My analysis of my Final 56 teams

[lonny23]

As some of you know, I have 56 teams left in the Thanks for Participating thread and somebody asked for darkhorses and I have my doubts about some teams that are still left. Rating wise, here are the best teams I've eliminated:

M Lee 176.76
D Ryan 176.36
Coppell 175.73
DeSoto 174.10
P East 173.43
EP Franklin 171.99
Allen 170.86
Permian 170.02

T Lee 179.91
K Forest 172.61
R Berkner 177.47
S Garland 173.32
A&M Con 172.92
N Garland 172.57
L Highlands 171.62
N Mesquite 171.02
Mesquite 170.27

H Memorial 176.94
LaPorte 174.36
FB Kempner 172.53
P Dobie 172.02
FB Austin 170.93
Deer Park 170.78

L Nixon 176.00
SA Churchill 173.74
LaJoya 172.05
SA Marshall 170.37

My next post will be how I feel about the last 56 teams. Some of these previous 27 teams could get back in the race.

[Fleeman93]

You haven't eliminated Judson yet?

:)

[lonny23]

You haven't eliminated Judson yet?

:)
No, they have the resume to stay. I'm too tired to post my Final 56 analysis! :D

[Fleeman93]

I was just giving you a hard time anyway.

[mad_fan]

No, they have the resume to stay. I'm too tired to post my Final 56 analysis! :D


Too tired? It's only noon! :p

[lonny23]

Too tired? It's only noon! :p
It's 11:43 P.M. and I've been up since 4 something A.M.

I said I was too tired, but I never left, so maybe I'll post it after all! :D

[lonny23]

I'm not looking at the playoff brackets and only giving a general feel for teams. I'll update this before the playoffs. If it's not here, I'll say it in another thread.

Region 1
Amarillo will probably be eliminated at some point. A possible dark horse for a few rounds, but probable 2nd round exit.

Abilene is going to win by losing. Midland beats them and the Eagles catch a break if Trinity goes D1. They keep winning, but they're going to lose this week and to a better team in the playoffs.

Midland is the best team in 3-5A. They'll give SLC a good run for their money in the 3rd round. This is a darkhorse title team nobody is talking about.

Mansfield Summit could win a few rounds, but I bet they're out by Round 2.

North Crowley hasn't played anybody. I don't have anything to say they'll do great in the playoffs, but they did it before and could possibly get on a decent playoff roll for a few rounds. I don't see a long run, though.

Southlake Carroll hasn't played anybody in their class or been challenged. They're a title contender, but not a shoo-in.

Euless Trinity is the same as SLC. No comp and blowing them out.

Irving MacArthur is fool's gold. They're good enough to win games, but only because they haven't played anybody better than them yet. Trinity will show they can't get out of Region 1 alive.

South Grande Prairie is a darkhorse. They're on an upswing and consistently beat the spread. They'll give Trinity a good game.

Arlington needs a little more oomph. They're on an upswing like SGP, but not as much of one. I don't see an extended run.

Flower Mound is not on my hot list. They'll do OK, but not make along run.

Plano is a team to watch out for. They could make a run to state.

[mad_fan]

It's 11:43 P.M. and I've been up since 4 something A.M.

I said I was too tired, but I never left, so maybe I'll post it after all! :D


I can hardly wait to see where Madison falls out, er, in your analysis. :D

[lonny23]

Region 2 analysis:

Carter will disappoint their fans again. They struggled too much this year with the better teams. Early exit city.

Garland is not on my hot list. Probably out in Round 1.

Rowlett started shaky, but has played well in the last 2. I'll watch some more, but guess they won't make long run right now.

Longview is a title contender.

John Tyler has a hope to be a darkhorse with games like last week.

Rockwall is probably just waiting to be eliminated by Longview.

Copperas Cove can win a title. They have the goods.

Lufkin is a title contender again.

Woodlands played NS good and has a chance. I don't think they have it to win the title, though.

Leander is a darkhorse. They aren't consistent enough to be a favorite to win very much.

Pflugerville has been getting better. Watch out for these guys.

Westlake hsan't won me over, yet.

Hays Consolidated probably won't last on my list.

Region 3 and Region 4 later on.

[lonny23]

I can hardly wait to see where Madison falls out, er, in your analysis. :D
This time I'm leaving and I'll do that when I come back to work.

