How early can you tell about state champs?

[lonny23]

I'm here to say you can't tell until you play the title game in most years. All the early season games have told me so far is that there are several teams out there that have staked their claim as a contender, but I'll be the first to say nobody has a stake to the title in either division.

Longview, Katy, Westfield, and Trinity have been impressive. They'll be in the mix for a title.

SLC and SV have moved along, but not been noticeable. They'll be around, too.

You can count on both Cove and Judson being hard outs in the playoffs. North Shore has another good team. I still think Abilene and Lufkin have noise to make in the playoffs.

Outside of the 11 teams I just listed, you'll have anywhere from 5-10 more strong teams that can make deep playoff runs. The truth is that any of these 16-21 teams can beat another one under the right circumstances and it won't be a huge surprise.

I'll start eliminating teams for the title this week.

[westlake]

I dont think you can just go by who looks good now, all you have to do is be in the top 3 in your district then you have a shot. Its anyones game.

Westlake could be there :D

[slcdragons]

The first time I thought the 2002 Dragons could be possible state champs was the game against Lewisville High. The Farmers were preseason #1 in the DFW area. The Dragons went to Max Goldsmith Stadium and hung over half a hundred on the Farmers, including I believe 35 in the 2nd quarter. :eek:

[ktCarl]

Correct, Lonny. It's too early to tell for any team right now and the underdog team can rise up and bite you in the Title game.

[Favpack]

Euless Trinity and Spring Westfield appear to be CLEAR front-runners in DI.

In DII - I like Smithson Valley, Southlake Carroll, Katy and Longview, with Lufkin and Abilene High being just a step behind those teams. I see only Katy, however, as really being a team that CAN beat SLC right now, with SV being a bit behind them. Longview, Lufkin and Abilene will have to play much better ball to stick with SLC.

Dallas Carter is a team to pay close attention to - they beat Garland last night. CCOVe will be there in the thick as well.

[RidgePride]

Euless Trinity and Spring Westfield appear to be CLEAR front-runners in DI.

In DII - I like Smithson Valley, Southlake Carroll, Katy and Longview, with Lufkin and Abilene High being just a step behind those teams. I see only Katy, however, as really being a team that CAN beat SLC right now, with SV being a bit behind them. Longview, Lufkin and Abilene will have to play much better ball to stick with SLC.

Dallas Carter is a team to pay close attention to - they beat Garland last night. CCOVe will be there in the thick as well.
Carter always looks good early, But they are too one diminsional to win it all.

[CoppellCowboy57]

For the past 3years Coppell has played at least 1 State Champion or State Finalist 4 years ago Denton Ryan and SLC (both won state) - 3 Years Denton Ryan and SLC (both lost in the state championship), 2 years ago, SLC (won state)

[lonny23]

I dont think you can just go by who looks good now, all you have to do is be in the top 3 in your district then you have a shot. Its anyones game.

Westlake could be there :D
Westlake could be there, but don't kid yourself. I can safely eliminate over 60% of the teams from title contention now and some of those guys will make the playoffs.

[lonny23]

Euless Trinity and Spring Westfield appear to be CLEAR front-runners in DI.

In DII - I like Smithson Valley, Southlake Carroll, Katy and Longview, with Lufkin and Abilene High being just a step behind those teams. I see only Katy, however, as really being a team that CAN beat SLC right now, with SV being a bit behind them. Longview, Lufkin and Abilene will have to play much better ball to stick with SLC.

Dallas Carter is a team to pay close attention to - they beat Garland last night. CCOVe will be there in the thick as well.
I don't think Trinity or Westfield are clear favorites and I still think Judson beats Westfield in the semis.

Until Carter can actually put a good run together, I'm hedging my bets on them and that's with a coach who has 2 titles and 3 title games under his belt.

In D2, SLC has not shown that they're going to run away with the title. It could be Longview's year, but they have to figure out how to beat Lufkin.

[StormingCowboy]

Carter always looks good early, But they are too one diminsional to win it all.


Correction: Carter WAS ONE-DIMENTIONAL. They are no where near 50-50 pass/run but they will keep you honest. QB Michael Crabtree will make teams respect his arm. And unless you just have a great defense, you will have a hard time stopping their run anyway.

