Evaluating the 2007 Gridiron Guide: A Look Back

[ktchamp97]

With the conclusion of the 2007 regular season, I thought it might be interesting to take a look back at our preseason predictions and see how they fared...

Click here to see the 2007 Gridiron Guide (http://www.5atexasfootball.com/GridironGuide07/Main/guide07_cover.htm)

Projected Playoff Teams:
- In Region 1, we correctly identified 25 of the 32 playoff teams (78%)
- In Region 2, we correctly identified 26/32 (81%)
- In Region 3, we correctly identified 24/32 (75%)
- In Region 4, we correctly identified 25/32 (78%)

Overall, we hit on 100 of the 128 (78%) playoff teams in June.

- Of the 28 we missed, 10 were picked as 5th place finishers
- We got at least three of the four playoff teams right in all but 3 districts...14-5A, 17-5A, and 29-5A (missed 3 of 4!)

District Champions:
- 14 of our projected district champions actually became district champions.
- 10 of our projected 2nd place finishers wound up winning their district.
- Of the 8 remaining champions, 3 weren't picked to make the playoffs...Temple, Stony Point, and Austin Bowie...the other 5 were all picked to finish third
- We picked Stony Point to finish dead last in 14-5A and they won it outright. :notworthy
- Burleson, Coppell, Garland, PSJA North were all picked to finish 1st, yet didn't make the playoffs. Ouch.

Preseason Top 25:
- 6 of the original Top 10 finished in the Top 10. Lufkin, DeSoto, and Westfield ended up #12, #14, and #17 respectively. Cedar Hill was the only preseason Top 10 team not ranked in the final poll.
- The biggest whiffs in this years preseason rankings include #11 Mesquite (6-4), #12 Garland (3-7), #18 Cedar Park (6-4), and Baytown Lee (5-5). Mesquite at least made the playoffs and Baytown Lee was devastated by injuries. Cedar Park was in the mix until the last couple of weeks. And Garland...ouch babe.
- Out of the group ranked #11-#20 preseason, only Smithson Valley finished the season ranked :puke...they ended up at #7. That settles it...next year we're only giving you the Top 10. :D Kidding...
- In the #21-#25 group, all but Austin High finished the season ranked, and they could've very easily been included in the final poll.
- Odessa Permian, Arlington Bowie, Plano, South Garland, and Cy Ridge were all named preseason "Darkhorses" and all finished #19 or better.
- SA Madison was named as one of our picks for "Most Improved" and went from 5-5 last year to 9-1 this year and with Devin Thomas, would likely be amongst the favorites to win it all.
- Overall, our Preseason Top 25 had a combined record of 198-52...an average record of 8-2.


Thoughts?

[SLC93]

I'll simply say that y'all rock. The percentages speak for themselves. Predicting the outcomes of high school athletics with any degree of success can be dicey, at best. The work that goes into your product is abundantly evident in it's quality. This was my first season as a participant. I spent the better part of a year just reading. It's been great and I look forward to many more. Thanks!

[Coug78]

You missed on Cooper! :p ;)

[Maxthedog]

You guys are closer to the mark than any other HS Football site or rag I frequent. Overall an Excellent job by the best site in Texas High School football. Your information is the best by far.

In Ma-skeets defense, they too had a slew of injuries, O-Line, D-Line and a very good RB, or you would have thit that one as well.

[toonman]

A great job and www.5atexasfootball.com is the definitive resource for Texas 5A Football. Not only do you provide a wealth of information and insight, you provide this forum for the fans to share their knowledge and experiences with everyone who is a member. There is not a question which cannot be answered by the collective membership and you - The Administrators.

The combination of the Administrators expertise and the wealth of knowledge within members list provides the greatest and best destination for anyone who is interested in Texas 5A Texas High School Football.

[OakTreeUp-n-Out]

Bottom line - this is the best High School football website on the internet. I have no clue how you guys can put together such a thorough and accurate pre-season guide. I find myself checking it multiple times a day, almost EVERY day, from release until late December.

Thanks for all you do.

[215A-Brook]

its interesting to look back and see how no one thought Falls would be good and here we are people saying that Falls could upset Katy arguably the #1 team in the state

[cougmantx]

its interesting to look back and see how no one thought Falls would be good and here we are people saying that Falls could upset Katy arguably the #1 team in the state


I sure don't know anyone from Katy that thought Falls wouldn't be any good! It's the one game in the playoffs that I dread the most, but, against this Katy team this year, I just don't see anyone beating them. Things happen, but this Katy team is incredible...imo! Great job on the projections.

As an after thought...I have only been following 5a football for 5 years and then, only as it pertains to Katy. It's great, with quality players, great fans, and teams that all of Texas can be proud of. Thanks to the board for the education that you are giving us neophites.

[forest99]

the fact that yall do the entire freakin state, and yalls prediction numbers are that accurate is just absolutely ridiculous!!! very impressive!!