[lonny23]

This time I'm leaving and I'll do that when I come back to work.
Forget it, I'll just suffer.

[lonny23]

Region 3:

Cy Creek will be eliminated at some point. They're in a weak region, but I don't see David in them.

Cy Fair might as well be Cy Creek.

Strake Jesuit has done good, but not sold me yet. Katy should do a good number on them.

Katy is taking care of business. They can get on a title roll.

FB Marshall has had no comp. They played well in some games and not as good as expected in others. I'll take the odds and say they won't be title contenders.

H Madison had 1 bad game, I'm betting that's how they'll play in November and exit early.

H Lamar is a team I'm watching just because of their scores. They're a darkhorse for me.

B West Brook is doing what they need to do, but isn't someone I can forecast right now. Maybe a darkhorse.

Humble will be a day late and a dollar short. A better team will beat them.

Westfield is just biding their time until the playoffs. They're good.

GPNS might be getting that title feeling back. Watch out for these guys.

G Ball will probably not stay among the 56. Early exit.

Pearland has done good in some games. Nothing right now to say they'll contend for state.

[CoveFan05]

As some of you know, I have 56 teams left in the Thanks for Participating thread and somebody asked for darkhorses and I have my doubts about some teams that are still left. Rating wise, here are the best teams I've eliminated:

M Lee 176.76
D Ryan 176.36
Coppell 175.73
DeSoto 174.10
P East 173.43
EP Franklin 171.99
Allen 170.86
Permian 170.02

T Lee 179.91
K Forest 172.61
R Berkner 177.47
S Garland 173.32
A&M Con 172.92
N Garland 172.57
L Highlands 171.62
N Mesquite 171.02
Mesquite 170.27

H Memorial 176.94
LaPorte 174.36
FB Kempner 172.53
P Dobie 172.02
FB Austin 170.93
Deer Park 170.78

L Nixon 176.00
SA Churchill 173.74
LaJoya 172.05
SA Marshall 170.37

My next post will be how I feel about the last 56 teams. Some of these previous 27 teams could get back in the race.


You have AMC over Copperas Cove. Showing no love to the 7th ranked team in the state

[TWHPA]

You will be removing Klein Forest this week because they play Lufkin Friday and The Woodlands (not on your list) beat them last Friday.

[Purple Haze]

Lonny, I am not sure what is in the air over there in Central Asia but you better stop breathing it!! Wear a gas mask or something so that you can come back to earth! Geez some of your thinking is so far off base! Oh well, your just having fun anyway. Hey, since you are in the USAF, are we paying you to come up with this stuff???? :eek: :rolleyes:

[ktchamp97]

Lonny, I am not sure what is in the air over there in Central Asia but you better stop breathing it!! Wear a gas mask or something so that you can come back to earth! Geez some of your thinking is so far off base! Oh well, your just having fun anyway. Hey, since you are in the USAF, are we paying you to come up with this stuff???? :eek: :rolleyes:

You have AMC over Copperas Cove. Showing no love to the 7th ranked team in the state

I think ya'll are misinterpreting the initial post...those listed are the best teams that he's already eliminated...those aren't the final 56.

[tigersdad09]

Strake Jesuit has done good, but not sold me yet. Katy should do a good number on them.

unless Katy and SJ both go D-2..and its doubtful SJ will make it to the Regional final..they wont have to play Katy thanks to "RITA"-gate...ie..their principal and the alief principals voting not to make up the games canceled dute to "Rita"....they will dodge Katy this year.....how convenient....

[TWHPA]

You"re right KT

[lonny23]

You have AMC over Copperas Cove. Showing no love to the 7th ranked team in the state
No, those are the teams I've eliminated. I said A&M is one of the best teams that I don't see doing well in the playoffs.

[lonny23]

You will be removing Klein Forest this week because they play Lufkin Friday and The Woodlands (not on your list) beat them last Friday.
Klein Forest is already off my list. The first list is teams I've eliminated that have a good pwer rating.

The teams on my list are done by region with comments. Each region has a different post.