Secondly, I've always been taught that Defense wins championships. Their defense this year reminds me of Carter teams of old. And they are getting better and better every week.

I'm not trying to put them in state, but don't sleep on them.

[STJL41]

After being a fan of high school football for so long, I can honestly say that, unless a huge upset happens (or a string of upsets) then the state champs will probably be one of the same few teams people are always talking about on these boards. Generally, before the season even starts, we have a general idea of who will go deep into the playoffs. Of course there will always be bracket busters that will toss a monkey wrench into the gears, but for the most part the year to year powerhouses are the only ones with a legit shot at the title.

A few teams, of course, is a relative term. I'm not sure how many Class 5A football teams there are in Texas, but you could probably whittle it down to 10-12 teams and have a legit shot of getting both the D I and D II winners in there. When you consider the vast amount of high schools in Texas, having it down to 10-12 schools is cutting out a substantial chunk of non-contenders.

[c-lisle]

Euless Trinity and Spring Westfield appear to be CLEAR front-runners in DI.

In DII - I like Smithson Valley, Southlake Carroll, Katy and Longview, with Lufkin and Abilene High being just a step behind those teams. I see only Katy, however, as really being a team that CAN beat SLC right now, with SV being a bit behind them. Longview, Lufkin and Abilene will have to play much better ball to stick with SLC.

Dallas Carter is a team to pay close attention to - they beat Garland last night. CCOVe will be there in the thick as well.

Longview is playing solid ball. This year most defenses will not be able to stop our run game, giving us the ability to control the clock. Against WM we had a couple of drives that consumed almost the whole quarter. We have a much improved pass game this year. Staying healthy will be the key for Lobos this year. Hopefully we can get one of our starting LBs back.

[baylordad]

Lots of great opinions out here but most teams that can make the play off are in it. My example is in 1992 Trinity went 5 - 5 in regular season and went all the way to the state finals. Good luck to all.

[lonny23]

Lots of great opinions out here but most teams that can make the play off are in it. My example is in 1992 Trinity went 5 - 5 in regular season and went all the way to the state finals. Good luck to all.
What happened when they played the title game? :p

[lonny23]

After being a fan of high school football for so long, I can honestly say that, unless a huge upset happens (or a string of upsets) then the state champs will probably be one of the same few teams people are always talking about on these boards. Generally, before the season even starts, we have a general idea of who will go deep into the playoffs. Of course there will always be bracket busters that will toss a monkey wrench into the gears, but for the most part the year to year powerhouses are the only ones with a legit shot at the title.

A few teams, of course, is a relative term. I'm not sure how many Class 5A football teams there are in Texas, but you could probably whittle it down to 10-12 teams and have a legit shot of getting both the D I and D II winners in there. When you consider the vast amount of high schools in Texas, having it down to 10-12 schools is cutting out a substantial chunk of non-contenders.
I have to agree with you and you only have a little over 20 that will get to the quarterfinals. I'm going to start a thread of teams I'm eliminating now.

[baylordad]

What happened when they played the title game? :p
We got our butts kicked by Converse Judson like 56-0. Jerrod Douglas probably gained 400 yards. It was a great ride though.

[lonny23]

We got our butts kicked by Converse Judson like 56-0. Jerrod Douglas probably gained 400 yards. It was a great ride though.
I had to mess with you on that one. It was 52-0 and the same teams might play for the title this year and Trinity might win this time.

[mad_fan]

Re: How early can you tell about state champs?

From reading this thread, I propose one possible answer...

NOT after week 0, 1, 2 or 3.

[NMHS fan]

I'm intrigued by Mesquite. Keep your eye on this team. If not this year, then the next two. They are supposedly loaded with young talent, and seem to have a lot of heart. I wish I could say the same for my Stallions, but I have some deep concerns.

[dragons08]

my guess after week 14 for D1, and after week 15 for D2, just my guess... :D

[DragonFan]

There will be a time in a season or a game that proves to the players and the fans that this years team is the one to be champ! Sometimes that game is in the regular season sometimes it is in the playoffs.

After 3 non-district games it is very hard to say who those teams are. I know Trinity looks good but they have not played any teams that are playing well right now.