[CyFallsMom]

You know, after I read the Gridiron Guide this year, I was almost depressed after seeing this:

Cy Falls is just on the outside looking in on the post-season here, but would be a definite playoff team in most other Region 3 districts. The fact is teams in this district are evenly matched against one another, and the teams projected ahead of Falls return more experience to start the season. Falls does return one of the top RBs in the district in senior Shane Turner. Junior QB Kolby Gray and senior DB Xavier Witchett are other players who will lead this Golden Eagle team along with Turner.

But now that the air has cleared, I feel much better:). I think 17-5a put a bit of a chink in the armor (JV and LC were listed a playoff contenders). I had been hearing all summer about how good our offense was going to be so I'm not sure where that was missed. It's not about who you return at Falls, it's about the heart, soul and sheer will (along with some nice talent) the new boys bring with them:D

But other than this, you guys do a FANTASTIC job - better than the Chronicle by far!! Or Dave Campbell!

[CyFallsMom]

its interesting to look back and see how no one thought Falls would be good and here we are people saying that Falls could upset Katy arguably the #1 team in the state

Well, we haven't gotten to that point this year (Katy v Falls) so I refrain from comment but I do know there was a lot of negativity when it came to Falls over the summer - This team and these coaches take that stuff seriously as do we fans!! Everyone looks at the stats and the teams on paper - they tend to take the human aspect out. This team, no matter how far they end up going, is special. They were "losers" according to many before the season even started and they have proven that there IS a nice program going over at Falls and that they are definitely not losers.

I got a PM from some guy telling me that we fans in Cy Fair are full of ourselves...to him I say, not any more than anyone else out there. We love our teams and are extremely proud of what these kids have accomplished and we have that right just as everyone else does!

[cougmantx]

They were "losers" according to many before the season even started and they have proven that there IS a nice program going over at Falls and that they are definitely not losers.

In my opinion, anybody that suits up, shows up and puts all they have into the game have a true warrior spirit and are in no way loosers, no matter what the stats say at the end of the year. Takes alot of guts to get hit week after week for a game that many won't play after they leave High School. Play hard, play safe and no injuries.

[TigerHat]

The question about Falls was this: would they be able to re-load after losing 62 seniors (one of the most talented senior classes I have ever seen). Falls has answered that question: they did reload - which is the mark of an elite program.

People in the Metroplex have little understanding of how good Falls really was last year - they saw only the Dr. Jekyll team (the one which lost to Jersey Village) in the state championship game, not the Mr. Hyde that beat Beaumont Westbrook, Katy, and SA MacArthur. I am not sure why there was a bad Cy Falls team and a good Cy Falls last year, but for some reason they both existed.

This year's team is much more consistently good. They are a very serious threat to make deep playoff runs both this year and in the future.

On a personal note: one of the players from the 2005 Cy Falls team (which gave Katy everything it wanted and more in the regional finals that year) is dating a former Katy cheerleader - I met him at the Mayde Creek game - top quality guy - I can understand why Cy Falls mom is so high on the players on her team.

[CyFallsMom]

That's great!! Hmmm - wonder if they met at the game!!?:). There are good quality kids in both of those programs.

As for Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde - I'm not sure what went on with that. I do know JV gives us a game every year no matter the circumstances..it is very competitive. Falls, last year anyway, tended to play at the level of the competition so in the big games (except for CH), they were playing out of their minds! I just don't know about the Cedar Hill thing. That William Cole just messed up everything for us;). But it went further than that. We had had some injuries that went up to the Katy game even and maybe they still weren't 100% or whatever but I still give immense credit to Cedar Hill. They were SO fast - faster than us and that's saying something. We are a bit faster this year and a couple of times Shane has taken off and we are like "hey, is that Cole??".:D

[TheVoice]

That's great!! Hmmm - wonder if they met at the game!!?:). There are good quality kids in both of those programs.

As for Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde - I'm not sure what went on with that. I do know JV gives us a game every year no matter the circumstances..it is very competitive. Falls, last year anyway, tended to play at the level of the competition so in the big games (except for CH), they were playing out of their minds! I just don't know about the Cedar Hill thing. That William Cole just messed up everything for us;). But it went further than that. We had had some injuries that went up to the Katy game even and maybe they still weren't 100% or whatever but I still give immense credit to Cedar Hill. They were SO fast - faster than us and that's saying something. We are a bit faster this year and a couple of times Shane has taken off and we are like "hey, is that Cole??".:D

You know, that's very similar to what happened to the Permian team in 1985, that played Cy-Fair in the semis and then got thoroughly thumped by Houston Yates in the finals. Like Falls after the Katy game, Mojo was so beaten up that they were just happy to survive that game. Not taking anything away from a fantastic Yates team... They were unstoppable. Just hurts to go into a State Championship game looking like refugees from a MASH unit. *smile*

[ch33rleader09]

I'll simply say that y'all rock. The percentages speak for themselves. Predicting the outcomes of high school athletics with any degree of success can be dicey, at best. The work that goes into your product is abundantly evident in it's quality. This was my first season as a participant. I spent the better part of a year just reading. It's been great and I look forward to many more. Thanks!

athletic abilty can not be measured by just certian player but by all players of the team

[slorch]

When is your NCAA coverage going to start?

signed,
Art Schleister

[HebronHawk]

You completely messed up in District 6. You gave a lot of credit to Coppell, which didn't make the playoffs, and you picked Hebron to finish no higher than 4th in the district. You missed the emergence of Marcus this year.