[lonny23]

Strake Jesuit has done good, but not sold me yet. Katy should do a good number on them.

unless Katy and SJ both go D-2..and its doubtful SJ will make it to the Regional final..they wont have to play Katy thanks to "RITA"-gate...ie..their principal and the alief principals voting not to make up the games canceled dute to "Rita"....they will dodge Katy this year.....how convenient....
I forgot about their agreement. I remembered Lufkin dodged a bullet! ;)

[CoveFan05]

I think ya'll are misinterpreting the initial post...those listed are the best teams that he's already eliminated...those aren't the final 56.


I got it now...I actually read through the post thanks KT..Sick Em DAWGS!!! State Bound

[lonny23]

Region 4

San Marcos probably won't run with the big dogs. The Clemens game is their chnace to stay on the list. I see list elimination coming.

Clemens and Judson are on a collision course. Neither team is going anywhere and whoever wins in Week 11 is favored to get to the semis and could win a title, but probably won't be favored to do so. Between the 2, I still think Judson wins, but not by as much as last year.

Most of the rest of 26-5A is still on the list, but some will obviously be eliminated because only 3 teams make the playoffs. I'll say team strength of those missing the playoffs are SA Madison, SA Roosevelt, and SA Reagan.

SA MacArthur is my 3rd place pick in 26-5A. That might get them some wins and they could make a good run if they get hot in a game. I don't think they'll get to the semis, but I also don't think it's a fluke they played SV well last week.

S Valley could get back to the title game. It's not a good idea to bet against them.

SA Clark might fall off my list in the next few weeks. They're not winning by enough points and I don't see them beating 26-5A.

I'll hedge my bets and say that SA O'Connor will be better than SA Jay come playoff time. O'Connor will play Judson tough, but won't beat them. Jay stands less of a chance for D2 success.

CC Carroll can pull some shockers and I'll watch them some more as a darkhorse. My guess is they do like the rest of South Texas.

PSJA, Harlingen, Harlingen South, Los Fresnos, and San Benito, and Brownsville Pace will probably be knocked off the list.

[lonny23]

This list will probably be under 40 teams when the playoffs start.

[dragonsdaddy]

lonny, do you honestly think the valley teams will survive the run in with whatever sa team shows up in the middle rounds? do you have any of the ep teams making the cut? you've lost a little credibility there me thinks.

[NewSherriffInTown]

What type of formula are you using to get the power points??

[lonny23]

lonny, do you honestly think the valley teams will survive the run in with whatever sa team shows up in the middle rounds? do you have any of the ep teams making the cut? you've lost a little credibility there me thinks.
No, I don't think anybody survives from the Valley. That's why I said I would probably eliminate all of them before the playoffs start.

EP Franklin is the best of the EP teams, but I don't see them winning several games.

You have to read all the posts in this thread. I started with a list of teams I've eliminated and then went region by region with thoughts on the last 56 teams. Of that 56, I indicated which one's I'm likely to cut in the next few weeks.

[lonny23]

What type of formula are you using to get the power points??
I'm looking at Jerry's ratings (texasfootballratings.com), but not just taking them verbatim and deciding who makes the cut. You'll see that I have teams left who are supposed to be worse than some I've eliminated.

It pretty much works itself back into the teams I favor are higher in the poll because they are the one's who are playing the best. I'm looking to see which teams are getting better, who consistently plays better than expected, who's making a push up in the rankings, and how teams compete against other good teams.

[dragonsdaddy]

No, I don't think anybody survives from the Valley. That's why I said I would probably eliminate all of them before the playoffs start.

EP Franklin is the best of the EP teams, but I don't see them winning several games.

You have to read all the posts in this thread. I started with a list of teams I've eliminated and then went region by region with thoughts on the last 56 teams. Of that 56, I indicated which one's I'm likely to cut in the next few weeks.
i'm just surprised they didn't go along with the ep teams. you are denigrating the remainder by leaving them in. why put off the inevitable. you have eliminated several much better teams than them already.

[lonny23]

i'm just surprised they didn't go along with the ep teams. you are denigrating the remainder by leaving them in. why put off the inevitable. you have eliminated several much better teams than them already.
The problem is who the teams play. If somebody plays SLC, Trinity, Midland, etc. and gets their head handed to them, I can eliminate them.

The guys in the Valley haven't played good teams and, although I think they won't compete, I don't want to just assume they won't. I'm trying to work this off of facts and not opinions. Obviously, I still have some subjectivity.