SLC has won 3 games by wide margins and has a lot of early press but they are team that lost a lot of big playmakers. They have a lot of new kids that are stepping in to be the playmakers. Are they the best team in the state with 3 games played? They are one of several teams that are 3-0. Does a 3-0 record mean anything special? Not really. There were a lot of teams that had only 1 or 2 loses but still did not win the championship. Last year Denton Ryan only had 2 loses. Both were to SLC. The last one eliminated Denton Ryan from the playoffs. Lufkin only had 1 loss, Abilene only had 1 loss. It is just that those losses were the ones that eliminated them from the playoffs.

In other words, It is hard to say who has the inside track until week 14 and 15. Nobody so far has seemed to be the team of destiny this year yet.

[lonny23]

my guess after week 14 for D1, and after week 15 for D2, just my guess... :D
RULE #1

If you're going to smart off, at least get your facts straight. :p

D1 plays 15 weeks and D2 plays 16 weeks! :D

[lonny23]

There will be a time in a season or a game that proves to the players and the fans that this years team is the one to be champ! Sometimes that game is in the regular season sometimes it is in the playoffs.

After 3 non-district games it is very hard to say who those teams are. I know Trinity looks good but they have not played any teams that are playing well right now.

SLC has won 3 games by wide margins and has a lot of early press but they are team that lost a lot of big playmakers. They have a lot of new kids that are stepping in to be the playmakers. Are they the best team in the state with 3 games played? They are one of several teams that are 3-0. Does a 3-0 record mean anything special? Not really. There were a lot of teams that had only 1 or 2 loses but still did not win the championship. Last year Denton Ryan only had 2 loses. Both were to SLC. The last one eliminated Denton Ryan from the playoffs. Lufkin only had 1 loss, Abilene only had 1 loss. It is just that those losses were the ones that eliminated them from the playoffs.

In other words, It is hard to say who has the inside track until week 14 and 15. Nobody so far has seemed to be the team of destiny this year yet.
There are several key things to look at:

How does a team perform in a big game?

Can a team win a big game without playing their best?

Do they take care of business and blow out the chumps?

I eliminated some teams from title consideration because they've already shown they won't win a game against a good opponent. If you lose to a good team, you at least have to be competitive.

Team records aren't the be-all, end-all because everybody has a different schedule strength. If you can play good team and compete, you'll be there in the playoffs. When you win big games, you increase your chances for great playoff success.

None of the El Paso teams will do much in the playoffs because they play a bunch of chumps in non-district and won't be able to handle the increased skill of the playoff teams.

[DragonFan]

In 14 weeks you will now who is playing for the D1 championship and in 15 weeks you will know who is playing for the D2 championship. I was allowing one more week for each division to have bragging rights about who was going to be State Champions!

I generaly have my facts straight but my spelling is a different matter! (See my name for one!) :)

[dragons08]

RULE #1

If you're going to smart off, at least get your facts straight. :p

D1 plays 15 weeks and D2 plays 16 weeks! :D
i know, but you'll know the 4 teams that have a chance! i thought it was refering to state championship games, so thats why i did it that week, plus it will tell us whos the possible state champs from that point, so we at least guess one game...

[lonny23]

OK, guys I'll give you a narrow (very narrow) benefit of the doubt on what you were trying to say.

[KT2000]

Lonny,

Great question. I think you can definitely see the potential in teams to be championship level at this point. Obviously, many things have to fall in place over the course of a season but I really believe you know a contender or potential contender when you see them whether it be Zero Week or first couple rounds of the playoffs.

Personally, I've labeled a group of seven or eight teams that I think the two state champions will be produced from. It's changed very little from just before zero week through what we've seen in the first few weeks. I like keeping this list each season and update it each week. It's really just for my information and to keep track of what I'm thinking as the season goes along. I've hit four of the six state champions since 2002 using that method.

I don't think it's hard to label that select group of contenders very early, and see it hold up well. However, sometimes you have a team pop up when you don't see it coming in the playoffs like Midland nearly did in 2002 or Katy in 2003. For the most part, I believe I can accurately identify where at least one of the champions will come from very early on through a little research.

