Maddox had 67 yds. rushing on 13 attempts while Molina went 9 for 42 yds. Thus, the inability for JT to threaten on the ground allowed Horn to completely shut down the passing game – Maddox went 4 for 15 with 1 INT for 68 yds, with 45 coming on one completion.
Defensively, John Tyler showed why they’re 6-1 and a threat to win the district championship. They held a Mesquite Horn team averaging 29.3 pts per game, 222 yds/game rushing, and 127 yds/game passing to 6 pts, 50 yds rushing on 31 attempts and 145 yds passing on 22 attempts with 70 of those yds coming on one throw. Mon Williams, the leading rusher in 12-5A and all of East Texas, who was averaging 195 yds/game and 6.13 yds/carry, was held to just 17 yds on 21 attempts. The only negative to this defense is that they are very prone to giving up a big play. They gave up a 90 yd run against NMHS, a 70 yd pass against Horn, and let Kilgore complete a long pass to drive 60 yds in 30 secs. If JT can refrain from allowing those, they are extremely tough for a team to move the ball on, much less score.
So, to make a very long post short(er), JT is the 2nd best team in a very average district, but only because they have a defense equal to or slightly better then that of Longview. My earlier assessment that JT is a second tier team in the state, equal to the likes of Dallas Carter, is true on the condition that JT is able to establish a running game and therefore allows JT to throw the ball at will, otherwise, JT is probably just a little better then Tyler Lee. If a team is able to shut down Maddox completely, by means of a good secondary and lots of blitzing, then they have a chance to win.
As far as the rest of the regular season, I see the next 3 games getting progressively tougher:
@ Lee – I expect this game to be on par with the game against Horn. A good back, in Williams, that will probably be shut down, with the game probably being decided by big plays and/or turnovers. I know Lee will be fighting for their playoff life, and this will be a very hard fought and close game (like those of 1998 and 2000), however, I believe JT’s defense will be too much for Lee to overcome, if things continue as they have.
vs. Rockwall – I have no idea. They seem to perform very well in big games, and if they receive the win from Horn that is currently being rumored, they would could be fighting for a tie for the district championship (if JT goes on to beat Longview).
@ Longview – This should be the game of the week in Texas and will probably be the toughest matchup LV has yet faced. I think McGee will be hard pressed to get 100 yds in the game (unless he breaks a couple of long runs), but he’ll probably avg 3-4 yds/carry. I think the key will be how well LV’s defense contains Maddox. If JT is able to establish a passing game, and doesn’t turn the ball over, then this should be as close as the LV/Rockwall game.
I dunno why I have this feeling, but I think JT will probably lose either the Rockwall or Longview game, but not both.