[eagleike]

lonny you can narrow it down even further:

Reg 4- SV, CJ, SC
Reg 3- Katy, Westfield, Shore, Humble
Reg 2- Lufkin, Longview, The Woodlands
Reg 1- SLC, ET, Abilene, Plano, Midland

But getting real:

Final 8: SV, CJ, Katy, Westfield, Lufkin, The Woodlands, ET, SLC

Same ole, same ole :rolleyes:

[lonny23]

lonny you can narrow it down even further:

Reg 4- SV, CJ, SC
Reg 3- Katy, Westfield, Shore, Humble
Reg 2- Lufkin, Longview, The Woodlands
Reg 1- SLC, ET, Abilene, Plano, Midland

But getting real:

Final 8: SV, CJ, Katy, Westfield, Lufkin, The Woodlands, ET, SLC

Same ole, same ole :rolleyes:
You need to add Cove back in and Humble probably comes out.

I don't see anybody else in Region 4 getting to the semis but the 3 teams here.

Region 3 pretty much has 3 teams (Katy, NS, and Westfield).

Westlake and Pflugerville (if D1) can get to the semis instead of The Woodlands. Region 2 D2 has 3 teams (Longview, Lufkin, and Cove).

Midland and Plano could crash the SLC-ET party in Region 1.

So if push comes to shove, my 56 turns into 16:

Midland
Trinity
SLC
Plano
Longview
Lufkin
Cove
Pflugerville
Woodlands
Westlake
Katy
North Shore
Westfield
Judson
SV
Clemens

[mad_fan]

Region 4

San Marcos probably won't run with the big dogs. The Clemens game is their chnace to stay on the list. I see list elimination coming.

Clemens and Judson are on a collision course. Neither team is going anywhere and whoever wins in Week 11 is favored to get to the semis and could win a title, but probably won't be favored to do so. Between the 2, I still think Judson wins, but not by as much as last year.

Most of the rest of 26-5A is still on the list, but some will obviously be eliminated because only 3 teams make the playoffs. I'll say team strength of those missing the playoffs are SA Madison, SA Roosevelt, and SA Reagan.

SA MacArthur is my 3rd place pick in 26-5A. That might get them some wins and they could make a good run if they get hot in a game. I don't think they'll get to the semis, but I also don't think it's a fluke they played SV well last week.

S Valley could get back to the title game. It's not a good idea to bet against them.

SA Clark might fall off my list in the next few weeks. They're not winning by enough points and I don't see them beating 26-5A.

I'll hedge my bets and say that SA O'Connor will be better than SA Jay come playoff time. O'Connor will play Judson tough, but won't beat them. Jay stands less of a chance for D2 success.

CC Carroll can pull some shockers and I'll watch them some more as a darkhorse. My guess is they do like the rest of South Texas.

PSJA, Harlingen, Harlingen South, Los Fresnos, and San Benito, and Brownsville Pace will probably be knocked off the list.


So you think both Mad and Mac will be 4-2 (district) going into the final game and Mac wins it? Or does Mad just fold early this year with a lose to Lee?

[lonny23]

So you think both Mad and Mac will be 4-2 (district) going into the final game and Mac wins it? Or does Mad just fold early this year with a lose to Lee?
I think Madison plays good this year, but loses to SV and Judson. They'll be 4-2 going into the Mac game. Mac will be 3-3 going into the Madison game, but get in the playoffs with a win and the tiebreaker. It will be a good game to end the year.

[Gridiron Gopher]

I think Madison plays good this year, but loses to SV and Judson. They'll be 4-2 going into the Mac game. Mac will be 3-3 going into the Madison game, but get in the playoffs with a win and the tiebreaker. It will be a good game to end the year.


Lonny23 is my new best friend! :)

[dragonsdaddy]

Lonny23 is my new best friend! :)
that of course means that with lonny's opinion and 75 cents, the coffee will at least be hot, if not fru fru.

[RedRage00]

Lonny23 is my new best friend! :)


Lonny has too much time on his hands :p

[lonny23]

that of course means that with lonny's opinion and 75 cents, the coffee will at least be hot, if not fru fru.
Sometimes the 3 quarters are worth more than my opinion!

[lonny23]

Lonny has too much time on his hands :p
That's what happens when you live someplace for 4 months and can't go off base.

[Reaganrattler07]

Lonny...how many Mac, Reagan and Madison games have you actually seen? :confused:

Cause don't you have to rely on our word of mouth of how good teams are?