[dragons08]

OK, guys I'll give you a narrow (very narrow) benefit of the doubt on what you were trying to say.
think im stupid? i know we went 16-0, therefore making 16 weeks in D2, im not THAT dumb!

[lonny23]

Lonny,

Great question. I think you can definitely see the potential in teams to be championship level at this point. Obviously, many things have to fall in place over the course of a season but I really believe you know a contender or potential contender when you see them whether it be Zero Week or first couple rounds of the playoffs.

Personally, I've labeled a group of seven or eight teams that I think the two state champions will be produced from. It's changed very little from just before zero week through what we've seen in the first few weeks. I like keeping this list each season and update it each week. It's really just for my information and to keep track of what I'm thinking as the season goes along. I've hit four of the six state champions since 2002 using that method.

I don't think it's hard to label that select group of contenders very early, and see it hold up well. However, sometimes you have a team pop up when you don't see it coming in the playoffs like Midland nearly did in 2002 or Katy in 2003. For the most part, I believe I can accurately identify where at least one of the champions will come from very early on through a little research.
Is it too much to ask who's on your list this year?

[KT2000]

Well, the rankings give it away for the most part but champ and I compromise in the rankings sometimes when we have a disagreement over a certain team or teams.

Southlake Carroll- still don't see anyone projected in Division II that will challenge them in the Region. If the Dragons should go Division I, Trinity would stand the best chance.

Euless Trinity- in our top eight to start the year, and are proving worthy of that ranking so far. A real threat to get back to the semis and possibly the state title game especially if Carroll stays in Division II.

Westfield- don't appear to have missed a beat from last year. Dominating opponents and are a D1 lock as biggest school in District. Toughest challenges would come from Katy (if D1) and North Shore (D1 lock) in R3.

Longview- have only played one Texas team so far, but look like they have the players to have another very good year. However, the Lufkin hurdle still looms in the Division II playoffs.

Katy- off to a strong start with a balanced, versatile team overall. A real possibility of going DI for the first time since 1997 depending on district. Most of Region 3's power is D1, so D2 would definitely be easier road from R3.

Lufkin- up and down start to the year, but have one of the best defenses in the state. Need some questions answered on offense to avoid upset special. Have Longview's number to get out of Region.

Smithson Valley- much easier road through D2 than D1 in R4. Don't see R4 team projecting in DII really offering much resistance for the Rangers. Plus, Coach Hill seems to have the whole playoff thing pegged.

Judson- biggest challenges in region will come from Clemens and possibly O'Connor. Will be a very tough game against whoever emerges from Region 3 this year with R3 boasting 2, possibly 3 contenders projecting D1.

On the radar....Copperas Cove and North Shore.

[drgnbkr]

Well, the rankings give it away for the most part but champ and I compromise in the rankings sometimes when we have a disagreement over a certain team or teams.

Southlake Carroll- still don't see anyone projected in Division II that will challenge them in the Region. If the Dragons should go Division I, Trinity would stand the best chance.

Euless Trinity- in our top eight to start the year, and are proving worthy of that ranking so far. A real threat to get back to the semis and possibly the state title game especially if Carroll stays in Division II.

Westfield- don't appear to have missed a beat from last year. Dominating opponents and are a D1 lock as biggest school in District. Toughest challenges would come from Katy (if D1) and North Shore (D1 lock) in R3.

Longview- have only played one Texas team so far, but look like they have the players to have another very good year. However, the Lufkin hurdle still looms in the Division II playoffs.

Katy- off to a strong start with a balanced, versatile team overall. A real possibility of going DI for the first time since 1997 depending on district. Most of Region 3's power is D1, so D2 would definitely be easier road from R3.

Lufkin- up and down start to the year, but have one of the best defenses in the state. Need some questions answered on offense to avoid upset special. Have Longview's number to get out of Region.

Smithson Valley- much easier road through D2 than D1 in R4. Don't see R4 team projecting in DII really offering much resistance for the Rangers. Plus, Coach Hill seems to have the whole playoff thing pegged.

Judson- biggest challenges in region will come from Clemens and possibly O'Connor. Will be a very tough game against whoever emerges from Region 3 this year with R3 boasting 2, possibly 3 contenders projecting D1.

On the radar....Copperas Cove and North Shore.