You only mentioned the single returning starter for Hebron, Joel Gray, and missed some other exciting players that were going to have their first varsity season. Tanner Marsh is an example, he is a top ten QB in the DFW area.

Given the size of the state and the challenge of covering it, you guys did pretty well. :notworthy It's no surprise that some of the weaknesses in coverage come out of the DFW area for you.

[KT2000]

Yeah, it's tough to know about the players who haven't established themselves on varsity yet. The huge majority of players we know about pre-season come off of the all-district lists the year before. We certainly don't expect to know more than some of you who live in these towns, just like we know not many have the knowledge we do about Katy.

[twcpfan1]

You guys named 6 of our guys on the players to watch list - good call
(of course I'd name our entire team, but that's just me) :laugh

Champ predicted a 2nd place finish in district behind Lufkin - another good call.

The District was stronger all around with the emergence of Conroe and the close finishes between Lufkin and The Woodlands schools. Not sure if you guys were expecting that.

[KT2000]

The District was stronger all around with the emergence of Conroe and the close finishes between Lufkin and The Woodlands schools. Not sure if you guys were expecting that.

I wasn't. Turns out champ wasn't nearly as crazy as I thought he was for picking College Park to finish 2nd.

[rebel27]

Pretty good job, fellas. You missed on the Madison defense though, no mention of them even with so many returning players. I know you slept on more SA talent in the position rankings and all-state selections but overall not bad at all.

[KT2000]

Pretty good job, fellas. You missed on the Madison defense though, no mention of them even with so many returning players. I know you slept on more SA talent in the position rankings and all-state selections but overall not bad at all.

Yes, they stepped up this year. They weren't very good last year, so we didn't see much suggesting they'd be as good as they turned out this season. It's impossible to predict all of it and we certainly don't expect to be able to.

[MojoMathMom]

i've told so many people how this has been my first season on the boards (and that this is the ONLY board i am on), so I think everything is awesome as far as i know!

So, what do we do after Dec????





no, i'm serious

[ruffshod]

i've told so many people how this has been my first season on the boards (and that this is the ONLY board i am on), so I think everything is awesome as far as i know!

So, what do we do after Dec????





no, i'm serious

Hang around here and wait until September.:D

[ruffshod]

Once again, the Admins have done a great job.

[mad_fan]

The only thing that continues to bother me is the fact that in the pre-season top-25...24 teams names are spelled out...
http://www.5atexasfootball.com/GridironGuide07/Top25/top_25.htm
Abbreviated SA Madison Mavericks kind of stands out...
Bias was noted then...and again now...

[KT2000]

The only thing that continues to bother me is the fact that in the pre-season top-25...24 teams names are spelled out...
http://www.5atexasfootball.com/GridironGuide07/Top25/top_25.htm
Abbreviated SA Madison Mavericks kind of stands out...
Bias was noted then...and again now...

Yeah, well your idol has a weird last name. :eek:

Oh, I went there alright.

[HUM398]

i've told so many people how this has been my first season on the boards (and that this is the ONLY board i am on), so I think everything is awesome as far as i know!

So, what do we do after Dec????





no, i'm serious

Greats are resurrected and discussion is beyond what we would call "heated"...

i like to call it "banning season." instead of offseason.

[The King]

Those are great %. There are always suprises, that is why the games are played.

Good forsight in haveing MOJO as a darkhorse.

[HebronHawk]

Yeah, it's tough to know about the players who haven't established themselves on varsity yet. The huge majority of players we know about pre-season come off of the all-district lists the year before. We certainly don't expect to know more than some of you who live in these towns, just like we know not many have the knowledge we do about Katy.

Just a suggestion, but you might talk to some of the locals in preseason if you want that info.

[lonny23]

The only thing that continues to bother me is the fact that in the pre-season top-25...24 teams names are spelled out...
http://www.5atexasfootball.com/GridironGuide07/Top25/top_25.htm
Abbreviated SA Madison Mavericks kind of stands out...
Bias was noted then...and again now...
How about this? They listed the playoff brackets in order 1 vs. 2, 13 vs. 14, etc, for the whole brackets but goofed one up.

Yep, Katy (18) came before Strake Jesuit (17)!:p

[DragonBand06]

Yeah, well your idol has a weird last name. :eek:

Oh, I went there alright.

Kryzchewski? :D

[DragonBand06]

Have you guys seen the Weird Al movie "UHF"?
All I have to say is, you guys could give ESPiN a run for its money.:notworthy

[mad_fan]

Yeah, well your idol has a weird last name. :eek:

Oh, I went there alright.

Wide???
Is that you???

Oh, I went THERE alright...