[lonny23]

Lonny...how many Mac, Reagan and Madison games have you actually seen? :confused:

Cause don't you have to rely on our word of mouth of how good teams are?
Since I'm here, I've seen a grand total of zero this year. I haven't paid too much attention to what you guys have said about the teams you mentioned. I just go over their performance in my head and if it's better, worse, or about what I expect them to do each week.

[Reaganrattler07]

Since I'm here, I've seen a grand total of zero this year. I haven't paid too much attention to what you guys have said about the teams you mentioned. I just go over their performance in my head and if it's better, worse, or about what I expect them to do each week.

Well then technically you can't come up with a real good analysis....not meaning to insult you or anything I tip my hat to your effort but Mac didn't look any different from their first few games to when they played Reagan. Madison is just as good as last year. Reagan and Mac have undoubtedly improved.

[NewSherriffInTown]

Keeping Leander out of the equation for D2 in the region is not smart. I hope they take Cove to the woodshed.

[lonny23]

Keeping Leander out of the equation for D2 in the region is not smart. I hope they take Cove to the woodshed.
The official list is still at 56. I still don't see Leander beating Longview or Lufkin, though. Like always, I check out what the teams do each week.

[CoppellCowboy57]

I think that Coppell is best bad team in the state, after a big win the confidence will be back and Moody will be back..(i hope)

[lonny23]

I think that Coppell is best bad team in the state, after a big win the confidence will be back and Moody will be back..(i hope)
They might be. I had to take them out because it looks like they still can't compete with SLC.

[dragonsdaddy]

They might be. I had to take them out because it looks like they still can't compete with SLC.
if that's reason enough to kick a team off the podium, there are about 45-50 too many up there.

[lonny23]

if that's reason enough to kick a team off the podium, there are about 45-50 too many up there.
I didn't say beat; I said compete. Basically, you need to be able to stay within 20 of SLC. Anybody that can routinely stay within 14 can beat them if everything falls into place. I sure won't let 30 point losers stay.

[dragonsdaddy]

you still have way yonder too many teams that would opt for the no-compete clause if offered them. do you think the valley teams(seems like i have it out for them doesn't it) could stay within 3 tds of slc. not a freaking chance. you are using apples and oranges in your comparisons.

[lonny23]

you still have way yonder too many teams that would opt for the no-compete clause if offered them. do you think the valley teams(seems like i have it out for them doesn't it) could stay within 3 tds of slc. not a freaking chance. you are using apples and oranges in your comparisons.
I take proven losers and eliminate them. Hey, I won't keep the 56 teams and you need to hold your horses as I eliminate them. I didn't start the thread in Week 3 or 4 to finish it in Week 6 or 7. This thread goes to Week 10 and I'll weed through the teams. It's like training camp when you cut some better players before some others who aren't as good. I already made the mistake of cutting some people too soon and had to put them back in. Most of them still weren't good enough and I ended up cutting them again, but I did give them due process.

[lonny23]

I'm not looking at the playoff brackets and only giving a general feel for teams. I'll update this before the playoffs. If it's not here, I'll say it in another thread.

Region 1
Amarillo will probably be eliminated at some point. A possible dark horse for a few rounds, but probable 2nd round exit.

Abilene is going to win by losing. Midland beats them and the Eagles catch a break if Trinity goes D1. They keep winning, but they're going to lose this week and to a better team in the playoffs.

Midland is the best team in 3-5A. They'll give SLC a good run for their money in the 3rd round. This is a darkhorse title team nobody is talking about.

Mansfield Summit could win a few rounds, but I bet they're out by Round 2.

North Crowley hasn't played anybody. I don't have anything to say they'll do great in the playoffs, but they did it before and could possibly get on a decent playoff roll for a few rounds. I don't see a long run, though.

Southlake Carroll hasn't played anybody in their class or been challenged. They're a title contender, but not a shoo-in.

Euless Trinity is the same as SLC. No comp and blowing them out.

Irving MacArthur is fool's gold. They're good enough to win games, but only because they haven't played anybody better than them yet. Trinity will show they can't get out of Region 1 alive.

South Grande Prairie is a darkhorse. They're on an upswing and consistently beat the spread. They'll give Trinity a good game.