Nice summary KT...lots of facts and objectivity...

[lonny23]

See the next post. I didn't know this one took.

[lonny23]

Well, the rankings give it away for the most part but champ and I compromise in the rankings sometimes when we have a disagreement over a certain team or teams.

Southlake Carroll- still don't see anyone projected in Division II that will challenge them in the Region. If the Dragons should go Division I, Trinity would stand the best chance.

Euless Trinity- in our top eight to start the year, and are proving worthy of that ranking so far. A real threat to get back to the semis and possibly the state title game especially if Carroll stays in Division II.

Westfield- don't appear to have missed a beat from last year. Dominating opponents and are a D1 lock as biggest school in District. Toughest challenges would come from Katy (if D1) and North Shore (D1 lock) in R3.

Longview- have only played one Texas team so far, but look like they have the players to have another very good year. However, the Lufkin hurdle still looms in the Division II playoffs.

Katy- off to a strong start with a balanced, versatile team overall. A real possibility of going DI for the first time since 1997 depending on district. Most of Region 3's power is D1, so D2 would definitely be easier road from R3.

Lufkin- up and down start to the year, but have one of the best defenses in the state. Need some questions answered on offense to avoid upset special. Have Longview's number to get out of Region.

Smithson Valley- much easier road through D2 than D1 in R4. Don't see R4 team projecting in DII really offering much resistance for the Rangers. Plus, Coach Hill seems to have the whole playoff thing pegged.

Judson- biggest challenges in region will come from Clemens and possibly O'Connor. Will be a very tough game against whoever emerges from Region 3 this year with R3 boasting 2, possibly 3 contenders projecting D1.

On the radar....Copperas Cove and North Shore.
I couldn't agree with you more. I always view this stuff based upon who stands the best chance to get to the semis.

Division 1

You know Trinity has a good chance to be there for R1. Tyler Lee used to have somewhat of an easy path in R2, but I don't see the great team there this year. Westfield and North Shore are R3 and Katy is a maybe. R4 is Judson and Clemens.

Division 2

SLC looks like the team in R1. Longview and Lufkin are still the best in D2, with Cove putting up a strong argument. R3 is going to be hurting if Katy goes D1. Smithson Valley doesn't have competition in R4.

You can put 26-5A in the semis if Judson beats Clemens in Bi-District.

[KT2000]

If Westfield, North Shore and Katy all go D1 this year I honestly couldn't tell you who would even be favorites to emerge from R3 in D2. That'd be something else. We'd probably be talking about teams like Humble and Galveston Ball in R3, D2 if that happened. R3 is extremely front loaded. Needless to say, Smithson Valley would have a pretty clear path back in that scenario on paper.

[lonny23]

I'm here to say you can't tell until you play the title game in most years. All the early season games have told me so far is that there are several teams out there that have staked their claim as a contender, but I'll be the first to say nobody has a stake to the title in either division.

Longview, Katy, Westfield, and Trinity have been impressive. They'll be in the mix for a title.

SLC and SV have moved along, but not been noticeable. They'll be around, too.

You can count on both Cove and Judson being hard outs in the playoffs. North Shore has another good team. I still think Abilene and Lufkin have noise to make in the playoffs.

Outside of the 11 teams I just listed, you'll have anywhere from 5-10 more strong teams that can make deep playoff runs. The truth is that any of these 16-21 teams can beat another one under the right circumstances and it won't be a huge surprise.

I'll start eliminating teams for the title this week.
I thought this thread deserved another turn at the top.

[lonny23]

I couldn't agree with you more. I always view this stuff based upon who stands the best chance to get to the semis.

Division 1

You know Trinity has a good chance to be there for R1. Tyler Lee used to have somewhat of an easy path in R2, but I don't see the great team there this year. Westfield and North Shore are R3 and Katy is a maybe. R4 is Judson and Clemens.

Division 2

SLC looks like the team in R1. Longview and Lufkin are still the best in D2, with Cove putting up a strong argument. R3 is going to be hurting if Katy goes D1. Smithson Valley doesn't have competition in R4.

You can put 26-5A in the semis if Judson beats Clemens in Bi-District.
Hey, this guy should post more often.;)