Arlington needs a little more oomph. They're on an upswing like SGP, but not as much of one. I don't see an extended run.

Flower Mound is not on my hot list. They'll do OK, but not make along run.

Plano is a team to watch out for. They could make a run to state.
OK,

I'm updating this to say Amarillo, Flower Mound, M Summit, N Crowley, Arlington, and I Mac are OUT. Abilene is the best team in 3-5A! :o At least the 6 I canned were the most likely victims! :D

[lonny23]

Region 2 analysis:

Carter will disappoint their fans again. They struggled too much this year with the better teams. Early exit city.

Garland is not on my hot list. Probably out in Round 1.

Rowlett started shaky, but has played well in the last 2. I'll watch some more, but guess they won't make long run right now.

Longview is a title contender.

John Tyler has a hope to be a darkhorse with games like last week.

Rockwall is probably just waiting to be eliminated by Longview.

Copperas Cove can win a title. They have the goods.

Lufkin is a title contender again.

Woodlands played NS good and has a chance. I don't think they have it to win the title, though.

Leander is a darkhorse. They aren't consistent enough to be a favorite to win very much.

Pflugerville has been getting better. Watch out for these guys.

Westlake hsan't won me over, yet.

Hays Consolidated probably won't last on my list.

Region 3 and Region 4 later on.
OK,

Here's an update. Rowlett, Garland, and John Tyler are out. JT didn't keep up their good performance from the previous week. Rockwall sure didn't get eliminated!

[lonny23]

Region 3:

Cy Creek will be eliminated at some point. They're in a weak region, but I don't see David in them.

Cy Fair might as well be Cy Creek.

Strake Jesuit has done good, but not sold me yet. Katy should do a good number on them.

Katy is taking care of business. They can get on a title roll.

FB Marshall has had no comp. They played well in some games and not as good as expected in others. I'll take the odds and say they won't be title contenders.

H Madison had 1 bad game, I'm betting that's how they'll play in November and exit early.

H Lamar is a team I'm watching just because of their scores. They're a darkhorse for me.

B West Brook is doing what they need to do, but isn't someone I can forecast right now. Maybe a darkhorse.

Humble will be a day late and a dollar short. A better team will beat them.

Westfield is just biding their time until the playoffs. They're good.

GPNS might be getting that title feeling back. Watch out for these guys.

G Ball will probably not stay among the 56. Early exit.

Pearland has done good in some games. Nothing right now to say they'll contend for state.
Update time. Cy Fair is NOT Cy Creek. Cy Creek plays in weak D2 and Cy Fair is in D1 and gets canned even though they beat Cy Creek.

[lonny23]

Region 4

San Marcos probably won't run with the big dogs. The Clemens game is their chnace to stay on the list. I see list elimination coming.

Clemens and Judson are on a collision course. Neither team is going anywhere and whoever wins in Week 11 is favored to get to the semis and could win a title, but probably won't be favored to do so. Between the 2, I still think Judson wins, but not by as much as last year.

Most of the rest of 26-5A is still on the list, but some will obviously be eliminated because only 3 teams make the playoffs. I'll say team strength of those missing the playoffs are SA Madison, SA Roosevelt, and SA Reagan.

SA MacArthur is my 3rd place pick in 26-5A. That might get them some wins and they could make a good run if they get hot in a game. I don't think they'll get to the semis, but I also don't think it's a fluke they played SV well last week.

S Valley could get back to the title game. It's not a good idea to bet against them.

SA Clark might fall off my list in the next few weeks. They're not winning by enough points and I don't see them beating 26-5A.

I'll hedge my bets and say that SA O'Connor will be better than SA Jay come playoff time. O'Connor will play Judson tough, but won't beat them. Jay stands less of a chance for D2 success.

CC Carroll can pull some shockers and I'll watch them some more as a darkhorse. My guess is they do like the rest of South Texas.

PSJA, Harlingen, Harlingen South, Los Fresnos, and San Benito, and Brownsville Pace will probably be knocked off the list.
Update with a twist. SA Marshall and Churchill are back in with good performances. They might play good in a playoff setting, too. CC Carroll, PSJA, B Pace, Harlingen, Harlingen South, Los Fresnos, and San Benito are out. They don't have the needed speed.

[lonny23]

I like to go back and look at this stuff. I throw in some good and look bad sometimes.